Highlights
– Prime Minister Tymoshenko is accused of “high treason”
– Russia has reportedly stepped up efforts to influence the domestic political situation in Ukraine
– Political chaos in Ukraine prevents a united stand against a resurgent Russia whose intentions remain unclear
On August 20, 2008 Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko accused his Prime Minister, Yulia Tymoshenko, of “high treason” for failing to speak out against Moscow during its recent conflict with Georgia and during its intensifying standoff with Ukraine.
In a statement from administration official Andri Kyslynsky, the presidency stated, “The actions of the current Prime Minister show signs of high treason and political corruption.” However, the administration has offered no public proof, but claims to be handing over materials to the country’s security establishment for detailed examination.
Many within the Ukrainian political establishment have interpreted Tymoshenko’s silence as siding with Russia, as Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili is a close ally of President Yushchenko. We expect the political situation in Ukraine to remain unstable in the near-term, as Tymoshenko and Yushchenko remain increasingly of distrustful one another and differ over the future path of Ukraine.
Russian Intervention
While President Yushchenko and his allies claim to have material indicating Prime Minister Tymoshenko is committing high treason, publicly the Ukrainian leader stated that it is her silence during the Georgia conflict that is the primary driver behind his suspicions. He also stated that Tymoshenko was seeking the Kremlin’s support ahead of a bid for Ukraine’s presidency in an election due between 2009 and 2010.
Actions taken by pro-Western President Viktor Yushchenko by showing solidarity with his Georgian counterpart and seeking alliances with the West has caused unease in Moscow. Top officials within the Ukrainian government are claiming that Russia has stepped up support for various opposition political groups in the country in an effort unseen since the 2004 presidential election.
In regards to possible Russian intervention, Kyslynsky was quoted as saying, “Today, the Russian political circles have been creating the basis for the revenge of [pro-Russian] political forces that had lost four years ago, in which something similar took place in 2004.”
Kyslynsky’s recent statement is the strongest indication so far that Russia may be attempting once again to impact Ukraine’s upcoming presidential election. In the 2004 election, Russia spent an estimated US$800 million to support pro-Moscow candidate Viktor Yanukovych, the then Prime Minister who ran against Yushchenko. According to top officials in Yushchenko’s party, the model of supporting pro-Russian groups in Ukraine is now being re-created.
The Communist Party, a small opposition group represented in Parliament, and the Progressive Socialist Party, an even smaller group, are the most pro-Russian parties and are believed to be supported by Moscow, primarily through financial means. However, if allegations prove to be true regarding Russia and Tymoshenko working together, it would have serious implications and consequences for Ukraine. Yulia Tymoshenko has much more power and influence than either the Progressive Socialist Party or Communist Party. More importantly, her popularity and widespread appeal have many believe she is a likely candidate for the 2010 presidential elections.
A Pro-Russian Stance?
As President Yushchenko makes the case that Russia is seeking to spend US$1 billion to support Tymoshenko’s bid for the presidency in exchange for her pro-Russian stance, the Prime Minister has approved a number of decisions that had de-facto strengthened Russian interests in the country.
• The Prime Minister survived a no-confidence vote on July 13, 2008 after the pro-Russian Communist Party had unexpectedly supported her.
• In July 2008, Tymoshenko derailed the signing of a contract for starting supplies of the Caspian Sea crude oil via Ukraine oil pipeline Odessa-Brody to the European Union, ultimately strengthening Russian oil monopoly in the region.
• In May 2008, Tymoshenko derailed an oil exploration project led by United States oil company Vanco Energy that had called for drilling offshore the Black Sea to reduce dependence on Russian energy imports.
Whether it was coincidental or not, several of Tymoshenko’s decisions in recent months have had a de facto positive affect for Russia. However it has been Tymoshenko’s silence in response to the invasion of Georgia that has convinced Yushchenko of her pro-Russian stance and the possibility that she may be cooperating with Moscow for help in securing the presidency.
Near-Term Outlook
The feud between President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, one-time Orange Revolution allies, over Ukraine’s strategic outlook raises fears that Kiev could face political chaos should Russia seek to destabilize a second pro-West neighbor. In addition to decisions made by Tymoshenko in recent months regarding policy, the leadership split was made evident when President Yushchenko flew to Georgia to stand with the embattled leader and Tymoshenko remained silent.
Whether Prime Minister Tymoshenko is receiving financial aid from Russia in a bid for the presidency has yet to be determined. However, the SBU, Ukraine’s security services, is investigating the matter and is expected to release its findings in the near-term. In the longer-term, the Tymoshenko/Yushchenko alliance is likely to split further, as there is a mutual distrust growing between the two. This is expected to cause increased political instability within Ukraine, at a time when the country needs to be united against a resurgent Russia that is sending mixed signals over its future intentions toward Kiev.