We track the rapidly changing world of technology with a focus on what leaders need to know to improve decision-making. Gain insights into the future of tech in a way that enables optimized action.
The rapidly advancing pace of technology is reflected in the dramatically changing capabilities available in the marketplace today. This is changing the competitive landscape, changing the potential capabilities of your internal architecture, and changing the expectations of your potential clients/customers. In this age of dramatic advancements all should ensure appropriate measures are being put in place to understanding these potential market disruptions and changes to the competitive landscape. The best way to model out potential future disruptions is to examine drivers of tech, which should include assessments of future user/customer demands.
Although still early in the S-Curve, the growing capabilities of automation, including those provided by Artificial Intelligence, Robotics and Robotic Process Automation, are providing positive business benefits and shifting how organizations operate. These efficiencies are needed now more than ever and this will likely accelerate their growth.
New sensors, including new sensors leveraging quantum effects, are changing healthcare and the national security sector and will soon become more widespread and impact wider swaths of the economy.
The benefits of advanced WiFi and Cellular communications and space based communications will improve the ability of organizations to disperse and further support distributed workforces. WiFI and Cellular advancements in particular are also enabling direct device to device communications in ways that will help optimize deployed robotics and advanced manufacturing.
The applications and compute foundation which has enabled knowledge workers to work from anywhere is now an important component of the nation’s infrastructure with impacts discussed further below.
This page captures some of our most impactful research and reporting on disruptive and exponential technologies. For additional context also see latest OODA research reports on Cybersecurity Tech, Artificial Intelligence, Space Technologies, Quantum Technologies, Global Supply Chain, Federal Tech Needs.
OODA principles and analysts have years of real world practitioner experience in fielding AI capabilities including the foundational infrastructure required for successful AI. We capture lessons learned and best practices in our C-Suite guide to AI for competitive advantage. Explore Using AI for Competitive Advantage
Robotics and Automation
Automation, as a subject for OODA Loop research and analysis, cuts a broad swath across many industry verticals. As we attempt to further scope our coverage, specific areas of interest have emerged that we thought would be of interest to the OODA Loop membership: Security Automation; Automation and the Workforce; Automation – or Augmentation – of the workforce; Autonomous Vehicles as Automation; Automation of AI/Machine Learning Training Models; Automation Case Studies; and Industry Standardization. Please reach out to us if there are any industry sectors, government agencies, robotics sub-disciplines, or robotics subsectors you would like us to explore in our research and analysis. We now turn to a recent WSJ article on a significant increase in robot sales in 2021, which continues in earnest in 2022.
Quantum Computing and Quantum Security
This page serves as a dynamic resource for OODA Network members looking for Quantum Computing, Quantum Security and Quantum Sensing insights to drive their decision-making process.
OODA Loop began reporting on Bitcoin just two years after Bitcoin’s Genesis block was mined with a summary of a Wired Magazine article discussing a new (at the time) type of malware that took over computers to mine Bitcoin. At the time, the price of Bitcoin had been rocketing to new highs and was just passing $9.50, on the way to $15.00 before crashing back down to end the year at $3.00 per coin. Since then millions of people and many businesses and even governments have recognized the powerful intrinsic value of a widely accepted, mathematically provable way to provide a distributed ledger that proves no coin can be spent twice. This method of mitigating the double spend problem, coupled with an approach that provides transparency and confirmation of transactions, kicked off a revolution that has generated a $1.6T market cap worth of cryptocurrencies. All indications are that this revolution has just begun. Flowing from the initial features of Bitcoin, a new blockchain and an ability to program a distributed ledger to enable smart contracts was created in Ethereum, kicking off another new wave of innovation. Our tracking of these developments focuses on the insights needed by operational decision-makers regardless of business sector of government, since these trends will be impacting all of us eventually.
Bitcoin is the most famous crypto currency, with good reason. It was the first to leverage the new concept of a blockchain to enable a distributed, but trusted ledger, which for the first time in history allowed a cryptocurrency where double spending was impossible. Since its founding on 3 January 2009 the system has worked and proven it can scale with extreme accuracy. But what might this new store of value and distributed means of safe and secure transactions mean for your business? The models listed here can fuel your decision-making in that domain.
During MicroStrategy World, Michael Saylor lead a focused discussion on the mega trends of finance he believes make the transition to Bitcoin as a global store of value inevitable. One of the most informative sessions was a discussion with a leading Bitcoin expert, Ross Stevens. Ross is CEO and founder of the New York Digital Investment Group (NYDIG), which enables institutional clients like Microstrategy to smartly buy and hold Bitcoin. NYDIG expects to hold $25B in Bitcoin for institutional clients by year end. So Ross speaks with authority and experience.
In the early 1990’s SciFi fans were introduced to a concept called the Metaverse in Neal Stephenson’s book SnowCrash. In the book this described a future virtual reality beyond the universe that was populated by user-controlled avatars as well as AI and bots.
