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Decision Intelligence and Establishing an Intelligent Enterprise

The greatest determinant of your success will be the quality of your decisions. We examine frameworks for understanding and reducing risk while enabling opportunities. Topics include Black Swans, Gray Rhinos, Foresight, Strategy, Stratigames, Business Intelligence and Intelligent Enterprises. Leadership in the modern age is also a key topic in this domain.

Members are also invited to discuss this topic at the OODA Member Forum on Slack.

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A Practitioner’s View of Corporate Intelligence

Organizations in competitive environments should continually look for ways to gain advantage over their competitors. The ability of a business to learn and translate that learning into action, at speeds faster than others, is one of the most important competitive advantages you can have. This fact of business life is why the model of success in Air to Air combat articulated by former Air Force fighter pilot John Boyd, the Observe – Orient – Decide – Act (OODA) decision loop, is so relevant in business decision-making today. In this business model, decisions are based on observations of dynamic situations tempered with business context to drive decisions and actions. These actions should change the situation meaning new observations and new decisions and actions will follow. This all underscores the need for a good corporate intelligence program. See: A Practitioner’s View of Corporate Intelligence

Optimizing Corporate Intelligence

This post dives into actionable recommendation on ways to optimize a corporate intelligence effort. It is based on a career serving large scale analytical efforts in the US Intelligence Community and in applying principles of intelligence in corporate America. See: Optimizing Corporate Intelligence

Mental Models For Leadership In The Modern Age

The study of mental models can improve your ability to make decisions and improve business outcomes. This post reviews the mental models we recommend all business and government decision makers master, especially those who must succeed in competitive environments. See: Mental Models for Leadership In The Modern Age 


An Executive’s Guide To Cognitive Bias in Decision Making

Cognitive Bias and the errors in judgement they produce are seen in every aspect of human decision-making, including in the business world. Companies that have a better understanding of these cognitive biases can optimize decision making at all levels of the organization, leading to better performance in the market. Companies that ignore the impact these biases have on corporate decision-making put themselves at unnecessary risk. This post by OODA Co-Founder Bob Gourley provides personal insights into key biases as well as mitigation strategies you can put in place right now. See: An Executive’s Guide To Cognitive Bias in Decision Making

OODA On Corporate Intelligence In The New Age

We strongly encourage every company, large or small, to set aside dedicated time to focus on ways to improve your ability to understand the nature of the significantly changed risk environment we are all operating in today, and then assess how your organizational thinking should change. As an aid to assessing your corporate sensemaking abilities, this post summarizes OODA’s research and analysis into optimizing corporate intelligence for the modern age. See: OODA On Corporate Intelligence In The New Age

Useful Standards For Corporate Intelligence

This post discusses standards in intelligence, a topic that can improve the quality of all corporate intelligence efforts and do so while reducing ambiguity in the information used to drive decisions and enhancing the ability of corporations to defend their most critical information. See: Useful Standards For Corporate Intelligence

John Boyd on Patterns of Conflict and the OODA Loop

John Boyd studied. He studied fighter pilot tactics, studied aeronautical engineering, studied bureaucrats and how to avoid their traps, studied evolution and biology, and studied history. And Boyd synthesized in a way that only a real practitioner of war could to produce a briefing called Patterns of Conflict that is still having a big impact on the world today. A full copy of the briefing is linked here. This post summarizes some key points worth reflecting on as the world views and reacts to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. See: Boyd on Patterns of Conflict

The OODA Loop Explained: The real story about the ultimate model for decision-making in competitive environments

In this article Matt Devost and Bob Gourley provide practitioner’s context on a concept near and dear to our heart, the OODA Loop. In doing so we capture why this concept is so relevant to any competitive situation, including business and cybersecurity. The OODA Loop is an approach to decision-making developed by retired Air Force Colonel John Boyd based on his decades of experience as a pilot and extensive study of the greatest battles in history. See: The OODA Loop Explained: The real story about the ultimate model for decision-making in competitive environments

In Business, Like In War, Data Is A Weapon

Broadly speaking, a weapon is anything that provides an advantage over an adversary. In this context, data is, and always has been, a weapon. This post, part of our Intelligent Enterprise series, focuses on how to take more proactive action in use of data as a weapon. See: Data is a Weapon

Fine Tuning Your Falsehood Detector: Time to update the models you use to screen for deception, dishonesty, corruption, fraud and falsity

The best business leaders are good at spotting falsehoods. Some joke and say the have a “bullshit detector”, but that humorous description does not do service to the way great leaders detect falsehoods. Bullshit is easy to detect. You see it and smell it and if you step in it it is your own fault. In the modern world falsehoods are far more nuanced. Now more than ever, business and government leaders need to ensure their mental models for detecting falsehood are operating in peak condition. For more see: Fine Tuning Your Falsehood Detector: Time to update the models you use to screen for deception, dishonesty, corruption, fraud and falsity

The OODA C-Suite Report: Operational Intelligence for Business Leaders

What is the value of an informed decision? At OODA Loop, we seek to surface decision intelligence that provides meaningful perspective for leaders and analysts looking to make the most informed decisions possible. This list below represent developments that fit the category of operating in a VUCA world, identifying and responding to Gray Rhino risks, or opportunities from advancements in emerging technology domains. These are issues we think our members should be tracking and map to collection requirements for our team to keep you as informed as possible. We categorize and summarize these big trends into Geopolitical Issues, Technology Trends, Cyber Risk Issues, and Recommendations for Action.

