Highlights
– Military exercises increase tensions between Russia and Georgia
– President Saakashvili accuses Russia of preparing to invade Georgia
– Second war will likely result in removal of President Saakashvili
On June 29, 2009 Russia began large-scale military exercises involving thousands of troops and other military equipment across its southern regions. Dubbed “Caucasus 2009”, the week-long war games are taking place just north of South Ossetia, the site of Russia’s conflict with Georgia in August 2008 (Previous Report).
While there are several motives behind Russia’s latest military exercises, including enhancing battle readiness and preparedness, the primary motive is likely to serve as a stern warning to Georgia. The Georgian government’s response has been muted; President Mikhail Saakashvili is likely playing a wait-and-see approach, largely in terms of the international reaction to the war games. The international community is unlikely to aggressively respond to the games or side with Georgia, primarily due to the international community’s lack of will to confront Russia.
In the near-term, we believe tensions between Russia and Georgia will be high. The exercises serve as a reminder of how volatile the situation in the Caucasus is and how military exercises by either side bring the two nations closer to conflict. Similar exercises took place prior to last year’s war with Georgia, raising speculation that the latest war games are a prelude to fresh hostilities with the aim of entering Tbilisi and overthrowing President Saakashvili. While this remains a possibility, renewed hostilities will largely depend on the reaction of President Saakashvili.
Goals of the War Games
Lasting until July 6th, Russia’s Defense Ministry said nearly 8,500 troops, 200 tanks, 450 armored vehicles, and 250 artillery pieces were involved in the exercises. Russian soldiers based in Georgia’s breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia are taking part in the training exercises. Military sources claim the aim of the war games is to establish battle readiness and quicker troop deployment.
Russia claims the military maneuvers and planning would include Chechnya, Dagestan, and Ingushetia, continuing to focus on rebel groups and counter-insurgency warfare in the region. However, the forces involved and nature of the games appear to be focusing more on conventional war and strategy.
Russia’s envoy to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) defended the games by claiming the exercises were meant to boost the country’s defense needs. Moscow sees the Caucasus region as a strategically vital zone for several reasons, primarily as an important energy transit route. Russia views any challenge from other countries as a threat to its national security, hence the country’s hostility toward the Georgian President’s pro-West agenda and overall plans to enhance ties with the West.
Europe Withdraws
Russia’s war games come as at least 20 unarmed international observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) prepare to end their 17-year deployment in Georgia. Another 130 United Nations (UN) monitors are also due to pull out of Abkhazia because of a veto from Russia. The withdrawals will leave nearly 225 European Union (EU) monitors watching multiple fronts.
The withdrawal will leave the international community incapable of monitoring the situation on the border of Russia and Georgia, or the security environment in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The pullout will also likely result in increased separatist violence, potentially drawing a harsh Georgian response and renewed hostilities with Russia.
Without European observers, the risk for conflict increases. The lack of trust between the sides can easily translate into violent clashes and the outbreak of conventional war. While Europe’s presence in the region is small, it was symbolic and translated into a sense of security for Georgia. Europe’s withdrawal will result in an increase of accusations on the Georgian side that Russia is preparing for a major cross-border military offensive with the intent of removing President Saakashvili.
A Pending Conflict
President Saakashvili and other Georgian leaders are convinced Russia’s latest military exercises are a prelude to an invasion. Strong domestic opposition to President Saakashvili limits his options in rallying both domestic and international support to counter the Russian threat. The lack of options and current war games close to the Georgian border leaves President Saakashvili in a weakened position, one in which Russia is almost certain to exploit.
Moscow continues to accuse Saakashvili of building up Georgia’s armed forces and military adventurism toward Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The accusations may provide Russia with an excuse to expand further into Georgian territory. Russia has already established forward bases in South Ossetia and Abkhazia that are capable of supplying an invasion force. In the August 2008 war with Georgia, Russia was restricted in its ground invasion due to overstretched supply lines. The newly established bases will allow for both a long-term presence and ground invasion.
The Kremlin’s distaste for President Saakashvili is at an all-time high, while the desire to prevent Georgia from gaining membership in NATO and the EU is strong. While Russian troops did not go into Tbilisi in August 2008, renewed conflict between the two nations would likely result in Russian troops occupying the capital city and removing Saakashvili. In addition, a Russian invasion of Georgia is unlikely to draw the international opposition it did last year, particularly from the United States (US), proving vital in any final decision by the Kremlin.
In the coming weeks and months, Russia is likely to attempt to bait President Saakashvili to take aggressive action to defend Georgia’s sovereignty. Should Saakashvili take the bait, the Kremlin would likely use his response as a pretext to go to war and eliminate Saakashvili for good.
