Highlights
– Tensions between Hamas and Fatah at highest point since 2007
– Politically motivated arrests to continue, raising hostilities in near term
– Reconciliation talks likely to fail, leading to increased violence in area
After Hamas’s victory in the March 2006 Palestinian legislative elections, violence erupted in the West Bank and Gaza Strip between Hamas and Fatah, the incumbent party. According to the Palestinian Independent Commission for Citizens’ Rights, from the time the violence erupted in 2006 until May 2007, more than 600 Palestinians were killed in factional fighting.
Although the violence subsided in June 2007, renewed tension between the two groups was first seen in January of this year and escalated in late May when six people were killed as Palestinian Authority (PA) and Hamas forces clashed in the West Bank town of Qalqilya.
After nearly two years of bloodshed and a political impasse that has slowed the progress of the Arab-Israeli peace process, Hamas and Fatah agreed to meet in Cairo for reconciliation talks in January of this year. Thus far, despite Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak’s demand that the groups make an agreement by July 7, the talks have been unsuccessful. Amidst politically motivated arrests, we do not believe reconciliation talks can be successful. Failed talks will likely result in an increase in tension and a return to violence not seen since mid-2007. On the macro-level, this violence will severely hinder progress towards peace with Israel.
Failed Reconciliation Talks
After the recent 22-day Israeli offensive against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, the Egyptian government invited Hamas and Fatah to Cairo for reconciliation talks. For months, Egypt has been pressing 13 Palestinian factions to set the framework for a unity government.
Both groups have accused the other of attempting to sabotage the reconciliation talks by arresting opposing members. Several hundred Hamas members are now detained in PA jails in the West Bank and several hundred individuals loyal to Fatah have been detained in Hamas jails in the Gaza Strip. As a result, the groups were unable to comply with the July 7 deadline demanded by Mubarak. The groups are set to meet for a 7th round of dialogue in Cairo on July 25.
The failure of reconciliation talks between the two groups is likely to have severe repercussions on the security situation in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. If the groups cannot reconcile in the next round of talks, we expect increased arrests of individuals loyal to both groups, fueling additional tensions. We believe it is unlikely the talks on July 25 will be productive.
Hamas Allegedly Preparing for a Coup
During the past month, Fatah and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas have accused Hamas of preparing for a coup attempt in the West Bank, comparing it to the Hamas takeover of Gaza in 2007. On May 30, six people were killed in the West Bank town of Qalqilya when forces loyal to Abbas raided a Hamas hideout. Fatah’s spokesman described this event as the beginning of a coup attempt in the West Bank.
A few days later, the PA detained a Hamas member who allegedly admitted to receiving 1.5 million euros from the group’s leadership in the Gaza Strip to establish infrastructure aimed at undermining Abbas’s regime in the West Bank. Security forces seized maps, plans, and the cash during a raid on the suspect’s house.
Again, in early July, the PA revealed that it had arrested members of a Hamas cell in the West Bank who had allegedly confessed to plotting to carry out attacks against PA officials and institutions before July 7, the date Fatah and Hamas were initially expected to sign a reconciliation agreement.
Although there appears to be little evidence to support the PA’s allegation of an impending coup attempt, these plots will continue to increase the tensions and suspicions between the two parties and provide legitimacy for continued crackdowns on Hamas members in the West Bank. This will likely be met with violent resistance, further escalating the conflict.
Tensions to Escalate
In the near to medium term, we anticipate a steady increase in tension between the two groups. Failed reconciliation talks, politically motivated arrests, and allegations of a Hamas coup attempt are likely to fuel unrest in the area and lead to an increase in violence. Unsuccessful reconciliation talks are likely to lead to violence. We expect this unrest to mirror that which occurred in 2006-2007.
The failure to reconcile will prevent the creation of a unity Palestinian government, which the Palestinian Authority has been trying to achieve since Hamas took over the Gaza Strip. The challenge is that for Hamas to participate in any unity government, it would have to be under PA conditions, which requires an adherence to international agreements and the recognition of Israel. As a political party, Hamas has done neither. The failure to create a unity government will hinder progress towards a solution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, as an agreement with the PA does not extend to Hamas.
We do not anticipate the conflict between Haas and Fatah to affect Israel. In 2006-2007, the violence was entirely internal and did not spread outside of the West Bank and Gaza Strip. We note that the Israeli government has attempted to refrain from commenting on internal Palestinian issues. Hamas, however, has rejected this, claiming that Fatah members are spying for Israel in the Gaza Strip.