Scenario Planning for Strategic Decision-making

Scenario planning is an often overlooked aspect of corporate decision-making. But it is needed now more than ever. Scenario planning is a methodology for helping leaders think through alternative futures in a way that enables identification of issues. It raises potential outcomes and impacts and helps conceptualize potential risks and opportunities so organizations can be better prepared. For more see: Scenario Planning for Strategic Decision-making

Potential Future Opportunities, Risks and Mitigation Strategies in the Age of Continuous Crisis

Now more than ever, organizations need to apply rigorous thought to business risks and opportunities. In doing so it is useful to understand the concepts embodied in the terms Black Swan and Gray Rhino. For more see: Potential Future Opportunities, Risks and Mitigation Strategies in the Age of Continuous Crisis

C-Suite Considerations Regarding Current Geopolitical Tensions

Something is different in the geopolitical situation today. The reasons are probably a combination of factors that include the pandemic, the rise of the global grid of cyberspace, plus the payoff of years of planning and strategic moves by our adversaries. But whatever the reasons, the world today is more complicated and more dangerous than the world of just a year ago, and in many cases the risks being faced by open societies have never been seen before. The changes are so significant, OODA recommends all business leaders take stock of the geopolitical situation and assess how the nature of these changes should impact your business strategy.

“The world is a more dangerous and complicated place than it was just a year ago. Your corporate strategy and defensive posture needs to reflect that”

See: C-Suite Considerations Regarding Current Geopolitical Tensions

America’s Most Critical Infrastructure is also Our Most Neglected Infrastructure

Our thesis is that America’s most critical infrastructure is our cognitive infrastructure. This is also the most attacked and least defended. In short, our most important infrastructure is also our most neglected infrastructure. We recognize that most all of our members are deeply experienced in the matters we are exploring in this series and we would welcome your feedback/comments and suggestions. We would also encourage you to use this information to shape your personal approach to decision-making as well as the approach in your business or organization. For more see: America’s Most Critical Infrastructure is also Our Most Neglected Infrastructure

Mitigating Risks To America’s Cognitive Infrastructure

The nation’s cognitive infrastructure includes the mental capacities of our citizens and the decision-making ability of people, organizations and our government. It also includes the information channels used to feed our decision-making capabilities and the education and training systems used to prepare people and organizations for critical thinking. Our cognitive infrastructure is threatened in ways few of us ever imagined just a few years ago. Old style propaganda has been modernized and is now being aided by advanced technologies and new information dissemination methods. It is pretty clear that our cognitive infrastructure deserves to be treated with the respect of our other critical infrastructures. Just like the other sectors, the government can have a huge role in protecting it. See: Mitigating Risks To America’s Cognitive Infrastructure

What You Need to Know About Hostile Social Manipulation

A recent RAND report looks at the role of information warfare and how targeted social media campaigns and similar approaches are deployed to cause damage to a state. RAND has coined the term “hostile social manipulation” to capture this phenomenon, which builds on familiar influence techniques including propaganda and disinformation. Hostile social manipulation is used to gain a competitive advantage by manipulating the political, social, and economic conditions in target countries through information channels. It targets beliefs and attitudes, not physical assets or military forces, allowing the activity to operate in a gray space that exists below the threshold of war. See: What You Need to Know About Hostile Social Manipulation

National Cognitive Infrastructure Protection:  What Can We Learn from the Swedish Psychological Defence Authority? 

In 2019, OODA CTO Bob Gourley penned a two-part series on the neglect of our national Cognitive Infrastructure, which includes the mental capacities of our citizens and the decision-making ability of people, organizations, and our government. It also includes the information channels used to feed our decision-making capabilities and the education and training systems used to prepare people and organizations for critical thinking. In the series, Bob discussed the efforts by the U.S. government in the 1990s to create a framework for “Critical Infrastructure Protection” when talking about manufacturing, dams, the energy sector, nuclear reactors, etc. But what about the protection of our critical cognitive infrastructure, which is threatened in ways few of us ever imagined just a few years ago? The Swedes offer an exemplary agency model.

For insights into decision intelligence from our OODAcast series see this playlist of intelligence, analysis and analytics experts:

Use OODA Loop to improve your decision making in any competitive endeavor

The Decision Intelligence Archive

Why The OODA Loop? Because everything is in a ceaseless flux.

A young Brazilian Mixed Martial Arts fighter has just kicked off a wave of interest in the teachings of a little known philosopher, Ludwig von Mises.

This has generated excitement among Boyd fans, who have long seen a connection between the philosophy of Mises and the attitudes and approaches of Boyd. Moicano has also been made a hero of the cryptocurrency community for the way he contextualized Mises.

Continue Reading Why The OODA Loop? Because everything is in a ceaseless flux.

Is Your Board of Directors Integrating AI Governance into its Corporate Oversight and Disclosure Efforts?

We found a compelling ISS-Corporate memorandum  – AI and Board Of Directors Oversight: AI Governance Appears on Corporate Radar – authored by Veronica Nikitas.  The report provides a robust quantitative framework for this topic’s core issues. In this post, you will find the key takeaways and excerpts from the report, as well as a forward-thinking conclusion by the author. 

Continue Reading Is Your Board of Directors Integrating AI Governance into its Corporate Oversight and Disclosure Efforts?

What Can Your Organization Learn from the Use Cases of Large Language Models in Medicine and Healthcare?

Other industry sectors should keep a close eye on the critical milestones and pitfalls of the biotech/healthcare space – with an eye toward what platform, product, service innovations, and architectures may have a potable value proposition within your industry. The Stanford Institute for Human-Centered AI (HAI) is doing great work fielding research in healthcare with quantifiable results that offer a window into AI as a general applied technology in this vast but shallow early implementation phase of “AI for the enterprise.”  Details here. 

