Agriculture and Cyber Risk are a New Driving Force and Critical Uncertainty
The new research is the “praxis” (or intersection) of agriculture and cyber risk based on the following nascent driving force and critical uncertainty: Ukraine is a crucial breadbasket in the global food system. The war is impacting the entire agriculture supply chain and value chain in Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine not only provides wheat and other grains to Europe but to parts of Asia and Africa. Broad global food shortages are forecast – and may have a duration of years (not days, weeks, or months):
“By invading Ukraine, Vladimir Putin will destroy the lives of people far from the battlefield—and on a scale, even he may regret. The war is battering a global food system weakened by Covid-19, climate change, and an energy shock. Ukraine’s exports of grain and oilseeds have mostly stopped and Russia’s are threatened. Together, the two countries supply 12% of traded calories. Wheat prices, up 53% since the start of the year, jumped a further 6% on May 16th, after India said it would suspend exports because of an alarming heatwave.
The widely accepted idea of a cost-of-living crisis does not begin to capture the gravity of what may lie ahead. António Guterres, the UN secretary-general, warned on May 18th that the coming months threaten “the spectre of a global food shortage” that could last for years. The high cost of staple foods has already raised the number of people who cannot be sure of getting enough to eat by 440m, to 1.6bn. Nearly 250m are on the brink of famine. If, as is likely, the war drags on and supplies from Russia and Ukraine are limited, hundreds of millions more people could fall into poverty. Political unrest will spread, children will be stunted and people will starve.
“Mr. Putin must not use food as a weapon. Shortages are not the inevitable outcome of the war. World leaders should see hunger as a global problem urgently requiring a global solution.” (1)
It is unlikely Putin will not use the advantages gained by the crippled global food system. The brutality of the war speaks to the fact that Putin and the Russians are now devoid of any moral or ethical compass to apply to the failure of the food system. There is also the fact that the Russians have a full strategic plan in the Artic as landmasses reveal themselves due to the melting of glaciers.
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