As we have discussed in OODA network meetings and our reporting since the beginning of renewed Russian hostilities against Ukraine, assessing the likelihood of war was relatively easy. We listened to what Putin was saying and understood Russian history, culture and Putin’s imperial ambitions and assessed early that he had made up his mind to invade. But as soon as the war started it became much harder to project the course of events. War is the ultimate competition and surprise must be expected.
That said, we did project that as Russia’s attempt at a US style shock and awe maneuver war campaign failed they would revert back to their old style of horrendous destruction. Sadly that is exactly what happened. It was also easy to make the broad prediction that Putin may seek ways to declare a victory and seek to end hostilities with some sort of gains. Based on propaganda shifts over the last few days there are indications that Putin is seeking to shift to this approach.However, the war is still on and no one can say with any certainty what happens next. This situation calls for scenario planning.
The study of mental models can improve your ability to make decisions and improve business outcomes. This post, part of our series on Decision Intelligence, reviews the mental models we recommend all business and government decision makers master.
Retired Air Force Colonel John Boyd was an early advocate for the study of mental models in competitive environments. In 1976 he published a paper titled Destruction and Creation which explored how to develop mental models for dynamic/chaotic environments. His later articulation of the OODA Loop flowed from this pioneering work on mental models.
What follows is a review of the top models we recommend modern leaders master.
The recent breach of the industry-standard, cloud-based single sign-on (SSO) authentification service provider Okta is a consequential cyber incident. Following is a timeline of the Okta Breach and the recent Lapsus$ ransomware rampage, concluding with technical guidance and recommendations gleaned from a handful of ongoing technical investigations underway by law enforcement, Okta, Microsoft, Nvidia and cybersecurity researchers worldwide.
A consolidated table of Russian losses by OODA Network Member Christ Flaherty, along with data from alternate sources for comparative analysis.
We typically provide research and analysis utilizing the OODA Loop as a positive tool for decision intelligence and risk awareness. Usually, this takes the form of advice and recommendations on how to leverage the OODA Loop for business strategy. Here, OODA Network Member Chris Flaherty takes another angle – that of interventions on and disruptions of an adversary’s information ecosystem – so as to disrupt the clarity, management, and effectiveness of an adversary’s OODA Loop during the fog of war (impacting disinformation campaigns and propaganda).
Deputy National Security Adviser for Cyber and Emerging Technology Anne Neuberger took to the podium yesterday to announce that U.S. Intelligence continues to investigate the Feb 24th hack of a European satellite company, Viasat, which provides internet connectivity to Europe, including the Ukrainian government and military. In light of this attack, on March 17th the U.S. Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) issued a joint statement which warned of the “possible threats to U.S. and international satellite communication (SATCOM) networks.”
Within two months, Russia will run out of data storage capabilities (for their government and public sector information technology operations) after Western IT service providers pulled their cloud computing capabilities out of the country.
The February 2022 OODA Network Member Meeting: Topics Included Crypto Innovation, Security and Regulation and the Lead Up to Putin’s War
To help members optimize opportunities and reduce risk, OODA hosts a monthly video call to discuss items of common interest to our membership. These highly collaborative sessions are always a great way for our members to meet and interact with each other while talking about topics like global risks, emerging technologies, cybersecurity, and current or future events impacting their organizations. We also use these sessions to help better focus our research and better understand member needs.
Moody’s Analytics economist Tim Uy wrote in a recent report: “The greatest risk facing global supply chains has shifted from the pandemic to the Russia-Ukraine military conflict and the geopolitical and economic uncertainties it has created.” Our recent “Warning for the U.S. Chip Industry: Russian Retaliation Could Hit Supply of Key Materials” provided a breakdown of the Russian and Ukraine-source material critical to the semiconductor manufacturing process (Neon, Palladium, etc.). In February, The US Geological Survey released the 2022 List of Critical Minerals. Palladium and Scandium are included in the USGS list.
We are witnessing the world’s first war where open source intelligence is providing more actionable insights than classified sources. Here are views on what this shift means for governments, businesses, NGOs and Citizens.