Continue Reading What Can Your Organization Learn from the Use Cases of Large Language Models in Medicine and Healthcare?

Widespread European Farmer Protests, Some Violent, are Another Dispatch from The Ministry for the Future

In this, the fifth installment in our “Dispatches from the Ministry for the Future” series, we take the time to do more of a deep dive into the speculative fiction/science fiction novel that inspired this eponymous series of posts – followed by details of the farmer protest that have broken out all over the EU in the last year or so.  In the  What Next? section of this post:  Utopian and dystopian OODA Loop scenarios based on the searing, completely plausible narrative of our potential global future that is so powerfully rendered in the pages of “The Ministry for the Future.” 

Continue Reading Widespread European Farmer Protests, Some Violent, are Another Dispatch from The Ministry for the Future

A ChatGPT Use Case for the Board of Directors: Corporate Disclosure and Policy Assessments

Researchers from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)  offer some foundational thinking on how ChatGPT can be applied to corporate disclosures and policies.  According to the authors, this “study provides a first look at the potential of ChatGPT to extract managerial expectations and corporate policies. We believe that our findings have important implications for…

Continue Reading A ChatGPT Use Case for the Board of Directors: Corporate Disclosure and Policy Assessments

Will The AI Safety Institute – and the Consortium Model – Insure an AI-safe Future?

Consistent with our recent analysis of government regulation (or overregulation?) of AI, and the introduction of the concept of the “decontrol” of AI, the recent launch of the AI Safety Institute (organized as a public/private consortium) begs the same questions:  although a public/private collaboration, is the AI Safety Institute an extension of an overall climate of over-regulation of AI in the U.S.? Or it is an architecture that enhances governmental decontrol? 

Continue Reading Will The AI Safety Institute – and the Consortium Model – Insure an AI-safe Future?

Globalization Transformed: Where Should Your Organization “Nearshore” and/or “Friendshore”?

Various perspectives – on Latin American nearshoring and Indo-Pacific “friendshoring” with allied nations in an effort to secure and shorten global supply chains – as well as the emergence of “China +1” –  four emergent manufacturing hubs – can be found here in this post.  

Continue Reading Globalization Transformed: Where Should Your Organization “Nearshore” and/or “Friendshore”?

What is the Defense Industrial Base Consortium?

The Other Transaction Agreement (OTA) vehicle was also used recently by the Department of Defense (DoD) to award Advanced Technology International (ATI) “to serve as the consortium manager for the Defense Industrial Base Consortium (DIBC). This DIBC OTA will enable rapid research and allow access to commercial solutions for defense requirements and innovations from industry, academia, and non-traditional contractors.”  As a result, we set out to learn more about the DIBC for the OODA Loop community.  Details here. 

Continue Reading What is the Defense Industrial Base Consortium?

Where Is the Executive Order on Data Privacy?

While it is promising to see that these areas are being addressed at the highest levels of government, there is still one glaring omission that has yet to be treated with the same level of seriousness by the Executive Office – data privacy.  The United States has various laws at both the state and federal levels that address different aspects of data privacy.  Healthcare’s HIPAA Privacy Rule and the financial sector’s Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act are two such examples.  Yet despite some sector specific legislation in place, the United States fails to have a comprehensive national law like Europe’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) – that protects individuals and their sensitive data and ensure that the organizations that collect, process, and store such data do it in a responsible and accountable manner.

Continue Reading Where Is the Executive Order on Data Privacy?

The Future of Privacy Forum Releases a Generative AI Internal Policy Checklist

Since the release of ChatGPT in October of last year,  the signal to noise ratio re: solid, credible business strategy resources has been daunting. The Future of Privacy Forum (FPF) is a vetted, sophisticated, and thoughtful resource.  And sometimes checklists are good, even if used only to initiate formative conversations and frame core issues for decisionmakers on your team.  Find the FPC’s Generative AI for Organizational Use: Internal Policy Checklist here.

Continue Reading The Future of Privacy Forum Releases a Generative AI Internal Policy Checklist

The Latest Installment of CISA’s “Secure Tomorrow” Toolkit for Scenario Planning and Foresight Strategy

The Secure Tomorrow Series is a strategic foresight capability focused on anticipating future risk drivers, critical uncertainties, and trends—such as aging infrastructure, global pandemics, and emerging technologies— to help enhanced organizational resiliency to be robust against future uncertainties.  The second installment of the toolkit was made available this month.  

Continue Reading The Latest Installment of CISA’s “Secure Tomorrow” Toolkit for Scenario Planning and Foresight Strategy

The First $500M, 10,0000 GPU, AI Sovereign Territory – with Nation-state as a Service Offerings?

Vice News best captured the import of this story: “But there’s one glaring issue: Del Complex is not a real AI company, and its barge is similarly fake.”  Apparently, certain media elements to support the story are AI-generated, including “some of the images on its otherwise convincing-looking website have the hallmarks of being the product of AI-generation, including garbled text and strange facial features.” So, it is all a fictional scenario – which still is highly effective use of storytelling to point out the potential future of “technological sovereignty”  – and the future unintended consequence of organizations looking to skirt global regulation efforts.  

Continue Reading The First $500M, 10,0000 GPU, AI Sovereign Territory – with Nation-state as a Service Offerings?

