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Decision Intelligence

The greatest determinant of your success will be the quality of your decisions. We examine frameworks for understanding and reducing risk while enabling opportunities. Topics include Black Swans, Gray Rhinos, Foresight, Strategy, Stratigames, Business Intelligence and Intelligent Enterprises. Leadership in the modern age is also a key topic in this domain.

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Disruptive/ Exponential Technology

We track the rapidly changing world of technology with a focus on what leaders need to know to improve decision-making. Gain insights into the future of tech in a way that enables optimized action. We provide deep insights into Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, Cloud Computing, Quantum Computing, Security Technology, Space Technology.

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Security and Resiliency

Security and resiliency topics include geopolitical and cyber risk, cyber conflict, cyber diplomacy, cybersecurity, nation state conflict, non-nation state conflict, global health, international crime, supply chain and terrorism.

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Community

The OODA community includes a broad group of decision-makers, analysts, entrepreneurs, government leaders and tech creators. Interact with and learn from your peers via online monthly meetings, OODA Salons, the OODAcast, in-person conferences and an online forum. We have established a workspace for member collaboration using Slack. Members are eligible to use private rooms created for member to member interaction and collaboration. The community also has access to a member only video library.

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OODA Loop members receive access to actionable intelligence, analysis and insight on global security, technology and business issues, including special daily and weekly reports. Find the content you need by using the search box at the top of every page or browse by:

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Country Studies and Threat Briefs

These reports provide a solid baseline that can inform your decision-making and put our daily reports into better context. Please contact us for questions or comments on any of these reports.

Russia Threat Brief: Russia should be considered a kleptocracy, where the rule of law exists as long as it supports the objectives of the state and the ruling oligarchs. All U.S. businesses should exercise extreme caution before doing business in or with Russia. Our special report on The Russian Threat captures insights on the full spectrum of Russian capabilities and intention, including their actions in cyber conflict. For more read the continuously updated Russia Threat Brief

China Threat Brief: Several countries have the capability to inflict harm on U.S. interests. However, China is the only one who has declared an intent to challenge the U.S. for global supremacy. China remains a closed society where challenges to party rule are met with harsh, sole crushing response. China is a powerhouse, but one with weaknesses. The same statement carries over to military and intelligence domains. For more read the continuously updated China Threat Brief.

Iranian Threat Brief: Iran has been investing heavily in cyber operations and is experienced in conducting both espionage and attack. Iran is undemocratic, with power centered in a Supreme Leader (Ali Khamenei). A President exists but has little power compared to the Supreme Leader. But below them is a vibrant and powerful country of over 81 million. Iranian education systems and scientific pursuits make them a technologically empowered nation that can mount surprisingly sophisticated cyber operations. For more read the continuously updated: Iranian Threat Brief.

DPRK Threat Brief: North Korea describes itself as a “self-reliant socialist state” but it is really best described as a Stalinist dictatorship. Leader Kim Jong-un holds power and dominates all functions through a mix of violence, rewards and intense propaganda. A common misperception about the DPRK is that they are so backwards and poor that they cannot mount a modern cyber war. But reality is that their policy of “Songun” (military first) means there are resources for capabilities considered strategic, and that includes cyber war. For more read the continuously updated DPRK Threat Brief.

Special Reports

OODA Best Practices for Agile Cybersecurity: Members of the OODA expert network continuously track best practices for policy, procedures, technology and governance related to cyber defense.  We work directly defending enterprises in cyber defense and maintain an always up to date list of actions in a form designed to help any organization stay as agile as possible in the face of dynamic adversaries. Read more at the OODA Special Report on Best Practices for Agile Cybersecurity.

Are you making the most of your data holdings? If you want to leverage your data to the better of your business you need to treat it like a weapon and use it to gain advantage over others. This is not just about your technical architecture, this is about your attitude. For our best practices on how to do so see the OODA Guide to Using Your Data As A Weapon. 

