15 Dec 2016

Terrorists want to destroy our cities. We can’t let them

“Veteran police officer John Sullivan coined the term ‘urban siege’ in 2009 in the wake of the Mumbai attacks. The terrorists in India were highly organized and received guidance and real-time logistical support from offsite handlers in Pakistan. They were also hyper-connected: operatives were equipped with smartphones and used social media to coordinate operations and disrupt efforts to slow them down. To Sullivan, ‘urban siege is a metaphor for complex, integrated tactics that disrupt urban life and spread fear … including swarming attacks with multiple, simultaneous and serial targets and symbolic venues … that combine armed assault with media manipulation.’” Source: Terrorists want to destroy our cities. We can’t let them | World Economic Forum

Read More
01 Feb 2014

NIMS Intelligence/Investigations Function Guidance and Field Operations Guide

The National Incident Management System (NIMS) represents a core set of doctrine, concepts, principles, terminology, and organizational processes that enables effective, efficient, and collaborative incident management. The Incident Command System (ICS), as a component of NIMS, establishes a consistent operational framework that enables government, private sector, and nongovernmental organizations to work together to manage incidents, regardless of cause, size, location, or complexity. This consistency provides the foundation for the use of ICS for all incidents, ranging from daily occurrences to incidents requiring a coordinated Federal response. Many domestic incidents, such as natural disasters or industrial accidents, have an obvious cause and origin. However, other domestic incidents, such as large-scale fires, public health emergencies, explosions, transportation incidents (e.g., train derailments, airplane crashes, bridge collapses), active shooters, terrorist attacks, or other incidents causing mass injuries or fatalities, require an intelligence or investigative component to determine the cause and origin of the incident and/or support incident/disaster operations. The scalability and flexibility of NIMS allows the Intelligence/Investigations (I/I) Function to be seamlessly integrated with the other functions of ICS. The I/I Function within ICS provides a framework that allows for the integration of intelligence and information collection, analysis, and sharing, as well as investigations that identify the cause and origin of an incident regardless of source. If the incident is determined to be a criminal event, the I/I Function leads to the identification, apprehension, and prosecution of the perpetrator. The I/I Function can be used for planned events as well as incidents. This document includes guidance on how various disciplines can use and integrate the I/I Function while adhering to NIMS concepts and principles. It includes information intended for the NIMS practitioner (including the Incident Commander/Unified Command [IC/UC]) that assists in the placement of the I/I Function within the command structure; provides guidance that may be used while implementing the I/I Function; and has an accompanying Intelligence/ Investigations Function Field Operations Guide (I/I FFOG). While this document provides an example of the I/I Function at the Section level, the IC/UC has the final determination of the scope and placement of the I/I Function within the command structure. The guidance provided in this document is applicable for both domestic incidents that use conventional unclassified information (e.g., open source information, criminal histories, medical records, or educational records)1 and terrorism incidents where information is often classified and requires the use of national intelligence capabilities. NATIONAL INCIDENT MANAGEMENT SYSTEM Intelligence/Investigations Function Guidance and Field Operations Guide

Read More
02 Apr 2012

Government plans web and email surveillance to combat crime and terrorism

“Web browsing habits, email conversations and phone calls will be monitored by the government under new legislation set to be unveiled in May. The government is planning to announce the legislation in the Queen’s Speech in May, with Home Office confirming it believes such steps are necessary to tackle criminality and terrorism.” (Source: Government plans web and email surveillance to combat crime and terrorism – IT News from V3.co.uk.)

Read More
13 Mar 2011

Organized Crime and Terrorist Activity in Mexico, 1999-2002

This study is based on open source research into the scope of organized crime and terrorist activity in the Republic of Mexico during the period 1999 to 2002, and the extent of cooperation and possible overlap between criminal and terrorist activity in that country. The analyst examined those organized crime syndicates that direct their criminal activities at the United States, namely Mexican narcotics trafficking and human smuggling networks, as well as a range of smaller organizations that specialize in trans-border crime. The presence in Mexico of transnational criminal organizations, such as Russian and Asian organized crime, was also examined. In order to assess the extent of terrorist activity in Mexico, several of the country’s domestic guerrilla groups, as well as foreign terrorist organizations believed to have a presence in Mexico, are described. The report extensively cites from Spanish-language print media sources that contain coverage of criminal and terrorist organizations and their activities in Mexico. Organized Crime and Terrorist Activity in Mexico, 1999-2002

Read More
08 Feb 2011

Intelligence Co-production and Transaction Analysis for Counterterrorism and Counter-netwar

Combatting networked threats requires new approaches to producing intelligence to support a range of operations. Contemporary networked threats include terrorism and insurgency. This paper describes the need for a distributed global network for the co-production of intelligence. It introduces the concept of Intelligence Preparation for Operations (IPO) and describes a transaction analysis model suited to co-production of intelligence for counterterrorism, counterinsurgency and counter-netwar. Intelligence Co-production and Transaction Analysis for Counterterrorism and Counter-netwar

Read More
13 Oct 2010

Intelligence-led Mitigation

This paper explores methods for capitalizing on existing law enforcement intelligence capabilities to provide intelligence support to decision makers for a full spectrum of public safety and emergency service operations. Intelligence-led mitigation is a management philosophy and business process to proactively guide strategic, operational, and tactical decisions for mitigating the effects of intentional, accidental, and natural incidents. There is currently a gap in the intelligence products needed by public safety and emergency service organizations to support their resource decisions, and the quantity and quality of intelligence products they are receiving. This breach between producer and consumer exists across the country and at all levels of government. The intelligence-led mitigation model was designed to demonstrate how the existing principles and processes of intelligence-led policing can be applied to a broader set of incidents, incident phases, and stakeholders in order to effectively and efficiently fill this critical intelligence gap. Read the Report

