10 Jun 2022

Global Drought Conditions and Food Security: Follow the Fertilizer

These days, you never know where the next strategic metric will emerge. OODA Loop contributes to your efforts – signal tracking and sensemaking as part of your strategic foresight – essential to building out that organizational resiliency.  This information cumulatively acts as an early warning system that allows for decision-making and action that has an impact on an organization’s ability to change tactics and strategic focus. Today, the global drought conditions and the food security crisis mounting in Europe will most definitely impact the food supply chain in Europe and Africa), and our strategic signal is fertilizer.  Yes, fertilizer.  More specifically, how a global fertilizer shortage will impact crop yields, food prices, and scarcity.

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20 May 2022

How Global “Perpetual Drought” Should Impact Your Foresight Strategy and Strategic Planning

As summer approaches, we return to our OODA Special Report on the business impacts of drought conditions.  Initiated by OODA CTO Bob Gourley is his June 2021 post – How Drought In The US Should Impact Your Mid To Long Range Strategic Planning   – about the unprecedented heatwave in the Pacific Northwest driven by climate change, which focused on the major weather system known as a stationary Heat Dome…making existing drought conditions even worse than they were before.

In 2022, open our aperture globally, to assess how a concern for regional “megadroughts” has now morphed into what has been called “perpetual drought” conditions globally.  We now apply a global filter to our research, analysis, and scenario planning.  Specifically, Step 2 of the scenario planning process is an effort to explore the external environment for patterns and trends since our assessment last year.

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19 Apr 2022

World Food Program says 20 million risk starvation as Horn of Africa drought worsens

Delayed rain has extended and worsened a drought in Kenya, Somalia, and Ethiopia. The UN has warned that 20 million people are at risk of starvation this year as a result of this drought. The Horn of Africa has been on the verge of a humanitarian crisis for months as

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19 Nov 2021

UN sounds alarm on Somalia’s ‘rapidly worsening’ drought

The United Nations has warned that Somalia’s worsening drought has caused more than two million people to face sever food and water shortages. The Horn of Africa is on the verge of a fourth consecutive failed rainfall season according to the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs and the

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10 Nov 2021

NASA and High-Performance Computing Reveal Climate Impacts on Global Crops in the Next Ten Years

NASA scientists recently published a study exploring the climate impacts on global agriculture scenarios. According to the high greenhouse gas emissions scenario from the report, by 2030 climate change may have a quantifiable impact on the production of maize (corn) and wheat. Global agriculture is facing a new climate reality. And with the interconnectedness of the global food system, impacts in even one region’s breadbasket will be felt worldwide. The NASA scientists also highlight in the study that these projections and subsequent scenarios are based on a new generation of climate and crop models.

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23 Jul 2021

OODA Special Report: US Drought Requires Use Of Best Practices in Scenario Planning

This is the second in our series of special reports on mitigating the risks and improving corporate strategic planning regarding the drought in the US. The first is the OODA Special Report: How Drought In The US Should Impact Your Mid To Long Range Strategic Planning.  This report expands on the mid to long term scenario planning methodology and provides more insights into best practices in scenario planning as a strategic practice and pointers on how to get started ‘building’ your scenario.

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