OODA Original Reports

  • Social Engineering Remains the Coin of the Realm for Ransomware Gangs (or APTs- Advanced Persistent Threats)
    A recent 60 Minutes segment was a great primer on what the cybersecurity community knows all too well—that good old-fashioned social engineering (a hustle or a con—like some of the stunts Sinatra and the gang pulled in the original Ocean’s 11) remains the main point of entry for most large-scale ransomware attacks. Can someone say the Podesta emails (a fake password change email from the IT department)? Or Stuxnet (which came down to, in the end, someone unwittingly walking into the Iranian nuclear facility with a USB drive with malware on it).  It was also great to see a vehicle for the broad exposure of the concepts of social engineering to the general public – as it definitely suffers from a few cognitive biases.  We have been on the social engineering (aka Human Risk Management or Human Engineering beat for a while – providing resources to our readership and the OODA Network regularly.  Those resources are compiled here.  
  • What Next? The Passage of U.S. Aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan
    Here are experts from the Wilson Center and EU policymakers reacting to the recent approval of supplemental military aid from the U.S. to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan—all in the context of the future of the U.S. defense industrial base debate. 
  • “Earth-2”: AI Plus Climate Data Equals the Ultimate Digital Twin Project
    The concept of a digital twin of the Earth’s climate, leveraging geospatial data, climate sensors, and artificial intelligence (AI), presents a transformative potential for our understanding and management of the planet’s climate system. This digital twin, a high-fidelity virtual model of Earth’s climate, could revolutionize our approach to environmental stewardship, disaster response, and climate resilience.  Details here. 
  • Will Military Aid Abroad Accelerate the Disintermediation of the U.S. Defense Industrial Base?
    Before and after the recent passage of military aid for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, many credible outlets offered wide-ranging perspectives on the impact on the domestic U.S. defense industrial base by continued aid to the world from the “Arsenal of Democracy.”  Details here.
  • The UN Security Council Has a Role in International Cybersecurity
    In early April 2024, the United Nations’ (UN) Security Council held a meeting on the “Evolving Cyber Threat Landscape and Its Implications for the Maintenance of International Peace and Security.”  
  • Biologically Engineered DNA Data Storage will be a Layer of the Convergent Exponential Tech Stack
    We argue that the bioeconomy will lead all industry sectors into a fascinating (and anything but fear-inducing) future filled with abundance and promise – including DNA-based data storage capabilities.  DNA Data Storage?  Yes.  Let’s start there.  
  • The Philosophers’ Code: Enhancing Cybersecurity Strategy with Timeless Wisdom
    The teachings of ancient philosophers can provide actionable insights in the rapidly evolving field of cybersecurity. It might seem surprising at first, but the wisdom of history’s great thinkers offers perspectives that are profoundly relevant to today’s digital security challenges.
  • Moody’s on the “Recoding” of Entire Industries, Including The Financial Sector, by the Convergence of AI and the Blockchain
    A recent headline from Moody’s reads “Convergence of AI and blockchain could recode multiple industries.”  The notion of the “recoding” of an industry sector is compelling – as it suggests a more nuanced, code-level transformation of an industry sector (as opposed to just the disruption that accompanies disintermediation). We explore the nuances of the Moody’s report. 
  • Findings from the DEFCON31 AI Village Inaugural Generative AI Red Team Challenge
    As we head into the 2024 RSAC through the Defcon/BlackHat Conference jag, we look at the final report from the first-of-its-kind Generative AI Red Team Challenge, held last year in the AI Village at Defcon31.  Find an overview of the event report here. 
  • The OODA Network Discusses Drone Countermeasures, Border Risk, and International Crime Syndicates
    In March, OODA Network Member John Sullivan shared with the network an overview of current threat vectors and strategic challenges at the border relative to the presence of various international crime syndicates in North America. He also shared his perspective on the primary topic of the monthly meeting – The Exponential Pace of Technological Change. Find a summary of this invaluable global risk briefing here. 
  • DoD’s Unprecedented Commitment to a “Commercial Space Integration Strategy”
    The much anticipated “Commercial Space Integration Strategy” was released by the Department of Defense in early April 2024 (weeks before the release of the Space Force Commercial Space Strategy). The DoD strategy document outlines the “broad guidance for where and why the Pentagon will try to increase its use of commercial space technologies.”  Details here.
  • Continued AI Integration Drives the Race Between Attackers and Defenders
    AI versus AI will be the central drama, but the outcome depends profoundly on human choices around how intelligently we govern this technology. 
  • Is Your Board of Directors Integrating AI Governance into its Corporate Oversight and Disclosure Efforts?
    We found a compelling ISS-Corporate memorandum  – AI and Board Of Directors Oversight: AI Governance Appears on Corporate Radar – authored by Veronica Nikitas.  The report provides a robust quantitative framework for this topic’s core issues. In this post, you will find the key takeaways and excerpts from the report, as well as a forward-thinking conclusion by the author. 
  • What Does the Nuclear Age Teach Us About Managing Escalation?
    RAND researchers explore the “lessons and challenges from three historical crises between nuclear-armed powers” when managing the potential escalation of nuclear conflict—insights apropos to the tinderbox that is the Middle East and ongoing threats of nuclear escalation in Europe by Russian President Vladamir Putin.  A summary of the RAND report and insights can be found here. 
  • In the Wake of the Iranian Drone Swarm and Ballistic Missile Attack on Israel: Future Scenarios
    The war in Ukraine was the beginning, and the Iranian attack on Israel by a swarm of over 200 drones and ballistic missiles is now the tail end of an elongated inflection point – propelling geopolitics into a new era of 21st Century “Algorithmic Warfare.”   A tick-tock of developments and links to live update resources in Israel can be found here – followed by an OODA Loop Scenario analysis.
  • Space Force Releases the Much Anticipated Inaugural U.S. Commercial Space Strategy
    Last week, the U.S. Space Force (USSF) released the much-anticipated “Commercial Space Strategy”—the first such strategy released by the USSF—which commits to realigning funding and prioritizing commercial space opportunities. Details from the USSF CSS are available here. 