The Climate Crisis, Texas’ Bitcoin Miners, and European Farmers

Loosely tethered to our previous update – “While Texas Declared a Grid Emergency, EU Fossil Generation is at Record Low” – two more climate crisis related developments are worth tracking as an indicator of what may be the new reality in this age of polycrisis.  We do not provide solutions but do mention mental frameworks important for leaders to master in finding solutions.

Continue Reading The Climate Crisis, Texas’ Bitcoin Miners, and European Farmers

“AI for Enterprise”: Lessons Learned from Healthcare, Hugging Face and Clinical Language Models

Healthcare is already in the midst of an AI revolution – with an applied technology market maturity which outpaces most other industry sectors which are in a reactive mode to the AI hype cycle.  Explore these AI healthcare use cases and apply them to your organization using design and systems thinking.  

Continue Reading “AI for Enterprise”: Lessons Learned from Healthcare, Hugging Face and Clinical Language Models

Responding to the Climate Crisis: The Worst Case Scenario is Not the Least Probable

This report provides an overview of some major climate crisis related events worth tracking as an indicator of what may be the new reality in this age of polycrisis. We do not provide solutions but do mention mental frameworks important for leaders to master in finding solutions. For this post, we focus on tactical, real-time signals and patterns. Following are a few of the manifest “edge cases” from the climate crisis which cropped up this week during our usual curation process.

Continue Reading Responding to the Climate Crisis: The Worst Case Scenario is Not the Least Probable

Board of Directors Will Need to Focus on the Human Factor of Cybersecurity

“As cyberattacks intensify, more and more organizations recognize the need to have a strong security culture for all employees. This cyber-aware workforce is a necessary addition to a skilled and knowledgeable security team and the use of advanced cybersecurity solutions. Employees who know how to practice good cyber hygiene are increasingly seen as a crucial…

Continue Reading Board of Directors Will Need to Focus on the Human Factor of Cybersecurity

Macron’s Recent Paris Summit Remarks Read Like a Charter Statement for the Ministry of the Future

French President Macron’s recent statements – as he hosted the Paris Summit for a New Global Financing Pact, which he organized – read like a formative charter statement for the creation of the United Nations-based Ministry of the Future (MotF) –  the fictional organization at the center of eponymously-titled speculative fiction novel by Kim Stanley Robinson.

Continue Reading Macron’s Recent Paris Summit Remarks Read Like a Charter Statement for the Ministry of the Future

The Future of Copyright Law, Fair Use and Generative AI

While the societal and business impact of AI continues to consume the headlines, the reality is the future of AI, to a large extent, will be formally litigated in the legal system. Following is an overview of the recently filed lawsuits with claims related to AI – followed by further resources and recent analyses of copyright, fair use and generative AI by the Congressional Research Service, the Stanford Institute for Human-Centered AI (HAI), the United States Copyright Office, the United States Patent and Trademark Office, and Recreating Europe. 

Continue Reading The Future of Copyright Law, Fair Use and Generative AI

The U.S. Looks to Direct Cyber Engagement to Reestablish Its Leadership Position

In May 2023, the U.S. government pledged USD $25 million in assistance to Costa Rica to bolster its cybersecurity efforts and cyber posture.  A year prior, Costa Rica suffered a debilitating series of ransomware attacks executed by the now defunct Conti ransomware gang that demanded USD $20 million or else the Costa Rican government would risk being “overthrown…

Continue Reading The U.S. Looks to Direct Cyber Engagement to Reestablish Its Leadership Position

Domestic Political Extremism in the U.S.: Situational Awareness for June 13, 2023

The long term impact of the historically unprecedented arraignment today (Tuesday, June 13, 2023) of a former U.S. President is unknown. We look at the event through the prism of the ongoing threat of domestic political extremism and violence in the U.S. In this epoch of poly-crisis – a cluster of interdependent global risks create a compounding effect, such that their overall impact exceeds the sum of their individual parts – the phrase “we are in unchartered territory” comes up frequently. But today is historically, quantifiably just that – in the form of an arraignment proceeding based on a 49-page indictment of a former U.S. President.

Continue Reading Domestic Political Extremism in the U.S.: Situational Awareness for June 13, 2023

Global Food Security, Grain Shipments from Ukraine and Tracking Russia’s Phantom Ships

Bellingcat, aided by satellite imagery service Planet, and CNN, with imagery from Maxar Technologies, both provide evidence that Russia continues to steal grain shipments from Ukraine – rerouting the food shipments through Crimean ports. 

Since the beginning of the war, Russia has blocked most Ukrainian ports and “maritime opportunities to export food…grain, barley, sunflower and more: ‘The world community must help Ukraine unblock seaports, otherwise the energy crisis will be followed by a food crisis and many more countries will face it,” Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said [earlier this month]. 

Continue Reading Global Food Security, Grain Shipments from Ukraine and Tracking Russia’s Phantom Ships

a16z Announces $500 Million Commitment to American Dynamism Investment Portfolio

Over the last 18 months, we have been tracking a growing community of venture capital firms committed to National Security Investment for American Competitiveness (including Schmidt Futures, America’s Frontier Fund, and Thomas Tull).  Marc Andreesen’s VC firm  – a16z – describes the same movement as “American Dynamism”.   According to the a16z partners – Katherine Boyle and David…

Continue Reading a16z Announces $500 Million Commitment to American Dynamism Investment Portfolio

Andy Warhol and Prince are the Future of Generative AI and Copyright Law

A recent Supreme Court ruling in the Andy Warhol Foundation for the Visual Arts, Inc. v. Goldsmith et. al. case will have broad implications for the generative AI platform architectures pushing the boundaries of copyright infringement and fair-use law. 

