Given the events of the last four months, including the Northern Bank robbery and the IRA murder of Robert McCartney, it is somewhat ironic and alarming that The Guardian newspaper is reporting that at the forthcoming UK general election, slated for May 5, Sinn Fein may well consolidate its position as the dominant Catholic political party in Northern Ireland. Sinn Fein is always assured of winning the Republican vote in Northern Ireland, but that has traditionally only represented about 20-25% of the Catholic electorate. However, over the last 10 years and despite its obvious links with the Provisional IRA , an increasing percentage of moderate Catholics have been swayed by Sinn Fein?s policies and are willing to ignore its terrorist connections.

This switch of allegiance has resulted, in part, from Sinn Fein?s effectiveness as a political party, particularly at the local level, albeit that this success as resulted, in part, by exploiting paramilitary ?muscle? to effect changes. However, the moderate Social Democrat and Labor Party?s failure to reinvigorate and mobilize its traditional core vote amongst moderate Catholics have also significantly enhanced Sinn Fein?s cause. As a result, Sinn Fein will likely consolidate its position as the political voice of most nationalist Catholics, not just hard-line Republicans. This is likely to have a profound effect on the peace process in Northern Ireland.

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