  • Perspectives on AI Hallucinations: Code Libraries and Developer Ecosystems
    Our hypothesis on AI Hallucinations is based on a quote from the OODAcon 2024 panel, “The Next Generative AI Surprise: “Artificial Intelligence hallucinations may sometimes provide an output that is a very creative interpretation of something or an edge case that proves useful.” With that framing in mind, the following is the first installment in our survey of differing perspectives on the threats and opportunities created by AI hallucinations. 
  • After the Impact of the Change/United Healthcare Ransomware Attack, HHS Bolsters Healthcare Cybersecurity Initiatives
    The ransomware epidemic is starting to feel like one continuous incident report and a growing national security concern – not to mention the dormant “ghost in the machine” capabilities that have already been positioned in the U.S. internetwork (by nation-state and non-nation-state players alike) as part of a strategic plan for a larger act of… Read more: After the Impact of the Change/United Healthcare Ransomware Attack, HHS Bolsters Healthcare Cybersecurity Initiatives
  • The Water Sector Is Being Threatened.  That Should Worry Everyone
    In December 2023, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), National Security Agency (NSA), Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and the Israel National Cyber Directorate (INCD) issued an alert regarding the activities of Iranian cyber actors dubbed “CyberAv3ngers” believed to be tied to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).  The alert cited that this group… Read more: The Water Sector Is Being Threatened.  That Should Worry Everyone
  • What Can Your Organization Learn from the Use Cases of Large Language Models in Medicine and Healthcare?
    Other industry sectors should keep a close eye on the critical milestones and pitfalls of the biotech/healthcare space – with an eye toward what platform, product, service innovations, and architectures may have a potable value proposition within your industry. The Stanford Institute for Human-Centered AI (HAI) is doing great work fielding research in healthcare with quantifiable results that offer a window into AI as a general applied technology in this vast but shallow early implementation phase of “AI for the enterprise.”  Details here. 
  • Quantum Day (aka “Q-Day”) is a Gray Rhino Stridently Galloping Straight at Your Organization
    “Q-Day” is a scenario where “no more secrets” becomes a reality, as previously secure communications and data could be vulnerable to decryption by entities wielding quantum computational power (also known as “Quantum Supremacy”).  Find a breakdown, analysis, and future scenarios here.  
  • Spatial AI is the Future of Human-Computer Interaction and the Metaverse
    Regular readers of the OODA Loop know that we cover exponential technologies daily and we expect disproportionate disruption when these technologies start to converge.  In this post, we explore AI + an expanded working definition (with subcategories) of what is broadly considered “the metaverse” + blockchain technology as an example of the exponential tech stack starting to converge (a subtheme of the OODA Almanac 2024).  
  • After His Presidential Re-election Victory, Putin Escalates Drone, Cyber and Disinformation Offensives
    With Vladamir Putin’s “landslide” victory in the Russian Presidential election in the rearview mirror (the victory extends Putin’s autocratic rule through 2030, which will be his 18th year as president), we provide some situational awareness RE: Putin’s ongoing, global cyber and disinformation offensives – and the drone swarm attacks that are proving the 21st Century organizing principle of his barbaric land war in Ukraine, the first in mainland Europe since WWII.
  • Widespread European Farmer Protests, Some Violent, are Another Dispatch from The Ministry for the Future
    In this, the fifth installment in our “Dispatches from the Ministry for the Future” series, we take the time to do more of a deep dive into the speculative fiction/science fiction novel that inspired this eponymous series of posts – followed by details of the farmer protest that have broken out all over the EU in the last year or so.  In the  What Next? section of this post:  Utopian and dystopian OODA Loop scenarios based on the searing, completely plausible narrative of our potential global future that is so powerfully rendered in the pages of “The Ministry for the Future.” 
  • Government Agencies are in the Fight Against Chinese Human Targeting and Cyber Espionage. Will it be Enough?
    Every year, we make a point of returning to a few social psychology, organizational behavior, and human behavioral psychology factors, namely how your organization should integrate the threat of human targeting and social engineering into your overall company culture and cybersecurity strategy.  This post is an update from the frontlines – with recent offensive and defensive tactics from the Justice Department, the Department of the Treasury, the State Department, and a CISA/FBI/NSA joint advisory are summarized here, followed by a scenario analysis.  
  • The Technology of Ethereum Will revolutionize how businesses are run and enable more economic freedom for individuals
    This is a review of what I see of the technology in the Ethereum ecosystem and some of the use cases it addresses today. It is designed to help leaders and decision-makers conceptualize what the functionality of Ethereum means for other technologies and for business operations (I look forward to discussions on this in our… Read more: The Technology of Ethereum Will revolutionize how businesses are run and enable more economic freedom for individuals
  • A 4X Increase in Disinformation in Africa is Fundamentally Destabilizing
    A new report from the Africa Center for Strategic Studies found that “disinformation campaigns seeking to manipulate African information systems have surged nearly fourfold since 2022, triggering destabilizing and antidemocratic consequences.”  Find a summary and analysis of the report here. 
  • Are Chinese-Made Ship-to-Shore Cranes at U.S. Ports a Critical Infrastructure Vulnerability?
    The 2023 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA)  (made into law in December 2022) included some specific military-related cybersecurity provisions, including a required study of cybersecurity and national security threats posed by foreign-manufactured cranes at United States ports” to assess whether foreign manufactured cranes at United States ports pose cybersecurity or national security threats.” The study was completed late last year – and the response to the findings has sparked global controversy and debate.  Details here. 
  • The March 2024 OODA Network Monthly Meeting: The Global and Domestic Impacts of the Exponential Pace of Technological Change
    At the March 2024 OODA Network Member Meeting – which was held on Friday, March 15, 2024 –  Four categories were discussed as framing for the discussion:  The speed with which artificial intelligence changes are happening;  Geopolitical conflict and crisis issues;  Domestic issues that are at times being underreported; and the general march of technology at exponential speed.  
