Highlights
– German intelligence agencies warned of increased threat against German institutions and businesses
– Plots on German soil designed to turn public opinion against Chancellor Merkel
– Terrorist groups continually recruit German nationals to gain insider access for future terror plots
Germany faces a rising threat from al Qaeda militants and sympathizers ahead of the country’s parliamentary election in September 2009. A recent report in the German news weekly, Der Spiegel, stated Germany’s intelligence agencies received warning from US government officials that al Qaeda leadership is actively plotting attacks against targets on German soil (Source). The report notes that German nationals conducting business in North Africa face an increased threat of kidnapping from al Qaeda linked militants of the al Qaeda Organization in the Islamic Maghreb (AOIM).
Threats Begin to Pile Up
The latest information parallels a similar warning by US officials detailed in a February 2009 report by Deutsche Press Agentur. In the February 2009 assessment, US officials claimed an unspecified number of German nationals have traveled to terror camps in the Pakistan/Afghanistan region and are planning to return to Germany weeks before the parliamentary election in September 2009 to prepare attacks on “high-ranking targets.” (Source) The report cited an unidentified official who suspected suicide bombers would carry out the attacks. In addition, a 2008 estimate by German authorities concluded there are several hundred known Islamic extremists in the country.
Germany’s military role in Afghanistan, currently the third largest contributor, leaves the country at risk for al Qaeda devised terror plots. In all likelihood, the characteristics of an attack in Germany would likely resemble that of the 7/7 London Tube bombings and the 2004 Madrid train bombings – highly trafficked, mass casualty targets.
• In September 2007 German authorities thwarted a terror plot targeting Ramstein air base, prominent nightclubs and pubs, and the Frankfurt airport. The suspects were part of the Uzbekistan-based and al Qaeda-linked Islamic Jihad Union (IJU). The cell had assembled a large stock of hydrogen peroxide-based liquid.
We remain concerned that the success of the November attacks in Mumbai will be imitated by a number of terrorist groups based on the large number of casualties that resulted and the mass chaos created by the multiple attacks. The threat of a terrorist attack on German soil and against German interests abroad remains high, particularly as parliamentary elections near.
Shaping the Public Agenda
Leading up to Germany’s national elections, we note a number of similarities between the German political landscape and the political environment surrounding Spain’s 2004 election. Several days prior to the 2004 election, al Qaeda-inspired militants detonated bombs on four commuter trains in Madrid. At the time, Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar’s Popular Party (PP) held a slim lead in the polls and maintained strong support for the war in Iraq.
Following the attack, Aznar’s party was ousted and the new government of Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero immediately withdrew all Spanish troops from Iraq. We believe al Qaeda leadership will look to launch attacks on German soil in hopes of sparking a similar public revolt against Berlin’s pledged military support in Afghanistan. While this would be an ideal result for al Qaeda leadership, an attack on German soil would only further strengthen Germany’s resolve and commitment to hunting down al Qaeda leadership in the Pakistan/Afghanistan regions, as well as terror trained militants within its borders.
Upcoming Elections
Germany’s domestic intelligence agency has distributed an updated security assessment to all regional authorities ahead of the final election dates. Notable election dates and locations include:
• Aug. 30: Saarland
• August 30: Thuringia
• August 30: Saxony
• September 27: General Elections
• September 27: Brandenburg
Outlook
Germany’s grand coalition, made up of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Conservatives and the Social Democrats, support Germany’s decision to send 4,500 to Afghanistan as part of a NATO peacekeeping force. Merkel’s CDU/CSU-FDP alliance currently holds close to a 50 percent majority required to form a grand coalition. Given these similarities, there is a high likelihood al Qaeda leadership is looking to sway German public opinion against Merkel’s coalition by initiating a large-scale attack on German soil before upcoming parliamentary elections.
As long as Germany contributes troops to the frontlines in Afghanistan, al-Qaeda will look to recruit German nationals and German Muslims for terrorist attacks against the country. Moreover, as Germany has thus far avoided its first large-scale terrorist attack on its homeland, international terrorist groups will remain determined to strike on German territory in the long-term.
