The arrest of three Iraqis in Germany for allegedly plotting an attack against visiting Iraqi Prime Minister Ayad Allawi poses an interesting question. Instead of militants going to Iraq, it seems some of them would take advantage of situations in which they reside. There has been much discussion about the threat to Europe that militants pose (see this WAR Report), but that is mostly against European targets or US and Israeli targets in Europe. Iraq is one of the most dangerous places in the world where Iraqi politicians and officials as well as US or other foreign representatives are all high value targets for insurgents and other groups. Some of these actions are discriminate, namely kidnappings and assassinations; others are less discriminate, like bombings and shootings, and are aimed at any foreigner or regime official. Allawi would be a prize target, both in and out of Iraq.

At times it seems that security in Iraq is simply not good enough to withstand this onslaught of attacks, judging by the high number of them. Yet, one would think that Allawi must have the best security available, or he would have been taken out some time ago. Or, he has been very lucky. Even the best security eventually has an opening or flaw that a would-be assassin could exploit if the timing and circumstances were right. However, does this reasoning necessarily hold true for when he is abroad? The stakes of Allawi being assassinated while abroad would fall squarely on the shoulders of the country he was visiting at the time. A successful assassination anywhere in Europe would question the tenacity of Western security. It would also be a major propaganda victory to militant groups. They see Allawi as a puppet of the West and the United States, and where he to be assassinated on foreign soil, it would be poetic justice to them.