Highlights
– Nearly 300 Iraqis killed as country experiences surge of violence
– Saddam Hussein’s Baath party making a resurgence; al-Qaeda in Iraq pipeline in Syria reactivated
– Increased violence likely in the coming weeks as US combat troops set to withdraw from urban areas by June 30
A surge in violence has claimed the lives of almost 300 Iraqis in recent weeks. This spate in attacks – aimed at stoking sectarian tension and undermining public confidence only weeks before US combat troops are due to leave Baghdad and other cities – is a blow to hopes that Iraqi security forces were beginning to effectively enforce law and order across the country.
Despite the attacks, security in Baghdad is far improved over the first three years of the war when bombings occurred daily. In recent months, violence has been cyclical with periods of calm interrupted by a brief series of high-profile attacks. Levels of violence began elevating in April (Previous Report).
The US military maintains that the Iraqi insurgency no longer has the capacity to sustain prolonged bombing campaigns, thus instead focuses on producing spikes in violence that attract attention by causing large numbers of civilian casualties.
We anticipate, however, that over the next month, violence will remain consistent. Declining rates of violence early in the year contributed to the US military’s assessment, but long-term variables, including the anticipated US withdrawal from urban areas set to occur at the end of June, the reactivation of the al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) pipeline in Syria, and the mentality of insurgent groups that necessitates the perpetration of violence in order to remain relevant, indicates otherwise.
Al-Qaeda and the Baath Party
The fact that the most recent attacks single out Shiite targets suggests that al-Qaeda and other Sunni extremists are trying to rekindle sectarian fighting and undermine Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Malaki within his core Shiite constituency. Evidence suggests that the demand for al-Qaeda fighters in Iraq has increased in recent weeks, prompting the reactivation of an al-Qaeda pipeline from Syria. Last month, General Petraeus, the head of US Central Command, told congress that the pipeline that was once defunct has now been reactivated, transporting 20 fighters per month into Iraq, versus just 5 earlier this year.
In addition to al-Qaeda, some Iraqi officials are blaming remnants of the Baath party for the resurgence in violence, maintaining that despite the broad philosophic differences between al-Qaeda and the Baath party, the two groups are cooperating to plan and carry out attacks on civilians. The alleged head of the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI), Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, verified this claim in a tape aired on Iraqi state television, saying that his order came from militants and from former members of Saddam’s Baath party.
Increased Violence Anticipated
We believe that the planned withdrawal of US combat troops from Iraqi cities will result in increased violence throughout Iraq in the long term. According to Admiral Michael Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the withdrawal of US combat forces from Iraqi cities by the end of June, however, is still on track. We anticipate violent and deadly months to follow the US withdrawal, which could prompt a renewed Sunni insurgency, the revival of the Baath Party, and/or an opening for increased Iranian influence in Iraq, all of which would threaten stability and Western interests in the region.
The violence is also indicative of increased terrorist activity in Iraq. The US withdrawal could result in the creation of a new al-Qaeda base in the Middle East, which would also threaten stability and Western interests in the region.
If the violence continues, however, the Iraqi government could ask the US for assistance past the June 30 deadline, in accordance with the security agreement signed last year. As of now, it does not look like the Iraqis will ask for continued US support.