Now decades later the age of the Metaverse is upon us. This post captures insights into this new world in ways meant to help leaders understand what is most relevant to your strategic planning. We provide an operational definition of the Metaverse, a description of the current market of metaverse players, and a list of recommendations for how this information should inform your business strategy. For more see: What To Know And Do About The Coming Metaverse
National Security and Technology
Russians and Chinese using human targeting – amongst other tools- to achieve security advantage in key emerging technologies by 2030
In late October, The National Counterintelligence and Security Center (NCSC) issued a report warning of China’s goal to achieve a technological advantage over the U.S. in certain key emerging technologies. Beijing’s long-term goal is a strategic advantage over the U.S. and its security interests by 2030 in areas such as biotechnology, genomic technology, artificial intelligence, and semiconductors. Russia is making strides in this direction as well, but is constrained by resources and has not made the level of commitment as the Chinese. Human targeting is highlighted as a tool used prolifically by the Chinese.
This panel of experts at OODAcon lead a thoughtful discussion on industrial policy that resulted in insights that can inform broad action in improving American innovation while protecting it for the use of open societies. Topics discussed will also be informative to any technology company seeking to do business with the US government.
What The Business Strategist Should Know About Congress’s Latest Report On Future Threats and Defense
The House Armed Services Committee (HASC) chartered a special task force to assess what the nation should know about the dynamic national security environment and produce a report to guide future action. The report was just issued. It evaluates strategic priorities of the US DoD to seek better matches of national resources to next-generation threats and sets goals for the entire national security community to achieve to ensure success in the coming decades.
The report was not meant to inform action in corporate America, but there are some considerations that may be of critical importance to strategic planning. This report provides our cut on what this report means for business strategists and suggestions on what actions to consider because of the shifting national security environment discussed in this report.
Cybersecurity and Technology
Enterprise technologists use the term “Zero Trust” to describe an evolving set of cybersecurity approaches that move defenses from static attempts to block adversaries to more comprehensive measures that improve enterprise performance while improving security. When the approaches of Zero Trust are applied to an enterprise infrastructure and workflows, the cost of security can be better managed and the delivery of functionality to end users increased. Security resources are matched to risk. Functionality, security and productivity all go up. Also see: Zero Trust Will Yield Zero Results Without A Risk Analysis
Junaid Islam has 30 years of experience in secure communications. His protocols, algorithms and architectures have been incorporated into a broad range of commercial and national security systems. In the 90s he developed the first implementation of Multi-Level Precedence and Preemption (MLPP) for US Department of Defense C2 applications. He developed the first working Mobile IPv6 client to enable fast hand-off as well as IPv6 address scrambling for high side networks for the DoD’s Netcentric Warfare program. He developed the first network-based Zero Trust Architecture using Software Defined Perimeter (SDP) which was adopted by NIST for their Zero Trust specification 800-207. In this video Junaid highlights some of the most important use cases for 5G and also discusses what CEOs, business leaders and government experts should know about the security and functionality of 5G. For more see: The Executive’s Guide to 5G: Here is what you need to know for your strategic planning. Also see: The 5G Supply Chain Blind Spot
The rapid pace of innovation in space is producing real capabilities which can be leveraged for businesses in every sector of the economy. There is a growing excitement over the many developments in the space industry, giving rise to many questions about how these developments will impact markets overall. This guide is meant to assist strategic planners in assessing developments in the space sector. For more see: The Executive’s Guide To Commercial Use of Space
The last decade has seen an incredible increase in the commercial use of space. Businesses and individual consumers now leverage space solutions that are so integrated into our systems that they seem invisible. Some of these services include: Communications, including very high-speed low latency communications to distant and mobile users. Learn more at: OODA Research Report: What Business Needs To Know About Security In Space Also see: Is Space Critical Infrastructure, and the special report on Cyber Threats to Project Artemis, and Mitigating Threats To Commercial Space Satellites
Biology and Bio-Science
This post provides an overview of key thrusts of the transformation underway in biology and offers seven topics business leaders should consider when updating business strategy to optimize opportunity because of these changes. For more see: The Executive’s Guide To The Revolution in Biology
Energy and Power
This post provides a high level overview of nuclear energy issues we recommend as part of the baseline fluency of executives across all industries. It includes an overview of issues holding nuclear power back, big innovations being brought to market and recommendations that can help inform strategic planning. See: What you need to know about nuclear energy.
Are you making the most of your data holdings? If you want to leverage your data to the better of your business you need to treat it like a weapon and use it to gain advantage over others. This is not just about your technical architecture, this is about your attitude and the approach you take to being proactive. For our best practices on how to do so see the OODA Guide to Using Your Data As A Weapon.
