A major, forward-leaning report written by the CIA?s National Intelligence Council (NIC)?essentially the CIA Director?s in-house think tank?predicts a number of compelling developments in global terrorism and al-Qaeda -associated terrorism over the next 15 years. Specifically, the report suggests that al-Qaeda?s core veteran leadership and operational cadres will likely be superseded by the growth of an increasingly diffuse terrorist network of local and regional militant and terrorist groups inspired by radical Islamic ideology. Further, the report suggests that these core al-Qaeda cadres will be replaced with ?professionalized? and battle-hardened terrorist and militant veterans emerging from the Iraq insurgency.

The report contends that radical Islamic ideology will continue to serve as the galvanizing and rallying motivation for most terrorist groups around the world in the near future: ?Experts assess that the majority of international terrorist groups will continue to identify with radical Islam. The revival of Muslim identity will create a framework for the spread of radical Islamic ideology both inside and outside the Middle East, including Western Europe, Southeast Asia and Central Asia.? The report goes on to note that: ?There are indications that the Islamic radicals? professed desire to create a transnational insurgency, that is, a drive by Muslim extremists to overthrow a number of allegedly apostate secular governments with predominately Muslim subjects, will have an appeal to many Muslims.? However, in a powerfully insightful statement, the report contends that the majority of future terrorist motivations should not be considered solely religious in nature, but rather a confluence of Islamic radicalism or Islamic solidarity with existing perceived political and societal grievances, in turn cultivating nationalist liberation motivations. ?This revival [of Muslim identity] has been accompanied by a deepening solidarity among Muslims caught up in national or regional separatist struggles, such as in Pakistan [Country Profile], Chechnya, Iraq [Country Profile], Kashmir, Mindanao, or southern Thailand [Country Profile] and has emerged in response to government repression, corruption, and ineffectiveness.? Additional perceived political grievances abound that could also stoke terrorism, and ?anti-globalization and opposition to US policies could cement a greater body of terrorist sympathizers, financiers, and collaborators.?