Feature Image Source: Image processing of  Warhol’s Prince portrait – along with images of Prince and Warhol generated by OpenAI’s DALL-E2 using the prompt:  “3D renderings of Prince and Andy Warhol.”

Continue Reading Andy Warhol and Prince are the Future of Generative AI and Copyright Law

Is the “General Deterrence Theory” Up to the Challenge of Domestic Political Extremism?

This weekend, we remember those who gave the ultimate sacrifice defending our freedom. In November of last year, OODA Network Member Brian Jenkins spoke to the OODA Network Member membership  on the threat posed by domestic political extremism. – which was followed by an OODA Network Q&A Session on Domestic Political Extremism and Violence.  We pull the string on these previous internal discussions here, exploring the role of recent convictions and sentencing as a general deterrent to extremism.  We also catch up with the latest research and findings from the Rand Corp., including an article by Brian Jenkins that warns against the inadvertent creation of martyrs.

Continue Reading Is the “General Deterrence Theory” Up to the Challenge of Domestic Political Extremism?

DHS National Terrorism Advisory System Bulletin: Summary of Terrorism Threat to the United States (May 2023- November 2023)

The United States remains in a heightened threat environment. Lone offenders and small groups motivated by a range of ideological beliefs and personal grievances continue to pose a persistent and lethal threat to the Homeland. In the coming months, factors that could mobilize individuals to commit violence include their perceptions of the 2024 general election cycle and legislative or judicial decisions pertaining to sociopolitical issues. Likely targets of potential violence include US critical infrastructure, faith-based institutions, individuals or events associated with the LGBTQIA+ community, schools, racial and ethnic minorities, and government facilities and personnel, including law enforcement.

Continue Reading DHS National Terrorism Advisory System Bulletin: Summary of Terrorism Threat to the United States (May 2023- November 2023)

The Future of Food (In)Security and Agriculture Cybersecurity: Grain Hoarding, Rice Shortages and the War in Ukraine

Global Health Security is a research area we will be laying out in the next few months, including the role of cybersecurity and emerging and exponential technologies in the area of growing food insecurity wrought by faltering economic and food security, which is where we start with a few broad perspectives on the core issues for this troubling and growing global crisis.

Continue Reading The Future of Food (In)Security and Agriculture Cybersecurity: Grain Hoarding, Rice Shortages and the War in Ukraine

OODA Senior Advisor and Network Member Chris Ward on Startups, SMBs, Innovation and the DoD Other Transaction Authority

Chris is a Senior Advisor at OODA LLC and an OODA Network Member. In this series of OODA interviews, we talk about how she came to be a part of OODA.  In subsequent conversations in this series, we will talk about Chris’ vast experience within the DoD, especially with procurement, operations, and specific programs like the Other Transaction Authority (OTA), amongst others.

Continue Reading OODA Senior Advisor and Network Member Chris Ward on Startups, SMBs, Innovation and the DoD Other Transaction Authority

The Current “On-chip” Innovation and Physical Layer Market Dynamics of GPT Model Training, Crypto Mining, AI and the Metaverse

Like the famous political campaign axiom:  “It’s the economy, stupid”, so goes a variation on the phrase that can be applied to the ongoing discussion about large language (LLM) model training, the development of the metaverse, AI, and crypto mining:  “It’s the physical layer, stupid.”  APIs, the application layer, and the cloud?  All good – but not as ephemeral and “cloud-like” as it is all made out to be sometimes.  In the end, there is a physical infrastructure running it all, and the current innovation at the physical layer  – in order to build the future  – is as interesting now as anything the future holds. 

Continue Reading The Current “On-chip” Innovation and Physical Layer Market Dynamics of GPT Model Training, Crypto Mining, AI and the Metaverse

What are the Implications of India overtaking China as the World’s Most Populous Nation?

In the second half of April 2023, the UN predicts India will become the most populous country in the world, surpassing China.  More than 40% of India’s residents are under the age of 25. People over the age of 65 only make up about 7%. India is also on track to become the world’s third-largest economy by 2027.

Continue Reading What are the Implications of India overtaking China as the World’s Most Populous Nation?

An Introductory Q&A with OODA Senior Advisor and Network Member Chris Ward

Chris is a Senior Advisor at OODA LLC and an OODA Network Member. In this series of OODA interviews, we talk about how she came to be a part of OODA.  In subsequent conversations in this series, we will talk about Chris’ vast experience within the DoD, especially with procurement, operations, and specific programs like the Other Transaction Authority (OTA), amongst others.

Continue Reading An Introductory Q&A with OODA Senior Advisor and Network Member Chris Ward

Cyber Assistance Fund Proposed by Cyber Ambassador Nate Fick as Part of Three-part Plan

In the What’s Next? section of our recent analysis of the U.S. Turning Strategic Focus Towards Cyber Threat Vectors in Guam, Albania, and Costa Rica, we mentioned that we would continue to follow the money. Specifically: Where is The State Department sending the next $25 Million block of cash to aid in a regional response…

Continue Reading Cyber Assistance Fund Proposed by Cyber Ambassador Nate Fick as Part of Three-part Plan

How to Manage Cyber Risk as a Board Director

The evolving responsibilities of board members to cyber security and cyber risk were highlighted as a theme in the OODA Almanac 2023. While cybersecurity has been a focus of corporate boardrooms in the past, it is about to become a required focus as the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) seeks to have companies identify a board of directors member as the cybersecurity lead.  OODA has specific expertise supporting the nexus between technical cybersecurity and corporate governance risk management and looks forward to supporting a wide range of companies by either placing a cybersecurity expert directly on the board or working as a consultant to the board to help guide their strategic initiatives and ensure they are exercising due care in managing cyber risks. Following is a guide for board members as they begin to explore the impact of cyber risk on the fiduciary responsibilities of a board of directors. 

