In the build-up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the national security community braced for a campaign combining military combat, disinformation, electronic warfare and cyber attacks. Vladimir Putin would deploy devastating cyber operations, the thinking went, to disable government and critical infrastructure, blind Ukrainian surveillance capabilities and limit lines of communications to help invading forces. But that’s not how it has played out. At least, not yet. There were some modest cyber attacks ahead of the invasion, including website defacements on Ukrainian government and financial services in January, and similar follow-on operations in February. Satellite broadband provider Viasat was hit with an attack that disrupted commercial and industrial operations throughout Europe, though that event has not been tied to Russia yet. Of course, that’s our assessment right now: the fog of war, combined with the fact that many Ukrainian businesses are shuttered , means there are quite likely more we don’t know about.
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