  • Undersea Communications Cables and the Seabed Continue to Evolve as Threat Vectors and Contested Arenas
    Back in March 2023, we provided an analysis of  “Undersea Telecommunications Cables and the Seabed as Geopolitical Contested Arenas” which, at the time, we framed relative to a great power competition with China:  “Along with Africa and the Arctic, add the growing tensions between the U.S. and China about undersea cable deployment and seabed warfare to your geopolitical tracking, risk awareness, and strategic impacts for your business or organization.” Enter the Houthis – who allegedly have opened an undersea-based front in the conflict in the Middle East.  Details here. 
  • Swarm Intelligence and Network Swarms: Future Scenarios
    The concept of network swarms, particularly in the context of modern conflict and security, represents a fascinating and somewhat disorientating evolution in the dynamics of warfare and strategic operations.  The implications of swarm intelligence also extend beyond  these immediate scenarios in technology and defense. They challenge our traditional notions of intelligence, control, and organization, suggesting that in certain contexts, decentralized and distributed approaches can outperform centralized and hierarchical ones.  Find our analysis here.
  • Wondering if we are living in a simulation? If we are it is probably based on NVIDIA
    We Are Living In A Simulation That Runs On NVIDIA Already a subscriber? Sign In. Subscribe to read this article and all other premium research and analysis. Subscribers receive:  Exclusive Content Access: Research and expert driven analysis to inform your decision-making.  Over ten thousand articles on disruptive technologies, cybersecurity, geo-political risk, and national security technology… Read more: Wondering if we are living in a simulation? If we are it is probably based on NVIDIA
  • The Interim Report of the U.S. National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnology
    The U.S. National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnology publicly released its first report in January of this year – with ideas and recommendations “they will be advancing throughout 2024…culminating in a comprehensive report to Congress in December 2024.”  Find a summary and analysis of the interim report here.  
  • For the Cybersecurity Community: A Call to Action for Memory-safe Strategies and “Better Diagnostics that Measure Cybersecurity Quality”
    In late February, “the National Cyber Director (ONCD) released a report calling on the technical community to proactively reduce the attack surface in cyberspace. ONCD makes the case that technology manufacturers can prevent entire classes of vulnerabilities from entering the digital ecosystem by adopting memory-safe programming languages. ONCD is also encouraging the research community to address the problem of software measurability to enable the development of better diagnostics that measure cybersecurity quality.”  Find the details of the ONCD report here. 
  • The Drone Swarm Architecture Will Transform U.S. Warfighting Capacity
    Lieutenant General (ret.) Clint Hinote, U.S. Air Force and Major General (ret.) Mick Ryan, Australian Army – Special Advisors to the Special Competitive Studies Project (SCSP) – have co-authored a paper on “Uncrewed systems—which are now undergoing a form of Cambrian Explosion in capability, quality, and quantity…these systems are disrupting how combatants are considering risk, cost, and authority on the modern battlefield.” Find their framing and insights here. 
  • Exponential Technology Stack Convergence: Generative AI-enabled Blockchain Networks
    Throughout 2024, we expect disproportionate disruption when the exponential tech stack starts to converge.   One of the most promising of these exponential technological intersections will be Generative AI-enabled Blockchain Networks – of which applications and use cases have started to emerge.
  • Hypersonic Vehicles are a Technological Tie that Binds U.S.-Sino Researchers
    A report from the Frontier Assessments Unit is a deep dive into hypersonic vehicle research with a very specific framing:  that of the collaborative efforts between U.S. universities and their research affiliations with universities and research organizations in China:  “These vehicles hold the promise of revolutionizing rapid response capabilities, reconnaissance, and even commercial air travel…the landscape of hypersonic vehicle research is not confined within national borders.”   The implications of this borderless hypersonic vehicle research abound, details here.  
  •  A Chip Alliance is Proposed by the U.S. as ASML Explores Foreign Expansion and New Market Rival Canon, Inc.
    Europe’s most valuable technology company, ASML Holdings, is responsible for the manufacturing of semiconductor machinery.  The chip-machinery maker is a shocking stovepipe in the future of the IT supply chain, ranking with the world’s dependence on Taiwanese chip maker TSMC as a troubling risk variable – two potential points of failure (with no redundancies in place for the West to replicate the production capacity of  ASMLor TSMC) – the implications of which are high impact.   Geopolitics and the machinations of the marketplace continue to grind away, however, with incentives, leverage, and outcomes gris for the mill.  Find some of the latest chess moves RE: ASML here.  
  • We Have a Privacy Executive Order!  Time to See It in Action
    In late February 2024, the Biden Administration issued its long-awaited Executive Order to protect the personal data of Americans from foreign threats by restricting access to Americans’ bulk data by “countries of concern,”  when such acquisition would “pose an unacceptable risk to the national security of the United States.”
  • A ChatGPT Use Case for the Board of Directors: Corporate Disclosure and Policy Assessments
    Researchers from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)  offer some foundational thinking on how ChatGPT can be applied to corporate disclosures and policies.  According to the authors, this “study provides a first look at the potential of ChatGPT to extract managerial expectations and corporate policies. We believe that our findings have important implications for… Read more: A ChatGPT Use Case for the Board of Directors: Corporate Disclosure and Policy Assessments
  • RAND Researchers Explore Scenarios for a U.S. Victory in a War with the PRC
    Policy researchers from the Rand Corp. ponder the question: “How can the United States prevail in a limited war with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) while avoiding catastrophic escalation?”  Find their analysis and  scenarios here.  
  • An Overview of the NIST Cybersecurity Framework 2.0