Continue Reading How to Manage Cyber Risk as a Board Director

The DoD Cyber Workforce Strategy: Deploying an Agile, Capable, and Ready Cyber Workforce

Amidst our coverage of exponential technologies and national cognitive infrastructure protection, it is easy to take a purely technology-based perspective and neglect the human factor: the role of trained talent and future innovators in building the technology and platforms to solve the most pressing problems and address future risks, opportunities, and threats.  The OODA Loop Talent Superpower Strategy (The Human Factor) Series of posts over the course of this year is designed to track, research, and synthesize vital strategic issues from a human talent perspective. To start: an overview of the launch of a “cyber workforce of the future” effort at the DoD.

Continue Reading The DoD Cyber Workforce Strategy: Deploying an Agile, Capable, and Ready Cyber Workforce

Saudi Arabia and the Future of Money

Once again, like the ongoing Water Wars in France, recent geopolitical maneuvers read like a lost chapter from the OODA Loop Urtext: Kim Stanley Robinson’s near-future science fiction masterpiece, The Ministry of the Future (TMoF). Recent reporting from Bitcoin.com and The Wall Street Journal on Saudi Arabia’s movement away from the U.S. dollar is an “origins story”, which makes the speculative fiction in TMoF read even more as a deeply accurate non-fiction complete with investigative reporting from the future.

Continue Reading Saudi Arabia and the Future of Money

[Intellectual Property and Inventorship] + AI

The United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO), Department of Commerce, recently released a Request for Comments Regarding Artificial Intelligence and Inventorship.  As there are many inventors amongst us, as well as the role IP plays in a start-up exit or M&A and for governance and the boardroom, we are taking a look at the types of questions the Department of Commerce and the USPTO are asking about how [Intellectual Property and Inventorship] + AI = the future of [exponential] innovation.

Continue Reading [Intellectual Property and Inventorship] + AI

The Disintermediation and/or Self-cannibalization of the Defense Industrial Base

Exponential Organizations’ (ExOs), platforms, ecosystems, and sources of new value creation are based on the disintermediation (innovation that undermines established or incumbent structures) of a market, organization, or industry sector. A strategic suggestion to organizations if they are experiencing disintermediation is to aggressively self-cannibalize, with ecosystems and platforms as the new value creation and capture architectures of a new business model (or – to start – a standalone, but scalable business unit). Is the United States government, specifically the Department of Defense (DoD), experiencing disintermediation? And, if so, is it prepared for the future of exponential innovation?

Continue Reading The Disintermediation and/or Self-cannibalization of the Defense Industrial Base

Exponential Innovation and Building the Bioeconomy of the Future

The Opportunities for Advantage Series of posts will continue this year. Designed to explore how exponential disruption and innovation require organizations to focus efforts to gain advantage, in a recent review of the series we found that there were patterns and groupings which deserved to be highlighted. To start: the opportunities for advantage created by the exponential disruption of the industrial base (including the defense industrial base) coupled with exponential biotechnology innovation to build the bioeconomy of the future. The following is a primer on the potential of such an effort  – including the challenges, threats, risks, and opportunities ahead for your organization in this technology and business ecosystem of the future.

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Cybersecurity Whack-a-Mole In the Boardroom

The growing use and reliance on complex digital business systems is exacerbating cyber-risk, a systemic risk to your business, one which can result in serious, perhaps even existential damage. The interactions of information and technology have evolved from segmented IT functions into the central nervous systems controlling the most vital assets and systems of your business. Cyber-risk threatens these systems. Boards realize this is a major problem but are challenged by its enormity and complexity to find a path to better governance. Instead, they often retreat to a false sense of security offered by a “check-the-box” solution. However, the “whack-a-mole” feeling soon returns and persists-the feeling that more should be done. But how to do it?

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NIST Makes Available the Voluntary Artificial Intelligence Risk Management Framework (AI RMF 1.0) and the AI RMF Playbook

The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has released the Artificial Intelligence Risk Management Framework (AI RMF 1.0), a guidance document for voluntary use by organizations designing, developing, deploying, or using AI systems to help manage the many risks of AI technologies.   The AI RMF was produced in close collaboration with the private and public sectors. NIST has also released the AI RMF Playbook, which suggests ways to navigate and use the AI RMF to incorporate trustworthiness considerations into the design, development, deployment and use of AI systems – including suggested actions, references, and documentation guidance to achieve the outcomes for the four functions in the AI RMF: Govern, Map, Measure, and Manage.

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Review of Boyd: The Fighter Pilot Who Changed the Art of War

“Boyd: The Fighter Pilot Who Changed the Art of War,” is a captivating and informative biography of Colonel John Boyd, a brilliant and innovative military strategist who made a significant impact on modern warfare. A brilliant jet fighter pilot, forward-thinking academic, and a creative military strategist, he was a talented but wildly eccentric individual. Boyd was a leading figure in the post-Vietnam War military reform movement, the author of the first manual on jet aerial combat, the primary designer of the F-15 and the F-16 jet fighters, and the architect of the wildly successful American military strategy in the Persian Gulf War, among other accomplishments. Robert Coram does a fantastic job of bringing Boyd’s complex and multifaceted personality to life, highlighting his brilliant mind, his fierce determination, and his unwavering commitment to his principles. The book delves into Boyd’s unconventional approach to military strategy, which emphasized speed, agility, and adaptability over brute force, and how he used his ideas to revolutionize the way the United States military fights wars.