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The year 2023 felt incredibly disruptive and my annual reading list probably reflects that fact as I sought out books that focused not only on managing risk and chaos, but recognizing and fostering disruptive technology opportunties. Five years ago, I recommended Kevin Roberts’ excellent book “64 Shots” which talked about surviving in a VUCA…
Even with this $4.3B Binance settlement announced weeks after FTX’s Bankman Fried was convicted in early November (and awaits his March 2024 sentencing hearing), we remain bullish on the “bottom up” global crypto adoption trends and the underlying blockchain technology (which we addressed at OODAcon 2023 last month). Stay tuned for more end of year OODA Loop Original Analysis of both themes. For now, find the details here of the Binance train wreck.
Fast on the heels of Lisa Costa (Chief Technology and Innovation Officer of the US Space Force) taking the time to joining us at OODAcon 2023, for a discussion of The New Space Rush, following are some space operations and innovation initiatives of which Space Force is taking a lead.
A quick survey of academic and commercial developments in the industry sector – healthcare- that remains at the tip of the spear in the hybrid development of applied technologies in AI and Digital Twins.
Last week Matt Devost introduced a project he had conceptualized over two decades ago that had recently been made possible due to advances in neural search and natural language processing like the new Large Language Models so prevalent today. Look what it is doing now!
Two “straight no chaser”, best-in-class explorations of how best to implement LLMs within your organization.
tldr; There is a large language model trained on me. It is increasingly capable of responding to questions on cybersecurity, international security, counterterrorism, technology, and entrepreneurship. You can access it here: ALTzero Project – MattGPT Setting the Stage Two decades ago I realized that in the future technology might enable me to build an…
Will Roper is the former Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition, Technology, & Logistics. He is currently on the advisory committee for the Defense Innovation Board and, since he founded the company in 2022, is the CEO of Istari, Inc. To coin a phrase, Roper is part of the “AFWERX Mafia” that has branched out into the NatSec innovation ecosystem to found companies – thinking really differently about classic procurement and acquisition challenges – and the tough tech and deep tech opportunities ahead. Istari, Inc. brands the “metaverse” and “digital twins” as another subcategory – which the company calls “digital engineering.” The evolution of Roper’s experience and thinking is provided here, including his positioning of Formula One racing as the best in class business model generation and value proposition design which the Pentagon should strongly consider as a D0D-wide model for the future.
Major global, multinational announcements and events related to AI governance and safety took place last week. We provide a brief overview here. In an effort to get off the beaten path, however, and move away from these recent nation-state based AI governance efforts, two recent reports are framing some really interesting isues: How Might AI Affect the Rise and Fall of Nations? and “Governing AI at the Local Level for Global Benefit: A Response to the On-Going Calls for the Establishment of a Global AI Agency.”
The future is now. The Bioeconomy in 2023 is showing clear signs of opportunities for advantage created by the exponential disruption of the industrial base (including that of defense), coupled with exponential biotechnology innovation to build the bioeconomy of the future. The State of the Bioeconomy in 2023 includes: Exponential Organizational Ecosystems at Speed and Scale; Blockchain Technologies; Artificial Intelligence in Biotechnology, Genomics, Healthcare and Medical Tech; Biomanufacturing in Cislunar Space; and Health Security and Cybersecurity Challenges
The Origins Story and the Future Now of Generative AI – The fast moving impacts and exponential capabilities of generative artificial intelligence over the course of just one year.
Over the course of 2022 and 2023, The OODA Loop Blockchain Series has explored blockchain disruption in the market and new opportunities created by blockchain technologies in both the public and private sectors. Innovative blockchain technology efforts (by industry sector) – with a focus on how the blockchain enables new business models, opportunities for innovative value proposition design, and decentralized governance – are listed here. Industry sectors include: The Financial Sector and Monetary System; The Technology Sector (Semiconductor Subsector); The Automotive Sector and the Future of Mobility; and The Bioeconomy, Biotechnology, and Healthcare.
The upcoming OODAcon 2023 panel – “The Space Edge – Defining New Opportunities, Economies, and Risks” – will dig deep into the emerging opportunities, economies, and risks associated with the rapid development of space-based technologies, resource acquisition, and shift from the public to private sector. Following is a compilation of OODA Loop original analysis and resources on the revolution evolution of the Commercial Space industry sector.
We are entering into the Era of Code: Organizations and individuals that prioritize understanding how the Code Era impacts them will develop increasing advantage in the future. At OODAcon 2023, we will be taking a closer look at Generative AI innovation and the impact it is having on business, society, and international politics. IQT and the Special Competitive Studies Project (SCSP) recently weighed in on this Generative AI “spark” of innovation that will “enhance all elements of our innovation power” – and the potential cybersecurity conflagarations that may also be lit by that same spark. Details here.
Charles Clancy, Chief Futurist at MITRE, and his co-authors of a recent report – “Democratizing Technology: Web3 and the Future of the Internet” – provide the best framing of a “robust and decentralized, democratized alternative to the existing technology stack” and “the establishment and advancement of alternative technological paradigms to protect the public interest by making authoritarian misuse difficult or impossible.”
