China has articulated a “Talent Superpower Strategy.” But does the U.S.have an equivalent workforce and talent strategy for educating, training, attracting and retaining the talent required for exponential technology innovation to insure American Competitiveness? A recent Center for a New American Security (CNAS) report explores this challenge – and how “the United States can better access the STEM talent required to ensure U.S. competitiveness in critical technology areas and meet evolving workforce demands.”
CNAS Research Associate (with the Technology and National Security Program) Sam Howell lays the core issues out, including recommendation which build “on CNAS Technology Policy Lab discussions about creating a more inclusive labor market in the technology sector.”
Technology Competition: A Battle for Brains
Introduction
Emerging technologies—including artificial intelligence (AI), quantum information science and technology (QIST), and biotechnology—will transform people’s lives and work worldwide. Existing studies consider how technological advances could reshape the workplace, including substituting labor with machines, moving labor into complementary tasks, and enabling new ways to access labor.1
This paper examines a lesser studied but equally important aspect of the intersection between technology and work: Does the United States have the science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) talent to win the global competition to build, scale, and commercialize emerging technologies? And are current methods of developing and accessing STEM talent sufficient to meet workforce demands?
The possible strategic advantages of emerging technologies are numerous and significant. They promise to deliver lucrative breakthroughs in various industries, from medicine and agriculture to automotive and clean energy. At the same time, countries could leverage emerging technologies to build new weapons systems, bolster intelligence and surveillance tools, or crack an adversary’s encryption methods. Given their tremendous economic and national security potential, emerging technologies have become central to U.S.-China competition. The country that leads in the development and implementation of emerging technologies will possess a set of capabilities that can overwhelm unprepared adversaries. The global technology leader will also gain the upper hand in establishing market dominance and setting technology standards. Access to STEM talent is one key factor determining which country prevails in the technology battle.
The STEM workforce—defined here as individuals from all education levels working in science and engineering occupations—is integral to a country’s innovation potential and technology competitiveness.2 A robust and skilled pipeline of STEM talent is a crucial component of continued technological progress. It also plays a key role in harnessing emerging technologies’ positive potential while mitigating risks.
This paper evaluates the state of U.S. STEM education and the demand for and availability of STEM talent in three critical technology areas: QIST, semiconductors, and critical minerals. Though U.S. education policy and reform are not the focus of this paper, a broad assessment of the quality and accessibility of STEM education sheds light on U.S. preparedness to build and sustain a pipeline of future STEM talent. An evaluation of the demand for and availability of STEM talent in specific critical technology areas helps clarify the health of the STEM workforce today. The QIST, semiconductor, and critical mineral industries were selected as case studies because they are significant to U.S. national security and encompass a broad range of STEM positions requiring various levels of prior training and education—from no degree requirements to PhD-level expertise.3 They can thus illuminate the breadth and gravity of U.S. STEM talent challenges.
“Access to STEM talent is one key factor determining which country prevails in the technology battle.”
What Next?
Howell and the CNAS Technology Policy Lab team continued:
“The paper finds that the United States has concerning gaps in its STEM talent pool.
Further, a comparison of U.S. and Chinese human capital opportunities and constraints reveals that heightened global competition for STEM talent threatens to undermine the positive impact of the United States’ historic human capital advantages, including its large population size, diversity, and research openness.
Absent intervention, the United States risks falling behind China and other competitors in the quest to train, recruit, and retain STEM talent.
The STEM talent gaps and opportunities brought to light here are not revolutionary. The private sector, academia, and government have already initiated several promising efforts to cultivate a more robust and skilled U.S. STEM workforce. The United States can remedy its STEM workforce pitfalls and ensure its technology competitiveness by developing assessment frameworks for grassroots programs and implementing processes to replicate and scale the successful ones. It is not too late for the United States to refine its STEM preeminence, but the onus is on key stakeholders to cultivate a STEM-capable workforce.”
Recommendations
Recruit independent external research teams to study the effectiveness of recent workforce development programs. Understanding which workforce development initiatives work and why is critical to determine which programs can be replicated and scaled.
Partner with private companies to develop industry-specific postsecondary education programs and create a pipeline of candidates ready to fill critical talent gaps. University–private sector collaboration like Purdue University’s partnership with SkyWater Technology could be expanded to other technology areas.
Share resources, best practices, and expertise with local community colleges, technical schools, and high schools to increase access to opportunity. Universities with robust microelectronics programs could, for example, provide hands-on clean-room experience to community college students who typically lack such access due to prohibitive costs. (118) Universities could also work with community colleges, technical schools, and high schools to develop new, more widely accessible learning tools.
Partner with local organizations to expand learning opportunities for youth and primary school students. Companies could provide no-cost educational opportunities—like science and technology festivals, STEM-related museums, summer camps, or STEM career days at local YMCAs or sports clubs—to foster hands-on learning and connect underserved and rural communities to STEM careers.(120)
Augment and support innovative industry-specific university programs. Industry partners can take several steps to enhance the attractiveness of programs like Purdue’s Semiconductor Degrees and Credentials Program and maximize the impact of universities’ workforce investments.