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Review of On Grand Strategy by John L. Gaddis

In “On Grand Strategy,” Yale historian John Lewis Gaddis compiles a lifetime’s worth of reflection on what makes a statesman successful or unsuccessful. Similar to Edward Mead Earle’s “Makers of Modern Strategy”, it investigates the components of knowledge, temperament, and bravery that produce great leaders and resilient empires. The advantage of Mr. Gaddis’ book over its illustrious predecessor is that it is a more welcoming narrative which makes it far simpler for the reader to understand strategic teachings that spanned globally for millennia. However, “On Grand Strategy” does not convey the breadth of classical strategic historical analysis as comprehensively as previous works in the canon of writings on the history of strategy and strategic thinking.

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Time to Reconsider How State Actors are Defined in Cyberspace

Since the late 1990s, geopolitics have increasingly become a driver of hostilities between nation states and their non-state sympathizers.  Hostile cyber attacks have been influential in expressing one state’s views against another during periods of political tensions, as they have served as a signaling agent without crossing a threshold of destruction that could warrant more aggressive responses.  States have also used proxies – non-state entities closely aligned to their government benefactors – in this capacity as well, as they typically possess cyber capabilities, demonstrate unwavering loyalty, and provide at least one level of removal separating the government from proxy activities.  One thing has become abundantly clear: proxies provide another resource for states, and as such, states maintain some semblance of control over them, whether via direct order, through intelligence or military cut-outs, or allowing them to promulgate without restriction or interference.

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Top 10 News Briefs of 2022

The following list is comprised of the Top 10 OODA Loop News Briefs of 2022 as determined by the number of page views for each article.  If you value our analysis, please consider a subscription (click here). One hundred percent of the subscription goes towards the curation of our popular Daily Intelligence Report and original topical analysis.

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Top 10 Sensemaking and Executive Guide Pages of 2022

It has been another interesting and dynamic year on the security and intelligence front and OODA Loop was there to cover it all.  The following list is comprised of the Top 10 Sensemaking and Member Resources Pages of 2022 as determined by the number of page views for each page.  We also included posts that are evergreen and still popular, achieving a “Top 10” number of views, but were not published this year, as well as a couple that did not make the top ten but were very topical sensemaking tools, tactical guides (i.e. the war in Ukraine and cybersecurity risk awareness) and reports which remain prescient and applicable.

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Back To The Basics Of Corporate Intelligence: A Practitioner’s View

Optimizing intelligence processes to meet the needs of corporate decision-makers is a continuous challenge. Getting intelligence functions right can lead to observations on the business environment and analysis that will help drive the best decisions and actions. Getting intelligence functions wrong can waste money and time, and, at worse, put the company at risk by enabling bad decisions and the wrong actions.

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‘Normality Will Not Return’: OODA Network Member Brian Jenkins on Plagues and Their Aftermath

More than two-and-a-half years after COVID-19 first appeared, the world seems to have unofficially declared the pandemic over and done In his new book, Plagues and Their Aftermath: How Societies Recover from Pandemics, terrorism expert and senior adviser to the president of the RAND Corporation Brian Michael Jenkins takes a look at past plagues—like the Black Death, which killed half the population of Europe, and the 1918 pandemic, which killed between 50 and 100 million people—to try to understand the future. In this adaptation from his book, Jenkins discusses how post-pandemic life will be marked by more than just long-lasting health concerns.

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Top 10 Security, Technology, and Business Books of 2022

Welcome to the 2022 edition of my top 10 books of the year list. This year, I’ve decided to split the fiction books into an additional category and given you two bonus books for your consideration written by close friends of mine.  With the launch of the Hack Factory this year, I’ve been very focused on business, building technologies, and investing style books. As a result, that is a major thematic for this year.  Noticeably absent are books on Blockchain/Cryptocurrencies as that industry is in the middle of a Creative Destruction phase, and I continue to view cybersecurity as being stuck in a Cyber Winter.

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November OODA Network Member Meeting Features Brian Michael Jenkins In A Discussion Of A Grave Threat to Democracy

Brian Michael Jenkins is a long term OODA Network member and friend to the community. He is a researcher, thinker and writer known for producing books which have broad impact on decision-makers in government and industry. Brian was a Green Beret who initiated one of the first terrorism research programs in the nation.  We will be reviewing one of his more recent books soon, he recently published “Plagues and Their Aftermath”, which takes a long historical look at epidemics and pandemics and extracts lessons for our post COVID world. 

Brian also recently published an essay we recommend to all our network members. The topic is so important in our view we have asked Brian to give us an overview at our 18 November member meeting. 

The topic is domestic political violence. 

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Ongoing Efforts to Combat Information Disorder and Strengthen our Cognitive Infrastructure

Last year, OODA Network Member Congressman Will Hurd was a Commissioner for the Aspen Institute’s Information Disorder Report.   Congressman Hurd will take part in a Keynote Conversation at OODAcon (which is the final event of the event to be held on Tuesday, October 18th).  In the run-up to the event next week, the following is an update on some of the research and project outcomes achieved by various global efforts working to understand and combat “information disorder” and build a strong cognitive infrastructure.

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Mergeflow CEO and OODA Network Member Florian Wolf on “Small Data” (Part 2 of 2)

In Part 1 of this interview, we checked in with Mergeflow CEO and OODA Network Member Florian Wolf about all things machine learning and small data.