Read More
22 Dec 2008

Criminal Netwarriors in Mexico’s Drug Wars

Mexico is imploding in a series of interlocking ‘criminal insurgencies’ culminating in a virtual civil war. Kidnappings, assassinations, beheadings, shoot-outs:  Mexico is gripped by combat between drug cartels, gangs and the police. Mexican President Felipe Calderon starkly states: “It’s a War.” The Drug War in Mexico has killed 6,836 people since January 2007. This year drug-related murders have more than doubled to nearly 5,400.  The Mexican state is fighting for its survival with 45,000 troops and 5,000 Federal police deployed to 18 states.  Barbarization and indiscriminate violence are daily occurrences.  The narcocartel—gang nexus is a serious security threat that has the potential to eclipse global terrorism as a threat to the United States.  Mexico is embroiled in a vicious drug war and gangs threaten states throughout Latin America, but the average viewer of cable TV would never know.  Other issues take precedence. This hidden national security threat poses an enormous challenge to the new administration.   While the public and media are occupied with wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the potential conflict with Iran, the downward spiral in Pakistan, and a global economic meltdown, a new rapidly evolving threat—narcocartels and gangs—has been developing in Mexico and Latin America. Mexico is gripped by a set of inter-locking, networked criminal insurgencies.  Daily mayhem, kidnappings, assassinations of police and government officials, beheadings and shoot-outs are the result of extreme combat between drug cartels, gangs, and the police.  The cartels vying for domination of the lucrative drug trade are seeking both market dominance and freedom from government interference.  Tijuana, Ciudad Juarez, and other border towns are racked with violence.  Mexico City itself is not immune.  An infusion of police and military remains stymied as corrupt officials choose to side with the cartels. The drug mafias have abandoned subtle co-option of the government to embrace active violence to secure safe havens to ply their trade.  This de facto ‘criminal insurgency’ threatens the stability of the Mexican state, and already has started to reverberate north of the Rio Grande in the US.   As the Los Angeles Times has reported, few regions in the US are immune to the wake of Mexican drug trafficking organizations in these “Borderless drug wars;” 195 US cities have a Mexican cartel presence. Not satisfied with their feudal outposts in the Mexican interior and along the US-Mexico frontier, the cartels are also starting to migrate southward throughout Central America, and even to the Southern Cone, setting up business in Argentina, and across the South Atlantic to Africa. The cartels’ links reach beyond the Americas. For example, “Drug Cartels Move Beyond Borders“ at the Americas Society/Council of the Americas describes the expanding reach of Mexican cartels. This influence extends from the highest levels of Mexican government down to local police. But the drug war’s impact has also been felt well beyond Mexico, extending across the Americas to as far away as Australia. Mexican cartel connections with Italy’s ‘Ndrangheta organized criminal clan, allow drugs to be shipped from Colombia through Mexico to the US and on to Italy. From there, the drugs can be distributed throughout Europe. The 2009 National Threat Assessment published by the National Drug Intelligence Center identifies Mexican drug-trafficking organizations as “the greatest organized crime threat to the United States” based on these developments.   Money fuels global expansion, and transnational organized crime has learned it can thrive in the face of governmental crisis. The cartels are joined by a variety of gangs in the quest to dominate the global criminal opportunity space.  Third generation gangs—that is, gangs like Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13) that have transcended operating on localized turf with a simple market

Read More
04 Apr 2008

Analytical Approaches for Sensing Novel and Emerging Threats

We are proud to feature this new paper by John Sullivan: Security and public safety agencies must address a range of current and emerging  threats. These range from conflicts, strategic crime, terrorism, disease and natural hazards, as well as the confluence of any or all occurring at a given point in time. A range of intelligence disciplines and agencies are needed to address these threats and various phases of operations (i.e., pre-, trans-, and post-event). Intelligence fusion or the production of intelligence to anticipate and understand these complex threats is essential. This paper will provide an overview of the Transaction Analysis Model, Transaction Analysis Cycle, and Intelligence Preparation for Operations as ways to scan the horizon for indicators, monitor evolving threat potentials (i.e., alternative hypotheses), and forecast risk related to novel and emerging threats. Warning intelligence, strategic foresight, operational net assessment, and the co- production of intelligence for interdisciplinary response will also be discussed.   Analytical Approaches for Sensing Novel and Emerging Threats (PDF Document)

Read More
01 Jul 2006

Developing a Group Strategic Threat and Modus Operandi Profile Analytical Framework

This paper will outline the conceptual contours of developing a Group Strategic Threat and Modus Operandi Profile (GSTMOP) Analytical Framework as an element of John P. Sullivan’s IPO and Transaction Analysis Cycle counterterrorism intelligence frameworks. It will examine the constellations of group variables such as group psychologies, group behaviors and structures, ideology, available weaponry and materiel toward extrapolating how they directly influence group strategic targeting approaches, targeting preferences, and attack modus operandi particular to individual groups. Finally, it will examine terrorist psychology and group behavior dynamics from a networked counterterrorism operational framework. Developing a Group Strategic Threat and Modus Operandi Profile Analytical Framework

Read More