The Future of Space has been one of the most consistent and longest running OODA Loop research themes, including the two prominent panels at the upcoming OODAcon 2023: The Space Edge – Defining New Opportunities, Economies, and Risks; and The New Space Rush: The Final Frontier for the Economy and National Security. In the run up to these panels at OODAcon next week, following is a compilation of the space exploration milestones featured here at OODA Loop in 2023.
The convergence of Artificial Intelligence, Quantum Tech, and Bio Tech will make monumental shifts in the world. This new Tech Trinity will redefine our economy, both threaten and fortify our national security, and revolutionize our intelligence community. None of us are ready for this. But we can be. Read on.
To counterbalance the current obsession with the ongoing FTX/Sam Bankman-Fried trial – and its impact on the future of trust in the cryptocurrency marketplace – we finally tracked down the baseline quantative metrics which illuminate a string we have been trying to pull all year: the current perception of the scale of fraud in the cryptocurrency and blockchain technologies ecosystem – along with the perception (and supporting narratives) that crypto is intrinsically fraudulent – does not match the real numbers relative to the roughly $3.2 trillion in annual illegal activity in the traditional fiat monetary system. Details here.
This post provides information of us to any seeking to understand the strengths and weaknesses of existing AI systems that enable image generation.
AI use cases are starting to emerge (that transcend the “AI for Enterprise” marketplace) and illuminate the promise of artificial intelligence to solve tough societal problems. The California Policy Lab and the University of Chicago Poverty Lab “have used County data to predict homelessness among single adults receiving mainstream County services.” This AI-based computer model predicts who will become homeless in L.A. How can your organization leverage these insights into your AI strategy? This post is designed to highlight the “lessons learned” from the systems thinking of an applied AI technology solution to the broken system that is the national homelessness crisis.
Our annual OODAcon brings together the hackers, thinkers, strategists, disruptors, leaders, technologists, and creators with one foot in the future to discuss the most pressing issues of the day and provide insight into the ways technology is evolving. OODAcon is not just about understanding the future, but developing the resiliency to thrive and survive in…
OODA CEO Matt Devost and Raymond Roberts, in a fireside chat on The Future of Money at OODAcon 2022, began with a discussion of origins of their interest in bitcoin, the history of money and the global fiat currency standard as a necessary introduction to a longer discussion of the future of money. Later in the discussion they cover the future of smart contracts, Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs), Digital Asset Exchanges (DAXs), and Non-fungible Tokens NFTs). Find the conversation here.
According to the customer development, lean startup model, a firm grasp on “market type” (i.e. creating a new market or entering an existing market) is central to any startup companies success or incumbent companies efforts at innovation (or self-cannibalization to stay ahead of external disruption). How will Elon Musk’s vision of X handle the already existent market traction of Signal, Telegram, and Paypal in what is emerging as the synthesis of social media apps and financial payments systems. Details here.
Trust – between individuals, governents and corporations, machines and technology platforms – is both under attack and undergoing a fundamental transformation. The Atlantic Council’s frames these issue as the “Economy of Trust” – which will rely on “innovation and invention, informed by data, to mitigate concerns surrounding the impacts and risks of emerging technologies.” Atlantic Council researcher Borja Prado explores the future of public trust and how a new paradigm of trust will be necessary to address the exponential growth of automation and quantum technologies.
A detailed explanation of SWIFT (The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication), its relation to the fiat currency standard – along with an update on SWIFT’s blockchain pilot efforts.
OODA CEO Matt Devost and Raymond Roberts, in a fireside chat on The Future of Money at OODAcon 2022, discussed the origins of their interest in bitcoin, the history of money and the global fiat currency standard as a necessary introduction to a longer discussion of the future of money.
Financial network complexity, biased algorithms, regulatory considerations, and predictive analytics (based on faulty foundational models) are only a few of the risk variables that will determine the future of AI in the finance sector. Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler, in his previous life as an MIT Sloan School of Management Professor, wrote a seminal paper on deep learning and financial stability. Find the still prescient insights from the paper here.
What if blockchain moves away from a store of value to a store of information as a priority- all the while facing the exponential growth of bitcoin storage requirements? Ordinal inscriptions present this challenge for the bitcoin ecosystem. Unintended consequence aside, bitcoin boosters and evangelist soldier on with the launch of The Open Ordinals Institute. Details here.
The convergence of machine learning, deep learning and genomics, especially in the area of AI-powered genomic health prediction, while remarkably promising will also present remarkably challenging unintended consequences. A recent report suggests areas which need to be explored – starting now – as “the issues posed by the…technologies become harder to predict, more complex and more numerous.”
Can trust and safety in the modern Internet be improved? This post reviews conclusions from the Digital Forensics Research Lab (DFRLab) that can lead to improvements in trust and safety at scale.
