Once again, we present to you the annual OODA Almanac which is intended to be a quirky forecasting of themes that the OODA Network think will be emergent in 2022. Our 2021 Almanac had some great frameworks for understanding the year ahead with lots of compelling insights. The theme for this year is surviving and thriving in an age of exponential disruption. It seems that everything is getting disrupted; national security, economic security, technology, culture and media. New ideas are old and old ideas are new. Here’s our take for 2022.

Initial Access Brokers (IAB) are poised to become a force in 2022, due to a unique skill set that positions them as a valuable commodity for the deployment of hostile cybercrime activity. IABs serve as middlemen, specializing in the exploitation of victims and gaining initial entry. Once achieved and sustained, these actors sell these unique accesses to interested customers on dark web forums and markets. In this capacity, they execute the first phase of a cyber-attack chain, performing the necessary research prior to conducting an operation. Emilio Iaisiello explores the implications of the growth of IABs.

We are conscious of our need to keep our usual variety of News Brief and OODA Analysis, but for obvious reasons, this week is top-heavy with Russian, NATO, and Ukrainian coverage. We intend on keeping our focus on providing context you need vice the blow by blow of major moves. Like in other domains we endeavor to provide the “So What?” and “What’s Next?” you need to help drive your decisions.

OODA’s experts have decades of experience in geopolitical risk, including deep experience in the US intelligence community which resulted in foundational knowledge on Russian culture, history and motivations. We maintain awareness of current thinking of analysts in and around the intelligence community through community events, email lists and video meetings, and have been pulled into an almost daily dialog with experts on how things may unfold in Europe because of Russia’s actions here.

The Everyday Astronaut’s Tim Dodd is your color commentator for this archived live stream of the James Webb Space Telescope | Ariane 5 ECA launch from Christmas Day a few weeks ago.

Following is an update of Log4Shell activities organized by nation-states – with non-state actors and cybercriminal organizations which are suspected to be state-affiliated or located in the country.