Continue to build, fund, and expand reskilling initiatives, but supplement reskilling efforts with upskilling initiatives tailored to individuals underrepresented in STEM fields. Individuals without college degrees comprise a sizeable untapped talent pool in the United States, and technology industries are uniquely positioned to offer them stable, high-wage jobs.(121) More than 60 percent of jobs in a semiconductor fab do not require a college degree. (122) To fill critical talent gaps, U.S. technology companies could design and implement upskilling initiatives to attract and uplift this community.
Partner with state and local governments to expand opportunities for individuals in rural areas. Projected growth in the STEM field is expected to disproportionately benefit workers residing in metropolitan areas in coastal states, who typically hold advanced degrees. (123)
Create a digital talent matching platform for each critical technology area to connect job seekers to potential employers. The Department of Labor should create and maintain online talent matching platforms for each critical technology area on the Critical and Emerging Technologies List. (125) The Tasmanian Government’s Rapid Response Skills Matching Service, which helped businesses adversely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic fill critical vacancies, could serve as a model for this effort. (126)
Promote the value of vocational training programs, technical education, and nontraditional skill sets. Various national surveys indicate that U.S. adults value a college education and view a university degree as the key enabler of a successful future. (127) Government institutions can play a role in reducing the stigma associated with nontraditional skill sets, experiences, and educational pathways and help employers understand how diverse backgrounds can benefit their organizations.
For the complete CNAS report, go to: Technology Competition: A Battle for Brains
Further OODA Loop Resources
The Inevitable Acceleration of Reshoring and its Challenges: The momentum towards reshoring, nearshoring, and friendshoring signals a global shift towards regional self-reliance. Each region will emphasize local manufacturing, food production, energy generation, defense, and automation. Reshoring is a complex process, with numerous examples of failures stemming from underestimating intricacies. Comprehensive analyses encompassing various facets, from engineering to finance, are essential for successful reshoring endeavors. See: Opportunities for Advantage
Economic Weakness in China: China’s economy faces dim prospects exacerbated by disasters, COVID-19, and geopolitical tensions. Amid limited financial transparency, some indicators suggest China’s economic growth is severely stunted, impacting global economic stability. See: China Threat Brief
Networked Extremism: The digital era enables extremists worldwide to collaborate, share strategies, and self-radicalize. Meanwhile, advanced technologies empower criminals, making corruption and crime interwoven challenges for global societies. See: Converging Insurgency, Crime and Corruption
Food Security and Inflation: Food security is emerging as a major geopolitical concern, with droughts and geopolitical tensions exacerbating the issue. Inflation, directly linked to food security, is spurring political unrest in several countries. See: Food Security
Demographic Time Bomb: Industrialized nations face demographic challenges, with a growing elderly population outnumbering the working-age demographic. Countries like Japan and China are at the forefront, feeling the economic and social ramifications of an aging society. See: Global Risks and Geopolitical Sensemaking
Technology Convergence and Market Disruption: Rapid advancements in technology are changing market dynamics and user expectations. See: Disruptive and Exponential Technologies.
The New Tech Trinity: Artificial Intelligence, BioTech, Quantum Tech: Will make monumental shifts in the world. This new Tech Trinity will redefine our economy, both threaten and fortify our national security, and revolutionize our intelligence community. None of us are ready for this. This convergence requires a deepened commitment to foresight and preparation and planning on a level that is not occurring anywhere. The New Tech Trinity.
The Revolution in Biology: This post provides an overview of key thrusts of the transformation underway in biology and offers seven topics business leaders should consider when updating business strategy to optimize opportunity because of these changes. For more see: The Executive’s Guide To The Revolution in Biology
Quantum Computing and Quantum Sensemaking: Quantum Computing, Quantum Security and Quantum Sensing insights to drive your decision-making process. Quantum Computing and Quantum Security
AI Discipline Interdependence: There are concerns about uncontrolled AI growth, with many experts calling for robust AI governance. Both positive and negative impacts of AI need assessment. See: Using AI for Competitive Advantage in Business.
Benefits of Automation and New Technology: Automation, AI, robotics, and Robotic Process Automation are improving business efficiency. New sensors, especially quantum ones, are revolutionizing sectors like healthcare and national security. Advanced WiFi, cellular, and space-based communication technologies are enhancing distributed work capabilities. See: Advanced Automation and New Technologies
Emerging NLP Approaches: While Big Data remains vital, there’s a growing need for efficient small data analysis, especially with potential chip shortages. Cost reductions in training AI models offer promising prospects for business disruptions. Breakthroughs in unsupervised learning could be especially transformative. See: What Leaders Should Know About NLP
Rise of the Metaverse: The Metaverse, an immersive digital universe, is expected to reshape internet interactions, education, social networking, and entertainment. See Future of the Metaverse.
Bitcoin’s Momentum: Bitcoin seems unstoppable due to solid mathematical foundations and widespread societal acceptance. Other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum also gain prominence. The Metaverse’s rise is closely tied to Ethereum’s universal trust layer. See: Guide to Crypto Revolution
Materials Science Revolution: Room-temperature ambient pressure superconductors represent a significant innovation. Sustainability gets a boost with reprocessable materials. Energy storage sees innovations in solid-state batteries and advanced supercapacitors. Smart textiles pave the way for health-monitoring and self-healing fabrics. 3D printing materials promise disruptions in various sectors. Perovskites offer versatile applications, from solar power to quantum computing. See: Materials Science