Following are two noteworthy developments in the future of drone warfare. One, the expansion of drone warfare capabilities by the Department of Defense “at scale”. The other: a troubling drone presence in the northern frontier region of Mexico.
A collaborative group of security researchers with Web3 expertise has produced a 12 question guide to the basics of Web3 security. This report captures those 12 questions and provides context around their optimal use.
Last week, “the Department of Defense (DoD) announced the establishment of a generative artificial intelligence (AI) task force, an initiative that reflects the DoD’s commitment to harnessing the power of artificial intelligence in a responsible and strategic manner. Led by the Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Office (CDAO), Task Force Lima will assess, synchronize, and employ generative AI capabilities across the DoD, ensuring the Department remains at the forefront of cutting-edge technologies while safeguarding national security.’
The announcement of Task Force Lima was scheduled as part of the CDAO’s presence at DEFCON31 last week in Las Vegas, Nevada. Dr. Craig Martell, chief digital and AI officer at the U.S. Defense Department (DoD), took the stage last Friday at DEFCON31 to introduce the con attendees to Task Force Lima – and share some insights on the “LLM Hype Cycle” (Dr. Martell is also an adjunct professor at Northeastern University and teaches machine learning courses on a regular basis).
Editor’s note: Scott is part of our OODA network. It has been great meeting with him in person and interacting with several of his CEOs as well. Since we clearly have to focus more 0n material’s science here at OODA Loop when we saw him posting on the topic at LinkedIn we asked if…
Boardrooms face seemingly unending governance, disclosure, regulatory and legal challenges related to digital systems risk (see, for example, the latest SEC requirements for board cybersecurity). This is exacerbated by the rapid adoption of AI; a digital technology that society is just beginning to grapple with and understand. AI is a powerful capability being added to the digital tool arsenal which businesses must employ to compete and win. These tools have…
“The U.S. Department of Defense and the Indian Ministry of Defense launched the India-U.S. Defense Acceleration Ecosystem (INDUS-X)…against the backdrop of Prime Minister Modi’s [June 2023] State Visit to the White House, [with India poised to take over China and the world’s most populous nation], and at a time of historic momentum for the relationship between the United States and India, INDUS-X will vitalize…defense industrial cooperation and unlock new innovations in technology and manufacturing.
We continue our series on the Future of Blockchain with the adrenaline rush that is a U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) report on Blockchain in Finance:Legislative and Regulatory Actions Are Needed to Ensure Comprehensive Oversight of Crypto Assets. Joking aside, while GAO reports are in fact some of the drier fare that crosses our desk in the course of our research, this report is a window into the current thinking on U.S. regulation of the blockchain – and, for that, its clarity and straightforwardness is of value and worth a review.
DCVC has released a “report from the front, as seen by our partnership” capturing where they see the future of deep tech – including an additional $1 billion in DCV C investment fund focused on deep tech, including national security (NatSec) investment and American competiveness.
Synthetic biology is a field that involves the engineering of biological systems to create new organisms or modify existing ones for various applications, such as healthcare, agriculture, and industrial processes. We continue our efforts to understand the risks and opportunities in this exponential industry sector by taking a look at the role blockchain technology will play in synthetic biology, particularly in areas related to data management, security, and collaboration. This research is also part of our current series on the Future of Blockchain.
A recent article in Politico, “Rust belt on the Rhine”, lays out many of the monumental challenges the German economy and society face in the future: Declining traditional industries, mostly centered around automotive. No major players in new tech sectors. A byzantine bureaucracy. A finance sector that is a shadow of its former self.…
In the months before the recent 2023 NATO Summit in Lithiuania, the NATO’s Defence Innovation Accelerator for the North Atlantic (DIANA) opened its European regional office at the Imperial College London Innovation Hub in London in May and launched its first three pilot challenge programs. This operational “standup” was all in a timeline of less than a year since the NATO Foreign Ministers endorsed the charter for DIANA in April 2022.
This project is fully operational, but had to start as a rigorous speculative design process – more sci-fi than real world. Until it wasn’t. It is representative of the kind of project that will still feel like a faraway future, but is currently manufacturing a drug experiment in space. Take a look at the The Varda Space Drug Factory.
AI has crushed cryptocurrency in the recent technology hype cycle, garnering VC and mainstream media attention fast on the heels FTX Sam Bankman-Fried debacle which tarnished the entire crpytocurrency ecosystem. What is going on with crypto you may ask? Two recent, majro developments in the crypto space broke through in the last few weeks and are worth our readers attention.
Tactically, China recently made a significant geopoltical and in the IT supply chain move, restricting exports of two minerals used in high-performance chips. Following is a summary of the new Chinese policy – followed by links to our original analysis series on rare earth, critical minerals and the global IT supply chain (disruption, innovation and weaponization).