In Part 2, we continue the conversation with Florian spanning a wide range of topics, including the real-life lessons of machine learning innovation, the centrality of data, problem-solving over performance as the competitive advantage while developing ML systems, leading a team, what keeps him up at night, what he is tracking and what he is excited and hopeful about in the future.

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“The Worst-Case Scenario is the Least Probable” and Other Cognitive Biases: Global Drought, Catastrophic Monsoons and Floods and “Zombie Ice”

Our editorial approach here at OODA Loop is an optimistic approach, based on the influence of ‘solutions-based’ journalism and a belief in the American “mission” writ large, including years of experience with deeply humble, remarkably talented people that make up American agencies, departments, and institutions. It is this unique worldview and perspective you will experience firsthand at our upcoming OODA Community conference,  OODAcon 2022 – The Future of Exponential Innovation & Disruption.

It is also part of our job, however to position negative metrics and trends as part of our overall sensemaking on behalf of the membership – and try to achieve something resembling a stoic, balanced stance on most information we are handling at any given time. We also use scenario planning to tell the story of the future as we are seeing it – to influence risk strategies and decision-making processes for our member organizations.

So, with that:  Are you sitting down? Because I have some bad news, along with a mental model through which to analyze its implications.

Continue Reading “The Worst-Case Scenario is the Least Probable” and Other Cognitive Biases: Global Drought, Catastrophic Monsoons and Floods and “Zombie Ice”

How Global “Perpetual Drought” Should Impact Your Foresight Strategy and Strategic Planning

As summer approaches, we return to our OODA Special Report on the business impacts of drought conditions.  Initiated by OODA CTO Bob Gourley is his June 2021 post – How Drought In The US Should Impact Your Mid To Long Range Strategic Planning   – about the unprecedented heatwave in the Pacific Northwest driven by climate change, which focused on the major weather system known as a stationary Heat Dome…making existing drought conditions even worse than they were before.

In 2022, open our aperture globally, to assess how a concern for regional “megadroughts” has now morphed into what has been called “perpetual drought” conditions globally.  We now apply a global filter to our research, analysis, and scenario planning.  Specifically, Step 2 of the scenario planning process is an effort to explore the external environment for patterns and trends since our assessment last year.

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OODA On Corporate Intelligence In The New Age

We strongly encourage every company, large or small, to set aside dedicated time to focus on ways to improve your ability to understand the nature of the significantly changed risk environment we are all operating in today, and then assess how your organizational thinking should change.

As an aid to assessing your corporate sensemaking abilities, this post summarizes OODA’s research and analysis into optimizing corporate intelligence for the modern age.

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Gradually, then suddenly, the business environment has changed

In a famous line from Hemingway’s The Sun Also Rises, a character in the story is asked how he went bankrupt. His reply: “Two ways… gradually, then suddenly.”

This line is a catchy way to articulate the way compounding interest works in finance. It is also a good description for the S-Curve that is so frequently seen in adoption of technological innovations, where growth of a technology is usually slow and boring at first, then suddenly shoots up in exponential growth. Gradually then suddenly is also an apt description of many geopolitical trends. We have all been tracking a weakening economy of China, then suddenly their GDP is in decline. We gradually saw Russia posturing for invasion of Ukraine, then suddenly the invasion few anticipated occurs.

The result of all of this is a very turbulent business environment and a need for executives to seek out situational awareness to inform operational decisions. This post provides context from the OODA C-Suite report that will help drive awareness and decision making.

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Fine Tuning Your Falsehood Detector: Time to update the models you use to screen for deception, dishonesty, corruption, fraud and falsity

This is part of a series providing insights aimed at corporate strategists seeking competitive advantage through better and more accurate decision-making. The full series is available at our special section on Decision Intelligence.  Members are also invited to discuss this topic at the OODA Member Forum. The best business leaders are good at spotting falsehoods. Some…

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Cybersecurity Investment, Due Diligence, Innovation and Growth

We continue our effort to underscore certain patterns and themes found throughout the OODAcast library of over 80 conversations with leaders and decision-makers.

In May of 2020, OODA CTO Bob Gourley had a conversation with Boston Merdian’s co-founder and partner JC Raby. JC has more than 16 years of investment banking experience in mergers and acquisitions as well as private and public financings. JC’s clients include leading Fortune 500 acquirers and middle-market growth companies across a number of industries including media and Technology (software, business services, and communications equipment) manufacturing, and consumer products, together accounting for over $9 billion in transaction value.

In July of 2020, Bob spoke with Andrew (Andy) Lustig, a partner at the high tech law firm Cooley where he focuses on private equity investments, mergers and acquisitions, and the general corporate representation of high-growth technology companies in both the commercial and government marketplace. His practice includes a wide range of industry sectors including information technology, national security, cybersecurity, data analytics, software, and telecommunications. He also represents a number of leading venture capital and private equity firms. 

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Is Your Insider Threat Risk Management Program Ripe for Innovation? Part 1

The reality is 34% of all breaches in 2018 were caused by insiders, yet less than 20% of U.S. organizations possess effective security programs to combat it. The results range from information leakage and national security breaches to workplace violence and even reputational damage. Insiders’ unintentional actions can be equally damaging. How can a serious internal commitment to the design process, driven by innovation, give this often ignored sub-sector of risk management the priority it requires within your organization? Following are a few initiatives that are thinking differently about insider threat program implementation through innovative architectures, collective intelligence, advanced analytics, and the use of publicly available information (PAI).  Community-based and partner collaborations up and down the supply chain are also a hallmark of these innovative efforts.

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