ArchiveOODA OriginalSecurity and Resiliency

Agriculture and Cyber Risk are a New Driving Force and Critical Uncertainty

A new research vector has emerged in the last couple of months.  “New” in the sense that the topic was not mentioned in our 2022 year-end reviews in December or in the  OODA Almanac 2022.

The new research is the “praxis”  (or intersection) of agriculture and cyber risk based on the following nascent driving force and critical uncertainty:  Ukraine is a crucial breadbasket in the global food system. The war is impacting the entire agriculture supply chain and value chain in Ukraine and Russia.  Ukraine not only provides wheat and other grains to Europe but to parts of Asia and Africa.  Broad global food shortages are forecast – and may have a duration of years (not days, weeks, or months):

“By invading Ukraine, Vladimir Putin will destroy the lives of people far from the battlefield—and on a scale, even he may regret. The war is battering a global food system weakened by Covid-19climate change, and an energy shock. Ukraine’s exports of grain and oilseeds have mostly stopped and Russia’s are threatened. Together, the two countries supply 12% of traded calories. Wheat prices, up 53% since the start of the year, jumped a further 6% on May 16th, after India said it would suspend exports because of an alarming heatwave.

The widely accepted idea of a cost-of-living crisis does not begin to capture the gravity of what may lie ahead. António Guterres, the UN secretary-general, warned on May 18th that the coming months threaten “the spectre of a global food shortage” that could last for years. The high cost of staple foods has already raised the number of people who cannot be sure of getting enough to eat by 440m, to 1.6bn. Nearly 250m are on the brink of famine. If, as is likely, the war drags on and supplies from Russia and Ukraine are limited, hundreds of millions more people could fall into poverty. Political unrest will spread, children will be stunted and people will starve.

“Mr. Putin must not use food as a weapon. Shortages are not the inevitable outcome of the war. World leaders should see hunger as a global problem urgently requiring a global solution.”  (1)

It is unlikely Putin will not use the advantages gained by the crippled global food system.  The brutality of the war speaks to the fact that Putin and the Russians are now devoid of any moral or ethical compass to apply to the failure of the food system.  There is also the fact that the Russians have a full strategic plan in the Artic as landmasses reveal themselves due to the melting of glaciers.

To continue reading please consider joining as either a subscriber or full member to support our continued research and analysis. For more on benefits of membership see below.

Want more insight? Log in for the full report

Already a member?  Sign in to your account.

Become A Member

OODA Loop provides actionable intelligence, analysis, and insight on global security, technology, and business issues. Our members are global leaders, technologists, and intelligence and security professionals looking to inform their decision making process to understand and navigate global risks and opportunities.

You can chose to be an OODA Loop Subscriber or an OODA Network Member. Subscribers get access to all site content, while Members get all site content plus additional Member benefits such as participation in our Monthly meetings, exclusive OODA Unlocked Discounts, discounted training and conference attendance, job opportunities, our Weekly Research Report, and other great benefits. Join Here.

Related Reading:

Explore OODA Research and Analysis

Use OODA Loop to improve your decision making in any competitive endeavor. Explore OODA Loop

Decision Intelligence

The greatest determinant of your success will be the quality of your decisions. We examine frameworks for understanding and reducing risk while enabling opportunities. Topics include Black Swans, Gray Rhinos, Foresight, Strategy, Stratigames, Business Intelligence and Intelligent Enterprises. Leadership in the modern age is also a key topic in this domain. Explore Decision Intelligence

Disruptive/Exponential Technology

We track the rapidly changing world of technology with a focus on what leaders need to know to improve decision-making. The future of tech is being created now and we provide insights that enable optimized action based on the future of tech. We provide deep insights into Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, Cloud Computing, Quantum Computing, Security Technology, Space Technology. Explore Disruptive/Exponential Tech

Security and Resiliency

Security and resiliency topics include geopolitical and cyber risk, cyber conflict, cyber diplomacy, cybersecurity, nation state conflict, non-nation state conflict, global health, international crime, supply chain and terrorism. Explore Security and Resiliency

Community

The OODA community includes a broad group of decision-makers, analysts, entrepreneurs, government leaders and tech creators. Interact with and learn from your peers via online monthly meetings, OODA Salons, the OODAcast, in-person conferences and an online forum. For the most sensitive discussions interact with executive leaders via a closed Wickr channel. The community also has access to a member only video library. Explore The OODA Community

Daniel Pereira

Daniel Pereira

Daniel Pereira is research director at OODA. He is a foresight strategist, creative technologist, and an information communication technology (ICT) and digital media researcher with 20+ years of experience directing public/private partnerships and strategic innovation initiatives.