Highlights
– Low voter turnout at June 28 Presidential elections
– Populace skeptical over effective governance in light of ongoing political turmoil
– New President will likely face pressure from powerful military presence, social and political disarray will continue in the near to medium-term
Four months after soldiers killed President Joao Bernardo Vieira, citizens of Guinea-Bissau went to the polls to elect a new leader.
Eleven candidates were contesting in the election held on June 28, 2009. The front-runners were Malam Bacai Sanha of the ruling party, PAIGC, and former presidents Henrique Rosa and Kumba Yala. Most Guineans, however, are reluctant to vote, believing that the election will not solve the country’s chief problem – the army. Guineans, along with political officials, blame the military for the past four months of political turmoil, which resulted in the deaths of multiple political officials.
Guinea-Bissau not only suffers from political unrest, but crime and social instability are also on the rise. Guineans are eager to combat a number of depressing issues, however, most lack hope in a lasting government. No president elected since the multiparty rule was restored in 1994 has completed his five-year term due to military interventions that have turned violent. Even drug traffickers, known for their cocaine smuggling into Europe, have started moving out of Guinea-Bissau in September. As one United Nation’s Representative stated, even drug traffickers “need a certain stability… they don’t need a failed state, they need a weak state.”
We believe it is unlikely that the latest elections will bring a newfound hope to the majority of Guineans. The military will continue to intervene in the nation’s political affairs, which is likely to lead to continued unrest in the near to medium-term.
Turmoil Timeline
Following Guinea-Bissau’s independence from Portugal in 1974, a series of military coups and strife ensued. The following is a timeline of historical events that have led to the country’s current political and military crisis (Source):
Sept 10, 1974 – The state is officially established after the collapse of the Portuguese dictatorship. Luis Cabral becomes president.
Nov 14, 1980 – Prime Minister Joao Bernado Vieira overthrows Cabral; military-dominated revolutionary council takes control.
Jun 7, 1998 – Failed coup attempt leads to civil war. Vieira wins military support from neighboring states. Several thousand people killed.
May 7, 1999 – Soldiers topple Vieira and he flees into exile.
Nov 28, 1999 – Koumba Yala wins presidential election after transition period.
Sept 14, 2003 – Army seizes power, pledging to restore order after repeated delays to elections. Yala forced to step down.
July 24, 2005 – Vieira returns to the presidency as winner of the second round of an election.
March 2, 2009 – Vieira killed hours after the killing of the armed forces chief of staff. National assembly speaker Raimundo Pereira is sworn in a day later as interim head of state (Previous Report).
June 5 – Three senior politicians killed by military police in foiled coup plot.
Election Promises in the Midst of Unrest
The three front-runners in the June 28 election all pledge peace and justice if awarded the presidency. However, apathy and fear kept many at home. In 35 years since independence from Portugal, the tiny nation of 1.5 million has experienced numerous coups, countercoups and a civil war, but in light of the violent death of Vieira – a national hero – many have been left shaken and deeply disenchanted.
The leading candidate, Malam Sanha, a veteran of the governing party believes all of the country’s public administration needs reforming. The military should be first on the list, as it currently takes up 25 percent of the budget in Guinea-Bissau. However, Sanha and other candidates have been careful not to single out the army in their campaigns, being well aware of the potential consequences.
Despite the election and the “promises” of a new president, Guineans will continue to suffer through social and political unrest in the near to medium-term. We believe the military will continue to pressure the government to rule in its favor in the near-term. We note that protests and demonstrations remain possible in the coming weeks, as election results are tallied.
