This OODA Network Member update provides insights into the status of US Space Policy, Cyber Threats in Space and methods of mitigating risk.

In light of our recent recommendations regarding the CSET China AI Watchboard and the potential of public/private policy research collaborations within the policy research community in general, we found this recent successful public-private partnership in the space policy domain really interesting and worth a look: The Satellite Dashboard is a collaboration between the Secure World Foundation (SWF), the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), and the Department of Aerospace Engineering and Engineering Mechanics at the University of Texas at Austin.

On November 3, 2022, at the National Press Club in Washington D.C., Federal Communications Commission Chairwoman Jessica Rosenworcel announced a plan to reorganize the agency to better support the needs of the growing satellite industry, promote long-term technical capacity at the FCC, and navigate 21st-century global communications policy.

Additive manufacturing is an exponential technology that will disrupt many industry verticals, including the future of the commercial space industry.  Many of the component parts used to build additive manufacturing systems are examples of the convergence of a variety of technologies that are experiencing exponential growth curves which then contribute to the overall exponential speed and scale of the development of the larger systems and platforms of which they are a part.

In this, our latest post in the  OODA Loop Speculative Design series, explore with us Relativity Space’s Stargate 4th Generation – “The largest active metal 3D printing system in the world – now operating at the company’s Wormhole Long Beach facility.”  The company highlights the role of iterative design in all of its platforms – from the 3D printer technology platform to the innovative horizontal printing assemblage techniques and the design of its Wormhole factory.

Space debris has been a topic of conversation since a 2021 OODA Network member monthly conversation, when Leo Labs, a global, ground-based radar to track space junk business model was discussed in the context of the Russian anti-satellite [ASAT] test which broke up their Cosmos 1408 satellite, resulting in an in orbit, debris-generating event that put the International Space Station at risk.

This post is an update on recent space debris events and headlines and ongoing research efforts and U.S.-based policy proposals.

This case study is a lot more “experimental/operational” than previous posts in our ongoing Speculative Design series – with the full resources of the U.S. Army Space and Missile Defense Command (SMDC) “in the midst of evaluating the results of experimental satellite tech designed to directly warn soldiers on the ground when GPS signals have been disrupted or compromised.”  Nothing propels speculative design ideas to what the Department of Energy calls “Earthshots”  (or what is commonly known as a strategic “moonshot”) faster than the expertise and resources of a USG department or military branch.

We join the U.S. Army and SMDC as they ponder the operational and experimental iterative feedback loops of the  ‘Lonestar’ GPS interference warning system.

Our recent coverage of commercial space has included DoD efforts to leverage the commercial space internet as “future military operations will be multi-domain and will be conducted with unprecedented speed.”  Experimental DoD efforts are focused on building a “robust systems architecture ecosystem with the growth of exponential technologies like AI in mind”, which will be crucial to leveraging space-based commercial internet capabilities. The Defense Intelligence Agency also recently updated the Challenges to Security in Space 2022. In light of the cyber attacks on the Ukrainian satellite system (which figured prominently in the early stages of the Ukraine conflict) we also highlighted Space Security and Offensive and Defensive Counterspace Capabilities.   

Clearly, space continues to be an active, contested space, with a hybrid of governmental and commercial activities already in play.  We now turn to NASA, Chinese and commercial development efforts – and the future role of laser satellite links in the space communications infrastructure.

According to the 2022 DIA Challenges to Security in Space report, “As China’s and Russia’s space and counterspace capabilities increase, both nations are integrating space scenarios into their military exercises…the expansion of Chinese and Russian space and counterspace weapons combined with the general rise of other foreign space capabilities is driving many nations to formalize their space policies to better position themselves to secure the space domain and facilitate their own space services.” A sophisticated report on the issues of Space Security was released this month:  the Fifth Annual Space Threat Assessment 2022 from the Center for Strategic and International Studies  – which expands on foundational thinking on defensive and offensive counterspace capabilities.

In 2019, the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) published the first Challenges to Security in Space “to address the main threats to the array of U.S. space capabilities, and examine space and counterspace strategies and systems pursued primarily by China and Russia and, to a lesser extent, by North Korea and Iran.” DIA has followed up the inaugural version of the report with the recently published Challenges to Security in Space 2022. This second edition expands on the insights of the first publication and provides an “unclassified overview of the threats to U.S. space capabilities, particularly from China and Russia, as those threats continue to expand.”

Deputy National Security Adviser for Cyber and Emerging Technology Anne Neuberger took to the podium yesterday to announce that U.S. Intelligence continues to investigate the Feb 24th hack of a European satellite company, Viasat, which provides internet connectivity to Europe, including the Ukrainian government and military. In light of this attack, on March 17th the U.S. Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) issued a joint statement which warned of the “possible threats to U.S. and international satellite communication (SATCOM) networks.”