    The NIST Cybersecurity Framework (CSF) 2.0, an evolution of its predecessor, is a comprehensive guide designed to assist organizations across various sectors in managing and mitigating cybersecurity risks effectively. This framework, while not prescribing specific actions, offers a taxonomy of high-level cybersecurity outcomes, enabling organizations, regardless of their size, sector, or maturity, to better understand, assess, prioritize, and communicate their cybersecurity efforts.  This post is a summary of the NIST CSF 2.0. 
  • The February 2024 OODA Network Member Meeting Discussion of the Current Geopolitical Terrain
    After the annual OODA CEO Matt Devost and OODA Network Members Review the OODA Almanac 2024 – Reorientation  at the February 2024 OODA Network Member Meeting – which was held on Friday, February 16, 2024 –  the network ended the monthly meeting with a discussion of the current geopolitical “free for all” and potential geopolitical futures.  Find a summary of that conversation here. 
  • How To Properly Cut Your Cybersecurity Budget
    Cybersecurity is one of those areas where cost cutting must be done with forethought. Cut the wrong things and it can lead to catastrophic results including government fines, criminal penalties and loss of customer confidence. Cut the right things and key risks can still be mitigated and they can be mitigated more efficiently.
  • The Defense Intelligence Agency on the Iranian-backed Drone Power of Russia and the Houthis
    Two recently declassified Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) reports extensively detail the Iranian-backed drone capabilities fueling the reconfiguration of global warfare into a drone swarm architecture – fueling what John Robb has framed as the future:  asymmetric, non-nation-state kinetic capabilities organized into drone swarms enhancing the ability for warfighting capabilities “networked tribes” and “global guerrillas” usurping that of traditional military doctrine and the monopoly on the threat of violent conflict traditionally held exclusively by nation-states. 
  • By 2026, Online Content Generated by Non-humans Will Vastly Outnumber Human Generated Content
    As an OODAcon 2023 panelist noted:  We are fast approaching a “tipping point” – when non-human generated content will vastly outnumber the amount of human generated content. A general quantitative validation has also been floating around: “90% of Online Content will be AI-generated by 2026”. We took the time to validate this quant and flesh out one of the sub-themes from the OODA Almanac 2024 – – The Anti-content Movement: “In the deluge of content generated by AI, the human element becomes a coveted rarity, a beacon of authenticity in a sea of algorithmically crafted narratives.” 
  • Reorient Your Organization: Scenarios Exploring a Quantum Attack on Critical U.S. Power Grid Infrastructure
    The Hudson Institute report on “Risking Apocalypse? Quantum Computers and the US Power Grid” highlights the significant threat posed by potential quantum computer attacks on the US power grid. It emphasizes the vulnerability of the grid to such attacks, which could decrypt existing encryption systems and cause catastrophic outcomes. As we navigate the complexities of the quantum era, we used this scenario as a launching point for the formulation of additional scenarios for your strategic consideration, including recommendations and insights for your organization (garnered from the application of both the scenario planning and systems thinking methodologies). 
  • OODA CEO Matt Devost and OODA Network Members Review the OODA Almanac 2024 – Reorientation
    Every year, we also use one of our monthly meetings for a discussion of the annual OODA Almanac with the OODA Network.  This conversation took place at the February 2024 OODA Network Member Meeting – which was held on Friday 16, 2024.    
  • i-SOON Data Leak Is Interesting but Mostly Unsurprising
    The i-SOON leak tells us nothing new perhaps as much as solidify points that have long been suspected and acknowledged of Chinese cyber operations.  Beijing tasks out orders on areas of interest to a variety of collection means, much like any other government.  In this case, one company has been identified, and there are likely other companies doing similar work, as well. 
  • Two Emergent and Sophisticated Approaches to LLM Implementation in Cybersecurity
    Google Security Engineering and The Carnegie Mellon University Software Engineering Institute in collaboration with OpenAI have sorted through the hype – and done some serious thinking and formal research on developing “better approaches for evaluating LLM cybersecurity” and AI-powered patching: the future of automated vulnerability fixes. This is some great formative framing of the challenges ahead as we collectively sort out the implications of the convergence of generative AI and future cyber capabilities (offensive and defensive).
  • Two Chinese Supercomputers (with Mystery Hardware Components) Go Online
    Conspicuous, controversial and notorious is the Chinese unwillingness to participate in global benchmarking list of the world’s most powerful supercomputers.  So, the “top 500” list goes out – with the U.S. on top.  The lack of participation by the Chinese then fuels rumors that they in fact possess capabilities that transcend all the participants in the global benchmarking lists.  We take a comparative look at some supercomputer specs to see what the compute reality really is vis a vis Chinese supercomputing capabilities as reported by a few reputable outlets. While on the topics, we took a look at the Russians efforts and the latest on Telsa’s Dojo as well. 
  • Under Fire, CISA’s JCDC Continues Astride with 2024 Priorities
    We have been very vocal boosters of CISA,  the efforts of CISA leadership, and since its inception, the work of the Joint Cyber Defense Collaborative (JCDC). And we continue in our support of both organizations.  The Defenders have a tough mission.  In this post, however, we remain objective and sort out some of the recent constructive criticism directed at CISA and the CISA JCDC by Federal IT leaders.   It is an interesting, productive conversation these decisionmakers have opened up through their professional feedback.
  • The Future of the U.S. Defense Industrial Base: Challenges and Opportunities
    The Congressional Research Service (CRS) is best in class research and analysis, judged against both public or private sector standards.  In a recent report, the CRS broke down the vital questions U.S. policymakers need to be asking vis a vis the future of the U.S. Defense Industrial Base – questions which apply to all organizations strategic sensemaking as the U.S. Defense Industrial Base undergoes a transformation that overlaps with many vital industry sectors. 
  • Are Global Stressors and Bank Failures Considered Strategically Net Positive by Some Market Players?
    We take a look at the recently released Federal Reserve Board 2024 bank stress test scenarios, with an eye towards just how sensitive the stress tests are to disruptions and uncertainties created by exponential technologies – and how some disruptive markets see instability in the traditional banking system as a net positive for the strategic emergence of an alternative global currency fiat (and net positive for their alternative portfolio assets short term).
