Highlights
-Al-Shabaab militants have significantly increased attacks in recent weeks
-Neighboring Kenya to intervene, as Transitional Federal Government declares State of Emergency
-Al-Shabaab pledges allegiance to Osama bin Laden
-International intervention may assist TFG against insurgents; attacks will continue to intensify in the near to medium-term
Following Somali President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed’s declaration of a state of emergency on June 20, the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) asked for foreign intervention within 24 hours.
Al Qaeda-affiliated al-Shabaab militants have not ceased attacking TFG and foreign military targets in southern Somalia since last month. Insurgents have killed over 250 people in Mogadishu since early May and show no sign of stopping in the near future. Surrounding nations like Kenya and Ethiopia expressed their willingness to join in the fight, however, only with “a clear and approved mandate by the international community.”
In response, al-Shabaab threatened to attack Nairobi if Kenya intervenes and demanded that Kenyan troops be removed from the porous border region. In one week, al-Shabaab militants killed the National Security Minister of Somalia, a Member of Parliament (MP), and the police chief of Mogadishu in separate attacks that together killed at least 42 people. Somali authorities have reported that the latest suicide attacks included foreign militants fighting alongside Somali al-Shabaab members. In the near-term, we expect no abatement in violence as militants from abroad join the fray against the TFG.
Intense Attack Campaign Draws International Fears
Preceding al-Shabaab’s deadly attacks, the group officially pledged allegiance to al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden in a live radio broadcast on June 12 (Previous Report).
As expected, the merger brought increased funding, capabilities and recruits to the group in relatively short time. Nearly one week after the announcement, al-Shabaab militants executed the largest suicide attack in Somalia to date.
•On June 18, following the assassination of Mogadishu’s police commander, three al-Shabaab militants drove suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive devise (VBIED) into the Medina Hotel in Beledweyne, north of Mogadishu, killing 42 people, including TFG Security Minister Omar Hashi Aden .
Gunmen killed Somali MP Mohamed Hussein Addow the following day.
Kenya, which has a relatively large and influential Somali population, has been reluctant to play aggressor in Somalia and might not attack unless attacked.
We note, however, that Kenyan officials have called on the international community to consider sending “military assistance” to the war-torn nation to restrain the armed conflict. Moreover, Kenyan officials supported the Ethiopian position that a multi-lateral, rather than unilateral approach, is the only hope for Somalia.
Outlook
As the fighting intensifies, government officials are pleading to the international community for help in the south-central region of Somalia. Global powers have extended financial, logistical and military support to the nominally independent regions of Somaliland and Puntland, enabling them to police their coastlines and better impact the fight against piracy. However, in the heart of the country, global powers must work to strengthen Somalia’s fragile government and assist in effectively combating the insurgents.
Ultimately, a regional and/or international presence in Somalia will trigger an intensified insurgency and cause militants to act on previous promises to attack neighboring countries. We expect the instability in Somalia to worsen before it improves in the near to medium-term. We anticipate an influx of foreign jihadists in the near future, as al-Shabaab will call on mujahideen from around the world to support the fight in Somalia.
