12 Mar 2022

What The C-Suite Needs To Know About The Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community

Every year the US intelligence community produces a succinct report designed to provide a high level overview of threats. This is issued to coincide with testimony by the Director of National Intelligence and the biggest agencies of the IC, CIA, DIA, NSA and FBI.

This year’s report follows a theme that the world is growing in complexity and uncertainty. This complexity and uncertainty occurs in an interconnected world where great power competition is clearly underway.

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11 Mar 2022

Leadership, Management, Decisionmaking and Intelligence

We continue our effort to underscore certain patterns and themes found throughout the OODAcast library of over 80 conversations with leaders and decision-makers, on topics such as leadership, empowering a team, finding the right people, clear decision-making while operating in a low information environment, the qualities and best practices of a true leader,  the future of intelligence, the future of cyber threats and cyber espionage and strategic action.

In October of 2020, Bob Gourley had a conversation with Rear Admiral Paul Becker, USN (Retired).  This conversation with Admiral Becker covers his Navy career, leadership, management, decisionmaking, intelligence, and the future of the intelligence community.

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10 Mar 2022

The Putin Profile: Takeaways from our Interview with a CIA, FBI, and Military Psychologist

Today we recorded an OODAcast with long time colleague Dr. Scott Shumate who has 33 years of national security experience with both the Central Intelligence Agency as an undercover operations officer and the Department of Defense with the Counterintelligence Field Activity as a Senior Executive level director of Behavioral Science support to the departments investigative and counterintelligence units.

Here are the major takeaways from the interview to inform your perspective.

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10 Mar 2022

Open-Source Intelligence Resources: The UNHRC Operational Data Portal – Ukrainian Refugees

Human Rights Council is an inter-governmental body within the United Nations system responsible for strengthening the promotion and protection of human rights around the globe and for addressing situations of human rights violations and making recommendations on them. The Operational Data Portal (ODP) was created in 2011 to enable UNHCR’s institutional responsibility to provide any information and data-sharing platform to facilitate the coordination of refugee emergencies.

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09 Mar 2022

Intelligence Gathering Tools and Analysis, Strategic Thinking and Uncertainty

We continue our effort to underscore certain patterns and themes found throughout the OODAcast library of over 80 conversations with leaders and decision-makers, on topics such as leadership, empowering a team, finding the right people, clear decision-making while operating in a low information environment, the qualities and best practices of a true leader,  the future of intelligence, the future of cyber threats and cyber espionage and strategic action.

In May of 2020, OODA CTO Bob Gourley had an OODAcast conversation with Carmen Medina, who served 32 years in senior positions at the Central Intelligence Agency, most of which focused on one of the hardest tasks in the community, that of analysis. Bob and Carmen discuss information-gathering and intelligence tools, uncertainty, and decision-making.  The conversation is also interesting as a time capsule from the May 2020 timeframe of the pandemic:  before the vaccine, before variant surges, before the 900,000 plus death toll.  It is interesting to read now  – with the knowledge of how the uncertainty at the time Bob and Carmen spoke has now played out.

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08 Mar 2022

Open-Source Intelligence Resources: Bellingcat and the Russia-Ukraine Monitor Map

Bellingcat (an innovative open-source investigative journalism network and business model) has been in our research arsenal for a while  – ripe for a post to introduce our readers to their tools, investigations, and innovative approach to networked journalism. 

The war in Europe has now put Bellingcat in the spotlight, based on the growing popularity of their crowdsourced mapping and monitoring efforts.

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08 Mar 2022

Ukraine-Russia War Threat to Space Security Update

The space security and space war aspects of the current Russian invasion of Ukraine have manifested in various ways since the beginning of the war. However, it was preceded by months of build-up, as massive military vehicle parks were created at various places along the Russian and Belarusian borders – all viewed from space.

The following is an overview list of the various issues that have arisen since the inception of the conflict.

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02 Mar 2022

Full Log4Shell Attack Chain-Enabled Conti Ransomware Gang Supports Russia; Ukrainian Gang Member Retaliates

In early February, a cybercrime crackdown by Russian authorities included the arrest of members of the REvil gang. Overall, follow-up reports suggested a growing sentiment that the Russian authorities were out to optimize the appeasement value to the U.S. of the arrests. We later suggested that the REvil Gang arrest was possibly a false flag operation. Our suggested scenario at the time:  The Russians gave up the REvil Gang while still planning to lean on non-state actors for the plausible deniability of cyberwar operations. Our latter assumption has proven true.  A few days ago, the Conti Gang announced their support for the Russian Government.

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02 Mar 2022

The 2022 Russian Invasion and Ukraine Defence: A Black Day Scenario

A ‘Black Day’ in European military culture is historically associated with a day on which the Army suffers its worse number of casualties. In the war so far, public information at the time of this analysis has identified that Russian military losses have been substantial.  Substantial losses during an invasion are to be expected: defenders classically have the advantage of setting up continuous killing grounds that an advancing force is compelled to cross. The defender is then forced to shift from maintaining a border to different modes of operations. OODA Loop Network Member Chris Flaherty provides an expert analysis.

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25 Feb 2022

Anonymous Wages War on Russia

Back in December, we provided coverage and analysis of the first meeting of the Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Security Administration (CISA) Advisory Committee.  We noted then that CISA Director Jen Easterly and Def Con Founder Jeff Moss (a CISA Advisory Committee Member) at the meeting were less concerned with collaboration with the business community and, instead, prioritized messaging and outreach to the hacker and research community.

The Russian Invasion of Ukraine has now changed everything in this calculus of how best to “ignite” and perform outreach to the community.  Here’s how.

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