  • Microsoft and OpenAI Issue a Stark Report and a $10M Bounty from the State Department
    Competing cyber capabilities (on a spectrum from nation-state to non-state actors alike) and cyber-based conflict will continue to restructure, reformulate, and transform the very essence of what power, prestige, international governance, and geopolitical strategy are in the 21st century – and large language models are the new force multiplier.  Microsoft and OpenAI have quantified the breadth and scope of this new threat vector – including the major state sponsored actors.  Meanwhile, the State Department goes with an old school bounty to counter the ransomware threat. 
  • Global AI Developers Need to Set Some Standards – Now
    Too many times the world has been caught flat-footed by technological advances.  With generative AI there has been ample expectation of its capabilities for both good and bad not to be prepared for what is already materializing.
  • Rice and Fertilizer are the Linchpins of Global Food Insecurity
    Recent restrictions on rice exports by India prompt this analysis of the on the ground conditions of global food insecurity, returning to some of the themes we explored in The Future of Food (In)Security and Agriculture Cybersecurity: Grain Hoarding, Rice Shortages and the War in Ukraine.  In 2024, we are on the lookout for technological and geopolitical convergences.  Global rice supplies and fertilizer access in war torn countries are just such a convergence. 
  • What You Need to Know About the Convergence of Robot Process Automation (RPA) and AI
    According to the Robot Report, The International Federation of Robotics recently “noted that the stock of operational robots around the world attained a new record of about 3.9 million units in 2022. The average robot density, or number of robots per 10,000 human workers, rose to 151 and the trend of using artificial intelligence in robotics and automation keeps growing…”  In particular, the convergence of robot process automation (RPA) and AI holds great promise in the enterprise.  Details here. 
  • Will The AI Safety Institute – and the Consortium Model – Insure an AI-safe Future?
    Consistent with our recent analysis of government regulation (or overregulation?) of AI, and the introduction of the concept of the “decontrol” of AI, the recent launch of the AI Safety Institute (organized as a public/private consortium) begs the same questions:  although a public/private collaboration, is the AI Safety Institute an extension of an overall climate of over-regulation of AI in the U.S.? Or it is an architecture that enhances governmental decontrol? 
  • Contextualizing Advancements in Bioengineering to your Business Operations
    As noted in the first post in this series, it has become increasingly clear that the revolution in biological science will impact most every sector of the economy.
  • The Space Economy in 2024
    The near term opportunities and risks of the space economy and Space Force, innovation, and national security were discussed at length at OODAcon 2023. We return here to the two panels from the conference and a compilation of our space coverage as we head into a year in space ripe with innovation, critical missions, and breakthroughs in 2024. 
  • Nations Agree to Reign in Commercial Spyware- How Serious Are They?
    ecently, more than 35 nations have signed a new international agreement to collaborate on reigning in the “hacker for hire” commercial market, in which private interests sell tools and services to support offensive cyber activities.
  • Globalization Transformed: Where Should Your Organization “Nearshore” and/or “Friendshore”?
    Various perspectives – on Latin American nearshoring and Indo-Pacific “friendshoring” with allied nations in an effort to secure and shorten global supply chains – as well as the emergence of “China +1” –  four emergent manufacturing hubs – can be found here in this post.  
  • Decontrol AI to Accelerate Solutions
    In a previous post we asked “Is the US Government Over-Regulating Artificial Intelligence?” We followed it with some historical context and a summary of today’s government controls in “Regulations on Government Use of AI.” This post builds on those two to examine an example on how a decontrol mindset can help speed AI solutions into… Read more: Decontrol AI to Accelerate Solutions
  • What is the Defense Industrial Base Consortium?
    The Other Transaction Agreement (OTA) vehicle was also used recently by the Department of Defense (DoD) to award Advanced Technology International (ATI) “to serve as the consortium manager for the Defense Industrial Base Consortium (DIBC). This DIBC OTA will enable rapid research and allow access to commercial solutions for defense requirements and innovations from industry, academia, and non-traditional contractors.”  As a result, we set out to learn more about the DIBC for the OODA Loop community.  Details here. 
  • Bioengineering Beyond Health
    In previous posts in this series we reviewed foundational knowledge on bioengineering we recommend all business leaders possess and major topics that will impact the healthcare industry. In this post we go beyond healthcare to examine topics around application of biological sciences to other industries.
  • DoD launches the OTA-Funded Distributed Bioindustrial Manufacturing Investment Program: Seeks Industry Proposals
    The Department of Defense (DoD) launched the Distributed Bioindustrial Manufacturing Investment Program (DBMIP) Which seeks “to strengthen domestic supply chains and sustain America’s global prominence in biotechnology. The DBMIP will execute investments through the Defense Industrial Base Consortium (DIBC) Other Transaction Agreement (OTA), which helps lower barriers to allow DoD to work more expeditiously with small, non-traditional, and large businesses.”  Details here – including an opportunity for the private sector to submit proposals for DBMIP funding. 
  • Rise of the Robots: Breakthroughs in Humanoid Robotics and the Dawn of Embodied AI
    Is your head still spinning from all the AI news of late? It will all seem so quaint when the useful humanoid robots arrive.
  • What is the Space Development Agency’s Tracking Layer?
    The future “architecture of space” will be distributed across a broad vision, inspired by science fiction, of what space can and will be in the future.  Government agency-led contributions to this “architecture of space” will figure prominently – like the recent Space Development Agency’s (SDA) Other Transaction Authority (OTA) agreements – totalling $2.5 billion – awarding “three prototype agreements to build 54 satellites to establish the Tranche 2 (T2) Tracking Layer, which will proliferate missile warning/missile tracking (MW/MT) infrared sensors as well as fire control-quality infrared sensors for missile defense in support of the Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture (PWSA) – both crucial elements of SDA’s National Defense Space Architecture (NDSA). 
  • What Does CYBER COM 2.0 Look Like?
