Highlights:
– Yemen will continue to be used as a safe haven by al Qaeda affiliates
– Instability and violence will continue in Somalia, and between Ethiopia and Eritrea
– MEND attacks are expected to escalate in Nigeria in 2008
Yemen Faces Security Struggle
Yemen will continue to struggle with a growing threat from al-Qaeda affiliated militants. The July 2, 2007 suicide bombing that killed seven Spaniards reflects al-Qaeda in Yemen (AQY)’s focus on foreigners. Additionally, attacks against Yemeni security forces continued throughout 2007. AQY will continue to target both foreigners and government targets throughout 2008. Suicide bombings, including suicide car bombings, and machine gun attacks will continue to be the modus operandi of AQY. Additionally, Yemen will continue to function as a safe haven and logistics hub for al-Qaeda in 2008.
The recent lull in violence by Shiite rebels in northern Yemen will continue through the first half of 2008. However, political developments and religious holidays could lead to hostilities. Political tensions, heightened towards the end of 2007, will remain high throughout 2008. Civil unrest, including large-scale protests, will continue in 2008 as well. With instability Somalia continuing through 2008, the flood of Somali refugees attempting to reach Yemen will remain problematic in 2008.
Somalia Will Not Improve, Spread Instability
Following a year filled with violence restricted largely to Mogadishu, Somalia is set for another violence-plagued year in 2008. With the ongoing failure of the African Union (AU) and United Nations (UN) to provide peacekeeping troops, the Ethiopian forces currently deployed in Somalia will remain operating in Somalia in the coming year.
While the violence has mainly been restricted to Mogadishu, events towards the end of 2007 suggest the likelihood that violence will spread throughout the country, further destabilizing the country and possibly the region. The December 15, 2007, capture of Bula-Burte by militias is cause for concern. The ability of over 50 heavily armed militants to capture a government-controlled town indicates the insurgents maintain funding and operational capabilities despite several attempted crackdowns by Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and Ethiopian forces.
On the political front, there is unlikely to be much progress. The TFG remains largely unpopular throughout much of the country, especially in Mogadishu. There have been internal tensions throughout much of 2007. Political reconciliation is also unlikely to occur in 2008. The failures of the first six months after the overthrow of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) and the subsequent brutal anti-insurgency campaigns launched by the TFG and Ethiopia troops have created an environment where reconciliation will remain highly unlikely. The ongoing instability in Somalia will continue to cause severe humanitarian affects.
Piracy off the Somali coast will remain a problem, at least through the first half of 2008. Increasing efforts by the international community, most notably the United States and France, to patrol the waters off the Somali coast could begin to result in improvements in the later half of 2008.
Ethiopia-Eritrea Tension Will Increase
Tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea increased significantly in 2007 and will continue to remain high in 2008. The primary flashpoint between the two countries is the border, particularly the border town of Badme. Exacerbating the situation is a variety of insurgencies and rebel groups. Ethiopia, along with the United States and the United Nations, accuse Eritrea of arming the remnants of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU), which is fighting an insurgency against Ethiopian troops that have been in Somalia since early 2007. Also, Ethiopia accuses Eritrea of supporting various rebel movements operating in Ethiopia, including the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) and the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF).
Within Ethiopia, the myriad rebel groups will continue to operate. The ONLF will remain the most significant rebel movement in Ethiopia. ONLF attacks will continue to increase in frequency in 2008, as they have in 2007. The ONLF will primarily continue to target Ethiopian soldiers, with large-scale clashes such as those perpetrated in the latter months of 2007, with greater frequency than in previous years. Additionally, attacks on foreign companies operating in the Ogaden region, such as the April 2007 attack against a Chinese controlled oil field, will continue through 2008. Despite increasingly brutal tactics by the Ethiopian armed forces, the ONLF will maintain its ability to perpetrate attacks, largely due to funding from Eritrea.
Eritrea’s increasing international isolation will continue through 2008. Its continued support of the Somali insurgency, as documented by the United States and the United Nations, will cause further isolation among its few remaining allies. Additionally, Eritrean President Isaias Afewerki’s increasing authoritarian rule will continue throughout 2008. The biggest threat Eritrea will face in 2008, second only to a border war with Ethiopia, is the possibility of an Ethiopian-supported coup. With few international allies and its support of the Somali extremists, the possibility of a coup in Eritrea, with possibly tacit approval from the US similar to Ethiopia’s invasion of Somalia in late 2006, is a real concern for 2008. Such an action, should it occur, could lead to a further destabilization of the Horn of Africa, especially if Ethiopia were to send troops, making it the second occupation of foreign territory for Ethiopian troops.
Nigeria Violence Will Hurt Oil Revenues
The primary threat to stability in Nigeria in 2008 will be the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND). Since launching its militant campaign in late 2006, MEND attacks have cut oil output by nearly 20 percent. The “month of mayhem” launched by MEND in the lead up to the 2007 Nigerian elections are an indication of the continued operational capabilities MEND has retained despite ongoing efforts by the Nigerian security forces to combat MEND. With the failure of the new Nigerian government, led by newly elected president Umaru Yar’Adua, to reach an agreement with MEND following its electoral victory and the failure of peace talks with other Niger Delta militants in the last months of 2007, a return to the intense militant campaign seen in early 2007 seems inevitable.
Most troubling for Nigeria in 2008 is a November 15, 2007, email from MEND stating it intends to expand its area of operations beyond the three Niger Delta states to the rest of Nigeria. Attacks believed to have been perpetrated by MEND militants on November 12 and 13, 2007, in the Nigerian state of Akwa Ibom and in the Bakassi Peninsula in Cameroon are troubling signs that MEND already is capable of launching attacks beyond its traditional area of operations. Further attacks in other parts of Nigeria, especially if they are able to launch an attack in Lagos, will have a significant negative impact on Nigeria’s economy, including the possibility of multinational corporations suspending operations and withdrawing dependents from the region. Further attacks in the previously contested Bakassi Peninsula could lead to increased tensions between Cameroon and Nigeria over Nigeria’s failure to prevent MEND attacks. An increase in attacks within the Niger Delta is also expected in 2008, with the possibility of further cuts in Nigeria’s oil output. One of the few Nigerian successes in 2007, the continue absence of al-Qaeda-inspired militants in it’s Muslim-dominated northern half of the country, will remain steady in 2008.