Like the Unix, Solaris, Irix, AIX Open Source operating systems that became the Linux-led open source operating system and the broader open source software movement (over a 30 to 40 year time period) the open source large language model “market” is poised to eat up market share in an exponentially fast time frame. Hugging Face has created an “Open LLM-Perf Leaderboard” for your organization to track, quantify and evaluate this exponential growth of LLM performance.
The Homeland Security Startup Studio (HSSS) hosted the hybrid Converge event on July 10 from 1-5 p.m. EST. This culminating event of the 2023 cohort showcased the program finalists’ pitches for the cutting-edge technologies they have worked to advance over the past 18 weeks. Conducted in partnership with the venture-building company FedTech, HSSS brings together entrepreneurs, mentors, and inventors to accelerate and commercialize federally-funded technologies that meet homeland security needs. The event featured keynote speaker Jen Easterly, director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA).
The SVDG recently introduced the inaugural version of the NatSec100, a “newly developed, annual ranked list of the top venture-funded defense and dual-use startups. It was developed to offer a data-driven snapshot of the evolving techno-security ecosystem” – including policy recommendations.
In 2024, one billion people around the world will go to the polls for national elections. From the US presidential election in 2024 to the war in Ukraine, we’re entering the era of deepfake geopolitics, where experts are concerned about the impact on elections and public perception of the truth.
Margie Palmieri, DoD Deputy CDAO, will be in a fireside chat format with Jim Mitre from the RAND Corporation on the standing up of the CDAO operation since it was established in February 2022 and operational by June 2022. Ther are many lessons to learn from this operational case study by the private sector – and the DoD CDAO will be play a key role in risk management of national security issues fueled by AI (deep fakes, etc.) – which will have a direct impact on business strategy in the months and years ahead.
SolarWinds, the enterprise technology company made famous after suffering a nation state directed cyber attack in 2020, has been served notice by the SEC that further action is coming. Not only did they receive their own Wells Notice in October, but now two individuals, their CFO and CISO, have as well. This is the…
As recently as a couple of weeks ago, we described recent statements by an official in the DoD Chief Information Office (CIO) – about the potential for a “faster, secure pipeline” for commercial SMBs trying to innovate on behalf of the DoD – as the rare DoD signal of an awareness of the challenges faced by small business tech contractors. In contrast, equally as rare is the very recent cavalcade of reports of real movement on rapid acquisition initiatives, a letter submitted to the DoD by major industry players (Anduril, Palantir, etc.) to “speed up innovation” and a $1B House appropriation proposal to push commercial tech. To balance out the good news, we also include in this post metrics illustrative of the fact that, while the Defense Industrial Base “is still quite vast…it is steadily shrinking.” Finally, some interesting ideas about how AI/ML may be leveraged into innovation in the efficiency of procurement and the product development process for commercial firms dealing with the DoD.
The release and success of ChatGPT have thrown policymakers into a frenzy of AI regulatory activity. Meanwhile, as with privacy and crypto regulation, the EU is setting the global standard with the recent passage of the EU Artificial Intelligence Act. Over the course of 2021 – as we reviewed a variety of research efforts concerned with AI Risk, AI Ethics, and Trustworthy AI – we made recommendations at the enterprise level based on a July 2021 policy brief “AI Accidents: An Emerging Threat – What Could Happen and What to Do” from the Center for Security and Emerging Technology) (CSET) and the availability of the AI Incident Database (AIID).
In this post, We resume our efforts to understand the risks and opportunities in the exponential Biotech, Medical and Healthcare sector by taking a look at a seminal case study by the Blockchain Research Institute on the future of patients owning and controlling their medical data – all on the blockchain. This research is also part of our current series on the Future of Blockchain.
In his farewell address, then President Dwight D. Eisenhower acknowledged the need to “guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence…by the military-industrial complex,” a term to address the intensifying relationship between government and the private sector’s defense industrial base (DIB), and its potential influence on national policy. In the years since his departure, there has been increasing…
Every once in a while a signal emerges from our tracking efforts which feels like finding a needle in a haystack. This development is one of those times.
Opportunities for advantage will be created by the exponential disruption of the industrial base (including that of defense) coupled with exponential biotechnology innovation to build the bioeconomy of the future. The creation of this technology and business ecosystem of the future is already underway.
This post reviews some of our research into the future of technology, specifically the technology enabled shared reality known as the Metaverse. This site has been writing about the Metaverse since 2003. But the term goes back a decade before then. It was a construct articulated by Neal Stephenson in his SciFi masterpiece Snowcrash.…
On Monday, June 12 at 2:35 p.m. PT, Falcon 9 launched Transporter-8, SpaceX’s eighth dedicated smallsat rideshare program mission, from Space Launch Complex 4E at Vandenberg Space Force Base in California.
After the murder by the Russian state of his company’s lead lawyer in Russia – Sergei Magnitsky – Bill Browder became a sworn enemy of Vladimir Putin. So, considering his experience and resources available to protect himself, his family, and his business and activist communications against the Russian threat directed at him, Browder’s recent appearances on a few media outlets recounting a live deep fake video call experience he had recently is, well, alarming – and worth a post here to raise your organizations risk awareness.