    Recent reporting indicates that U.S. Cyber Command (CYBERCOM) is in the middle of restructuring the organization and the forces that support it in order to best position the command to address the changing cyber threat landscape.  The strategy behind “CYBERCOM 2.0” is that the more than 10-year-old command was built on principles that are outdated for the needs… Read more: What Does CYBER COM 2.0 Look Like?
  • From Quantum Foundations to Universal Insights: Embracing First Principles Thinking for Better Understanding Of How Things Work
    If you believe in first principles thinking, you need to know some basic facts about the quantum world. If you believe in first principles thinking, you need to know some basic facts about the quantum world. Quantum effects can be really strange. So many things we know from experiments just seem totally irrational, illogical and… Read more: From Quantum Foundations to Universal Insights: Embracing First Principles Thinking for Better Understanding Of How Things Work
  • OODA Almanac 2024 – Reorientation
    The year 2024 will require a reorientation to new realities, largely driven by the acceleration of disruptive technologies grinding against the inertia of stale institutions that would rather we snack on the comfort food of the past than the buffet of the future.  In past Almanacs we’ve talked about the rapid acceleration of technology and… Read more: OODA Almanac 2024 – Reorientation
  • Regulations on Government Use of AI
    In a previous post in this series we raised a question: Is the US Government Over-Regulating AI? That post discussed the word “decontrol” as a concept whose time has come in discussion of AI use in the government. In a previous post in this series we raised a question: Is the US Government Over-Regulating AI?… Read more: Regulations on Government Use of AI
  • Bioengineering, Health and Business
    In our previous post in this series (see the OODA Special Report: Executive’s Guide To the Revolution in Biology) we reviewed some fundamentals in biological science and engineering we recommend all executives and investors be familiar with. In this post we dive into concepts centered around the impact of bioengineering on human health. In our… Read more: Bioengineering, Health and Business
  • Biotechnology in Warfare and Battle – and the Human Body as a Warfighting Domain
    RAND researchers in a recently released report explore biology as the platform on which future wars will be fought.  Plagues, Cyborgs, and Supersoldiers:  The Human Domain of War “examines a future in which biotechnology is used by both state and nonstate actors…future actors may use pathogens, brain-computer interfaces (BCIs), genomic enhancements, and wearable technology to supplement and strengthen warfighters.”   A failure of imagination this report is not. 
  • The January 2024 OODA Network Monthly Meeting: What is on Your Radar in 2024?
    The first OODA Network Member Meeting of 2024 was held on Friday January 19, 2024.  The meeting was organized around an initial prompt question:  “What should we be thinking about in 2024?”   The meeting aimed to gather input and discuss the big issues of 2024, including geopolitical futures and technological advancements. Network members were encouraged to share their thoughts on the major disruptors and what they believe should be on the radar for the 2024 OODA Loop research agenda and editorial calendar.  At the macro level, the meeting touched upon geopolitical issues, potential conflicts arising from technological convergence, and the exponential leaps in technology expected in the next five to eight years. 
  • Government Purchase of Commercial Available Information Further Undermines Public Trust
    “Trust us” is no longer an acceptable response from the very government entities sworn to protect the people of the country.  
  • Is the US Government Over-Regulating Artificial Intelligence?
    Maybe it is time to start thinking of ways to decontrol our AI. Here are some reasons why.
  • OODA Special Report: Executive’s Guide To The Revolution in Biology
    An update to our report on what executives need to know about the business impact of biological sciences.
  • Evolving AI Threats: What You Need to Know
    “When you invent the ship, you also invent the shipwreck; when you invent the plane, you also invent the plane crash” is a seering insight attributed to cultural theorist Paul Virilio  – and is oft quoted here at OODA Loop. We review here some of the new “inventions” that are part and parcel of the emergence of AI as a general application technology across any and all global industry sectors and societal systems.    
  • Where Is the Executive Order on Data Privacy?
    While it is promising to see that these areas are being addressed at the highest levels of government, there is still one glaring omission that has yet to be treated with the same level of seriousness by the Executive Office – data privacy.  The United States has various laws at both the state and federal levels that address different aspects of data privacy.  Healthcare’s HIPAA Privacy Rule and the financial sector’s Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act are two such examples.  Yet despite some sector specific legislation in place, the United States fails to have a comprehensive national law like Europe’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) – that protects individuals and their sensitive data and ensure that the organizations that collect, process, and store such data do it in a responsible and accountable manner.
  • Are “Trade Clusters” the Future of Geopolitics in 2024?
    Trade Clusters are yet another development in the way globalization transformed over the course of 2023. William Alan Reinsch, Senior Adviser and Scholl Chair in International Business, at the The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) provides a working definition and framed some the core characteristics of what he calls “trade clusters”. 
  • Business Models, Generating Value and the Double Exponential Future of Artificial Intelligence in 2024
    The future of AI was a broad theme at OODAcon 2023 which was discussed not only at a session dedicated to the topic, but in the context of the impact of AI on cybersecurity and autonomous systems.  Find those discussions here.  One of the tactical insights from OODAcon 2023 was related to generative AI.  The advice for organizations and individuals is to just get started using large language model platforms and exploring business model platforms and value creation use cases.  You will find examples here to jumpstart those efforts.  
  • AI Breakthroughs and Promising Partnerships: What You Need to Know
    In this post, we have separated the wheat from the chaff in the AI ecosystem, surfacing and highlighting some of the most prescient AI/ML breakthroughs and promising public/private partnerships.  Companies and organizations featured here include Google DeepMind, The Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence (AI2), The National Science Foundation (NSF), The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), Strider Technologies, and Scale AI. 
