Forward (Kadima), the Future (Al-Mustaqbal) and Chaos
Elections and chaos are the two central themes for Israel and Palestine for 2006. 2005 ended with the typical chaos that has plagued the Middle East for the last 2,000 years. Lawlessness, kidnappings, and revenge killings were the norm for Gaza. Cronyism, corruption, and incompetence were the norm for Fatah and the government of President Mahmoud Abbas. Prime Minister Ariel Sharon unilaterally pulled all the settlements out of Gaza and departed the Likud Party, forming a new party called Kadima (Forward).
Joining Kadima with Sharon are Avi Dichter, former head of Shin Bet, Shaul Mofaz, former Defense Minister, and Avigdor Yitzhaki. Shimon Peres who for over 40 years was a member of the Labor Party found himself replaced by Amir Peretz. Peres, who supports Kadima, will likely become the prime minister under the caretaker government.
Elections in Israel are scheduled for March 28, 2006, and it appears that Sharon?s Kadima Party will win at least 36 seats, putting Sharon back in office. To add to the chaos, Sharon will undergo a medical procedure to close a hole in his heart on January 5. This condition was discovered when he suffered a small stroke and was hospitalized.
Kadima will be the big winner in the election, and Sharon can move forward with a mandate from the Israeli people. After all these years of political fighting, Sharon has an opportunity to get the Road Map back on track and provide security for Israel. Sharon wants to bring peace to Israel before the 60th anniversary of the founding of Israel in 2008. And so, Sharon moves forward like he has long done, marching to his own drum.
President Abbas nearly averted a disaster when Marwan Barghouti, Mohammed Dahlan, and other members of the young guard were ready to run against Fatah and Hamas , fielding their own candidates in the January 25, 2006, parliamentary elections. Barghouti formed the Future (Al-Mustaqbal) Party and listed candidates for election. Abbas and the old Fatah guard quickly assessed that they might be the big losers and negotiated a return to Fatah of the young guard. Fatah has begun campaigning aggressively with posters and pictures of Yasser Arafat (Intel Report) and Marwan Barghouti. Even by averting the split of the two competing factions of Fatah, Hamas is likely to win one-third of the seats in the Palestinian Legislative Council. Hamas, for years, has been developing a strong social network, providing free schooling, medical treatment, and support for Gazans. Fatah should hold on to win the lion?s share of the seats in this election, but if the young guard does not succeed in reforming Fatah, their future will not look so bright. Hamas has been getting stronger and will only continue to do so.
Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) will continue to provide additional chaos, as it continues to conduct suicide bombings of targets within Israel. The Palestinian Authority under Mahmoud Abbas has taken a course of negotiation with the various terrorist groups to gain a temporary ceasefire. PIJ will continue to conduct suicide bombings, though. At some point, the PNA is going to have to take harsh action against this and any other group that might threaten the peace. Sooner or later, there will be a changing of the guard in both Israel and Palestine.
Sooner or later, the young guard of Marwan Barghouti and Mohammed Dahlan will have to wrest power from the old Arafat ?Tunis? crowd. Arafat showed that these leaders want to maintain control until their death. The opportunity for new leaders with new ideas is upon us. Hopefully, they can move forward without too much chaos.