As we begin to ramp up for OODAcon 2023 (October 25th in Reston, VA), we return to the Keynote Conversation between Bob Gourley and Vint Cerf OODAcon 2022. Find the full transcript below, as well as a link to the audio file. There are numerous takeaways from the conversation. We encourage you to spend time with the entire transcript. Two questions from Bob and Vint’s responses, however, are worth highlighting at the top of this post – as they significantly influenced our 2023 research agenda and our collective, internal OODA Loop here at OODA.
As part of a new program to bridge the “valley of death” for military technology, The Defense Department (DoD) recently announced 11 new projects: “The…projects range from commercial satellite communications terminals for the Marine Corps to integrated air defense cameras for the Defense Innovation Unit to network enhancements in contested environments for the Navy.”
This post is a primer on a big topic, adversarial machine learning. More than any other development of, say, the last five to eight years, adversarial machine learning is very representative of a quote from Paul Virilio which is part of the research canon here at OODA: “The invention of the ship was also the invention of the shipwreck.”
The 2023 Quad Leaders Summit (which was supposed to meet in Australia on May 24, 2023, after the G7 Summit in Japan) was canceled (after Joe Biden shortened his Asia trip to attend to the debt ceiling negotiations in D.C.). Highlights from the brief meeting by the Quad leaders at the tail end of the G7 Summit can be found below – followed by a report by our friends over at the Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET) on “Quad AI: Assessing AI-related Collaboration between the United States, Australia, India, and Japan.”
Following is a survey of recently announced GPT platforms of note – culled from the exponential generative AI headlines of the last few months. It is a curated selection of *GPT and *AI platforms for the OODA Loop readership – across a wide swath of industry sectors. From JPMorgan’s IndexGPT patent application to Crowdstrike’s Charlotte AI, survey the fat of the AI land here.
Sci-Fi fans and futurists have long envisioned a mechanism that would capture solar power from space, focus it and transmit it to earth as a way of providing more efficient energy for humanity. There are many theoretical potential benefits of this if it can be made to work, including less pollution and no fear…
Research courtesy of the Blockchain Research Institute explores how the blockchain will be the foundational technology of the multi-sided technology platforms of the future. In this case study, a platform that consists of everything from drones to proprietary connected devices for food production can contribute to a strategic pivot to large-scale sustainability practices in…
OODA CEO Matt Devost featured the advent of adversarial machine learning in his keynote at OODAcon 2022. In recent conversations with OODA Senior Advisor and Network Member Chris Ward, we discussed the challenges inherent in protecting Controlled Unclassified Information (CUI) in nonfederal systems and organizations. NIST has working drafts available for public comment that address both strategic challenges. At the very least, take a look at this post and ask the question we are asking: Is NIST asking the right questions in its research efforts? Or, if these working drafts speak to your organization’s core competencies or address risk awareness and strategy in a really compelling manner, consider participating in the open comment period on one or both research efforts.
A shout-out and a thank you to the Ontario, Canada-based Blockchain Research Institute (BRI) and the authors of this research. BRI allows for the distribution of a high percentage of its blockchain research of really interesting case studies with real-world applications via a Creative Commons license. The first BRI report we feature as part of our research and analysis of blockchain technologies in the agriculture industry sector is a pilot project from Walmart in collaboration with IBM using IBM’s blockchain solution based on Hyperledger Fabric.
This special report is a guide into some of the darker sides of AI deployments.
When fielded incorrectly, AI can do more harm to your business than good. Rogue AI can damage brands, invoke bad decisions and cause your organization to unintentionally fall out of compliance with regulations or potentially even break the law. It is important to remember that whenever we enter into a period or advanced innovation, adversaries also seek to exploit those innovations. In the case of AI, adversaries are already using this technology for nefarious ends.
Of the industry sectors exploring Blockchain technologies the Financial Services sector (Banking & Capital Markets, Insurance, Investment Management – including Real Estate and Digital Assets/NFTs) seems to have the most activity-based simply on the sheer volume of projects. According to analysts and industry research, interest and investments in blockchain remain strongest in the financial sector. It makes sense, as crypto is to the disintermediation of money, so too blockchain technology will reshape financial services not much unlike the way the Internet reshaped media. The analysis of the Canton Network found here is the first in our series of best-in-class blockchain technology case studies in the financial sector. We include a white paper, which describes the Canton Network as “a smart contract network of networks that overcomes these limitations and enables each application provider to define their application’s privacy, scaling, permissions, and governance while being part of broader decentralized and permissionless public networks.”
Explore and understand Virtual Singapore through the larger strategic initiatives of which the project is a part and the strategic collaborations across the public and private sectors that are making this virtual city-state a reality.