  • Digital Self-Sovereignty: Securing and Developing a National Strategy for Web3
    Last year, OODA CTO Bob Gourley spoke with MITRE Futurist Charles Clancy on our Quantum Enabled Future.  During that conversation, Clancy also shared some research he and and his team on Web3 and the Future of the Internet, which dovetailed nice into our Digital Self-sovereignty research efforts. Following is another valuable contribution from the MITRE reseach team.
  • Decoding DoD’s Pacific Missions: Opportunities for Defense Contractors
    If you could not make our webinar featuring OODA network expert Chris Ward you can catch a replay at this link: If you could not make our webinar featuring OODA network expert Chris Ward you can catch a replay at the link provided here.  Already a subscriber? Sign In. Subscribe to read this article and… Read more: Decoding DoD’s Pacific Missions: Opportunities for Defense Contractors
  • The Inaugural U.S. National Defense Industrial Strategy
    The first-ever National Defense Industrial Strategy (NDIS) was released last week by The United States Department of Defense (DoD).  THE NDIS “offers a strategic vision to coordinate and prioritize actions to build a modernized defense industrial ecosystem.”  Details here.
  • As Two Billion People go to the Polls in 2024, Foundational LLMs and Misinformation are “The Perfect Storm”
    Early warning systems are flashing red – indicating a growing “perfect storm” of all the unintended consequequences we have experienced to date based on:an unregulated tech sector coupled with cyberwarfare tactics and kompromat innovation   This time out, it will all play out with exponential speed, scale and volume over the course of 2024. 
  • Scams Against Americans are Skyrocketing. The US Tech Sector and Government can Turn the Tide
    A recent Gallup poll combined with a new Federal Trade Commission (FTC) estimate of fraud losses show that criminals are stealing 10s or 100s of billion dollars from 21 million Americans each year.
  • Does the U.S. Have a “Talent Superpower Strategy”?
    China has articulated a “Talent Superpower Strategy.” But does the U.S. have an equivalent workforce and talent strategy for educating, training, attracting and retaining the talent required for exponential technology innovation to insure American Competitiveness?   A recent Center for a New American Security (CNAS) report explores this challenge.
  • Before OpenAI’s ChatGPT, There was Google DeepMind’s Alphafold
    While the release of ChatGPT and enterprise-level deployment of Large Language Models have been impactful, all organizations should also be digging deeper into recent AI and deep learning history and ask the question:  “How is Deepmind’s Alphafold representative of the future architectures, ecosystems, platforms and value creation opportunities in our industry sector and subsectors?”  
  • The Future of AI-based Gene Sequencing
    An analysis of the latest Alphafold breakthrough  – Enformer, a neural network architecture that accurately predicts gene expression from DNA sequences – and the What’s Next? of the future of AI and Genomics.
  • Regaining Trust: Improving Science and Public Health Policy Communications
    We are in the midst of a Covid, RSV, and flu virus surge that both media and governmental outlets have not and are no doing any public messaging about (in some regions, the current surge matches the metrics of the first Omnicron surge in 2021).  In this post, we take a look at various perspespectives on science and public health policy communication as one of the fundamental failings of both the recent pandemic experience and the ongoing climate crisis.
  • It’s 2024. Time to Have Attribution Standards in Cyberspace
    The fact that attribution -especially against states – is even done with any confidence is surprising given that those that attributing both herald the sophistication associated with state actors while at the same time citing their carelessness as one of the reasons that they were able to be identified in the first place. Read more here.
  • Recent Developments in and the Future of the Bioeconomy in 2024
    We have tracked vital recent developments in health security, bioengineering, synthetic biology, biotechnology, and medical technology  – which are compiled here. The future of the U.S. Bioeconomy is crucial to the future of strategic competitive advantage globally – all of which was discussed in a future-forward fashion at OODAcon 2023.
  • Updates and Recommendations from the CISA Cybersecurity Advisory Committee
    Established in June 2021, the CISA Cybersecurity Advisory Committee (CSAC) is comprised of experts on cybersecurity, technology, risk management, privacy, and resilience, who advise the Director on policies and programs related to CISA’s mission.  This post leads with summaries from the most recent CISA CSAC Quarterly Meetings, followed by an archive from all previous CSAC Quarterly meeting summaries. 
  • What the Board Needs to Know About Exponential Disruption, Cybersecurity, Risk Management and Strategy
    Over the course of 2023, we posted a series of post on the issues and risks which Boards of Directors should consider related to emerging technology and cybersecurity. Global polycrises, exponential technological disruption, and unprecedented historical uncertainty aside:  From OpenAI to FTX, the market and the media narrative have proven that fiduciary responsibility and corporate governance still matter.  Find the 2023 series of posts here.  We plan to continue this series in 2024.  
  • The DHS Cyber Safety Review Board’s Inaugural Reports
    Since its inception in early 2022,  the Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS), Cyber Safety Review Board (CSRB) has generated some interesting outputs, specifically:  reports on the Lapsus Hacking Group and the ongoing challenges created by the Log4j Vulnerability.  Find the details here. 
  • The “Tallinn Mechanism” is Designed to Enhance Civilian Cyber Assistance to Ukraine
    As announced by the State Department at the end of 2023:  “As a result of Russia’s unprovoked war of aggression against Ukraine, the Tallinn Mechanism, hereafter referred to as “the Mechanism,” aims to coordinate and facilitate civilian cyber capacity building to help Ukraine uphold its fundamental right to self-defense in cyberspace and address longer-term cyber… Read more: The “Tallinn Mechanism” is Designed to Enhance Civilian Cyber Assistance to Ukraine
  • The December 2023 OODA Network Member Meeting: What Every American Should Know about China… and Doesn’t
    The final OODA Network Member Meeting of 2023 was held on Friday December 15, 2023. The OODA Network was joined at the meeting by Mike Studeman(Rear Admiral, USN ret) to help the OODA Network members think through developments with China. China is a large and complicated country which makes for a large and complex domain with multiple dimensions in need of comprehension. Mike is known for his ability to take in both the big picture of China and contextualize it for operational decision-makers.