Highlights
– Parliamentary elections to occur on June 7 most hotly contested in years
– Hezbollah and its allies poised to win a major victory
– Outcome could impact regional security and stability and result in war with Israel
Lebanese parliamentary elections, which will determine the extent of military and economic aid Lebanon will receive from the US, are set to take place on June 7. Vice President Joe Biden’s visit to Beirut in late May, the first high-ranking US official to visit Lebanon since 1983, illustrates the importance of the elections to the US.
Two groups, the March 14 Alliance and the March 8 Alliance, dominate the Lebanese political system. The March 14 Alliance, created in 2005 on the one month anniversary of the assassination of Rafik Hariri, is pro-Western and anti-Syrian. The March 8 Alliance, also created in 2005 but in response to pro-Syrian demonstrations on March 8, 2005 in Beirut, is pro-Syrian/Iranian, and includes Hezbollah.
This round of elections, the 15th multi-party elections since the country’s independence in 1943, is proving to be Lebanon’s most hotly contested elections ever, even though in many districts the electoral outcome is all but decided.
Hezbollah Poised to Win
The March 14 Alliance currently has the majority (72 seats) in Lebanon’s 128-seat parliament, while Hezbollah and its allies hold 58 seats. We believe there is a high probability that the March 8 Alliance will take a majority of parliamentary seats in the upcoming election.
In recent months, Hezbollah has quietly been campaigning with a moderate message, aiming to show that a victory by its coalition should not scare anyone. Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s leader, has said that if his coalition wins, he would invite opponents to join in a national unity government to ensure stability. Although some doubt Hezbollah’s continued popularity, especially in the wake of accusations that Hezbollah was responsible for the assassination of Rafik Hariri, tens of thousands of people gathered on May 25 to hear Nasrallah speak, a testimony to his popularity in the country of only 4 million.
Impact on Regional Security and Stability
A Hezbollah victory would increase Syrian influence over Lebanese politics, represent a serious setback for US efforts to promote democracy in the region, and would likely instigate a regional conflict with Israel. Israel’s fear of a resurgent Hezbollah in the wake of the 2006 war and the connections between Hezbollah and Iran, which Israel views as an existential threat, continue to drive much of Israeli foreign policy.
If conflict does break out, it will likely model the 34-day conflict of 2006 that aimed to disarm Hezbollah and decrease its capabilities. The increased popularity and political legitimacy that comes with electoral victory would add to Hezbollah’s organizational capacity, and perhaps change the nature of the conflict. It is unlikely, however, that the tactics will differ greatly from those used in the summer of 2006.
During the campaign, Hezbollah has been upping its anti-Israel rhetoric and Israel has been increasing its anti-Hezbollah rhetoric – suggesting that both parties are preparing their citizens and followers for a potential conflict with the other.
Other than rhetoric, according to Israeli intelligence, Hezbollah has gradually been preparing for the possibility of a conflict by attempting to add long-range missiles to their armament. Long-range missiles would be necessary for a successful confrontation with Israel since the war in 2006 pushed the group north of the Litani River. Continued Iranian support of Hezbollah is also likely to increase the risk of violent conflict if Hezbollah does gain the majority because Israel will likely interpret a Hezbollah victory as an Iranian victory as well.