Of the many courses of action discussed by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman when he testified before Congress earlier this week, the creation of a global body to manage the governance of AI came up several times. The International Atomic Energy Agency and CERN were mentioned as models.
For now, the 2023 G7 Summit meeting in Hiroshima, Japan this weekend is the initial filter we are applying to the potential for global collaboration specific to the risks and opportunities of artificial intelligence. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has done some great work on this topic.
In a previous post, we dissected NIST’s white paper on Blockchain for Access Control Systems (NIST IR 8403) (1). Both projects offer a great overview of the promise of blockchain technologies at the physical device layer and opportunities for the creative development of an innovative marketplace for novel defensive cybersecurity platforms. We will now take a look at the IEEE P2958 standard, which the World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) announced in July 2022 has been recommended as an official web standard: Decentralized Identifiers (DIDs) v1.0: “This new type of verifiable identifier, which does not require a centralized registry, will enable both individuals and organizations to take greater control of their online information and relationships while also providing greater security and privacy.”
The OODA LLC team and members of the OODA Network have participated in or led hundreds of red teams across many divergent disciplines, ranging from strategic and tactical cyber to physical security threats – like infectious diseases or nuclear power plant targeting – to more abstract items like Joint Operating Concepts. We recently looked for patterns in the exponential adoption of ChatGPT, large language models (LLMs), and neural language models (NLMs) – and how it has intersected with the red teaming discipline. Here is what we found and the results are encouraging, including plans for a grand challenge at the AI Village at the upcoming DEFCON31 in August in Las Vegas, which will include access to models made available from Anthropic, Google, Hugging Face, Microsoft, NVIDIA, OpenAI, and Stability AI.
Japan has entered the commercial space race, by way of the Tokyo-based space startup ispace, inc. Following are details about the company in the run-up to its 2022 maiden mission in partnership with SpaceX: the launch of a lunar lander – the first by a commercial space company.
In May of 2022, The National Institute of Standards and Technologies (NIST) released a white paper with a promising perspective on the role of blockchain at the OSI physical layer by way of access control systems. Meanwhile, The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) Identity of Things Working Group has been working with a global consortium on the development of the IEEE P2958 standards. These projects offer a great overview of the promise of blockchain technologies at the physical device layer and opportunities for the creative development of an innovation marketplace for novel defensive cybersecurity platforms. We review the NIST and IEEE efforts here in two separate posts. We begin with the NIST white paper.
Fast on the heels of his May 4th meeting at the White House with Vice President Kamala Harris and other top administration officials to discuss responsible AI innovation, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman returns to D.C. – this time on Capitol Hill – as a witness testifying before the United States Senate Committee on the Judiciary, Subcommittee on Privacy, Technology, and the Law. If your organization is sorting through the risk awareness concerns and competitive landscape brought on by the release of OpenAI’s ChatGPT late last year, this hearing may well be as interesting as Bill Gates’ seminal testimony during the browser wars in 1995. You can find the live stream here at 10 AM EST on Tuesday, May 16th. It will then be available as an on-demand stream once the archived video and subcommittee testimony documents are available to update this post.
OODA Network Member Randall Fort’s company is amongst the companies pitching in this session from the 2023 RSA Conference (RSAC) a few weeks ago. Watch three selected early-stage startups give a 5-minute pitch to leading security venture capitalists Bob Ackerman, Emily Heath, and Arik Kleinstein to gain advice, interest and maybe help in investment.
Zapata Computing and L3Harris will be working with the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) to explore quantum computing solutions for the Department of Defense (DOD) and other industries. The project involves developing hardware-agnostic benchmarks that will guide the practical application of quantum computing and how it can support broader industry applications. The project will measure progress toward specific quantum computing challenges, such as: Creating new materials; Simulating fluid dynamics; Real-time machine learning; Engineering design optimization; and Creating benchmarks from real-world computational problems that can be used to compare the performance of different quantum hardware and algorithms.
While technically in production and heading towards operations, this project still had to start as a speculative design process – more sci-fi than concrete. It is representative of the kind of project that will still feel like a faraway future but is launching as early as 2026. Take a look at this remarkable artistic rendering of ClearSpace 1- set to launch the first active debris removal mission with Arianespace Vega C.
AI Image Generation Is Becoming Very Disruptive Several new AI enabled image generation applications are available for widespread use. The most famous are OpenAI’s DALL-E, Stable Diffusion and Midjourney. These capabilities are being leveraged in other applications now, and many tech firms are beginning to embed these and other similar capabilities into their offerings. …
I am one of those late adopters of new technologies. I was one of the last people I knew to get a cell phone in roughly 2002 to 2003. Thus, I waited a few months to play with ChatGPT as others discussed its virtues. But as I pondered its potential applications to my research, I…
The following discussion was part of the OODA Network monthly meeting held on Friday, April 21st, 2023 – The OODA Network Discussion on What is Next in the World of AI: Governance, Regulation, and Innovation at Exponential Speed