Highlights
– Egyptian police arrested seven people with links to al-Qaeda over involvement in a February bomb attack
– Al-Qaeda-linked cell, Palestinian Army of Islam, comprised of multinationals and mixed genders
– Fragments of al-Qaeda-linked militants suggest growing militant influence and increased potential for future attacks in near to medium-term
On May 23, 2009 Egyptian police detained seven people in Cairo with suspected links to al-Qaeda. The group planned the February 22 bomb attack in the popular tourist town of Khan el Khalili that killed a French teenager and wounded at least 24 others . Egyptian Interior Ministry officials stated that the six men and woman detained had explosives and ammunition in their possession and were recruited specifically to carry out attacks in Egypt and Europe. The cell, known as the Palestinian Army of Islam, is comprised of several nationalities with strong links to international terrorist operatives in North Africa, the Middle East, and Europe.
The recent development comes at a critical time for Egypt, as it attempts to rebuild its tourism reputation and project an image of safety and security. The latest arrests indicate a growing trend towards extremism and al-Qaeda sympathizers in Egypt and in the region. It is possible security forces will round up additional militants, and may be forced to face armed resistance or additional attacks against primary targets, such as Westerners and Western interests in the near to medium-term.
Al-Qaeda Links to Egypt Grow
Egypt has suffered a number of deadly attacks in previous years, including the Sinai Red Sea resorts in 2004 and 2006, which authorities blamed on militants loyal to al-Qaeda, or supportive of jihad. However, the February attack was the first in Egypt with identified organizational links to al-Qaeda. Such connections are significant as they indicate a growing influence of al-Qaeda sympathizers and linked militants planning to conduct attacks against Westerners and Western interests in Egypt and abroad. Moreover, the detained militants confessed that some members of the Palestinian Army of Islam traveled to the Gaza Strip through underground smuggling tunnels to receive military training and acquire weapons or ammunition.
It is possible that the Palestinian Army of Islam has a larger presence in Egypt and is awaiting further instruction to carry out more attacks in the near to medium-term. We assess that the footprints al-Qaeda-linked militants left behind will lead to future arrests and potentially dangerous clashes with state security forces in the near to medium-term. Al-Qaeda has made clear its intention to carry out attacks in North Africa and in Europe by means of recruiting members solely for this purpose. The Palestinian Army of Islam sought to carry out those orders, and though they were eventually arrested, we anticipate more members of the group will attempt to undertake the original plan.
Palestinian Army of Islam Cell Dynamics
Interior Ministry officials reported that the group comprised at least one woman and five nationalities, including one French woman of Albanian origin, a Belgian man of Tunisian origin, a British man of Egyptian origin, two Egyptians and two Palestinians. According to the Ministry’s statement, two Egyptians living abroad managed the group and had recruited militants to enter into the Gaza Strip via underground cross-border tunnels for advanced training in explosives, electrical circuitry, remote detonation and booby traps.
Upon his arrest, the Belgian man also confessed that he was instructed to travel to Belgium and connect with other members of al-Qaeda in order to travel to France with a female partner and carryout attacks there. Some suspects revealed instructions to attack tourist resorts and fuel pipelines in the Sinai Peninsula – the same objective as al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and al-Qaeda in Yemen (AQY) terrorist groups.
With many of the members originating from North Africa and coupled with their specified interests in conducting attacks in Egypt and France, in particular, it is possible the Palestinian Army of Islam may share links with other regional al-Qaeda affiliates, such as the al-Qaeda Organization in the Islamic Maghreb (AOIM), AQAP, and AQY. Al-Qaeda’s regional groups may be recruiting members to join the Palestinian Army of Islam to carry out specified attacks in designated countries.
Regional Cooperation and Increased Attacks
We assess jihadist websites will post a number of threads praising the latest group’s attack intentions. We suspect supports of other regional groups, such as AOIM, AQAP, and AQY, will engage in propaganda postings regarding the group’s attempted attacks and call for additional members to join the cause.
