Highlights
– Soldiers stage rebellion at a base in Mukhrovani
– President Saakashvili accuses Russia of orchestrating the plot
– Revolt likely caused by opposition to Saakashvili’s domestic and foreign policies
On May 5, 2009 a tank battalion at Mukhrovani base staged an uprising against the Georgian government. Mukhrovani base commander Mamuka Gorgishvili orchestrated the rebellion and made a statement criticizing Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili, but pledged not to resort to force. Several hundred Army personnel and some civilians were involved in the revolt.
Saakashvili perceived the rebellion as a major national security threat, dispatching up to 30 tanks and armored personnel carriers to quell the uprising. The government claimed the incident ended without violence, as many rebels, including the commander of the battalion, surrendered.
Saakashvili’s administration immediately accused Russia of orchestrating the uprising at Mukhrovani. Accusations of Russian involvement, strongly denied by Moscow, reignited latent diplomatic tensions stemming from the country’s adversarial relationship with Russia. While it remains possible that Russia was directly involved in the rebellion in an attempt to weaken or overthrow Saakashvili, we believe the uprising in Mukhrovani likely was primarily motivated by domestic factors and Saakashvili’s growing unpopularity within the country.
Russian Involvement
In a televised address, Saakashvili stated the plan was coordinated with Russia and meant as a large-scale coup. Russia’s envoy to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) called the accusations insane and denied any involvement in the incident at Mukhrovani. The Georgian government claims two individuals were arrested and the plot involved the assassination of Saakashvili.
Saakashvili regularly accuses Russia of interfering in Georgian domestic affairs. Tensions between the two have remained high since the war in August 2008. Russian soldiers occupy two Georgian breakaway provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
The revolt comes a day before NATO exercises were scheduled to begin in Georgia. Nearly 1,000 soldiers were to practice crisis response at the Vaziani Army base, east of Tbilisi. The base is located in close proximity to Russian troops in South Ossetia. Enhanced Georgian-NATO relations have been an important goal of President Saakashvili and are opposed by the Russian government. Despite Russian opposition, we believe the likelihood of direct Russian involvement in the uprising is low.
Saakashvili can gain domestic and international support if he is able to portray Russia as the aggressor. While Russia has an interest in seeing Saakashvili removed from power, directly supporting or orchestrating a military coup will be interpreted as immensely provocative, especially on the eve of scheduled training exercises with NATO.
Saakashvili’s Growing Unpopularity
The incident at Mukhrovani comes at a time when President Saakashvili is facing increased opposition and calls for his resignation. Opposition parties began street demonstrations on April 9, 2009 to force Saakashvili to resign. While these demonstrations have largely dissipated, Saakashvili’s popularity remains at record lows.
A statement released by Gorgishvili, leader of the rebellion, accused Saakashvili of presiding over a country on the verge of collapse. Opposition to Saakashvili has stemmed from ordinary civilians, but the latest incident represents a new set of problems. Opposition from the Georgian military will severely weaken the President and prevent attempts to restore order. It will also represent a major blow to Saakashvili on an international level.
Future Outlook
The mutiny at Mukhrovani is indicative of the deteriorating political, economic, and social situation in Georgia. The timing of the rebellion may be linked to recent government plans to use troops to end weeks of opposition roadblocks, which were expected to intensify following the May 5th announcement that additional roadblocks would be established. The revolt may also have to do with military opposition to the May 6th training exercises with NATO.
Saakashvili is losing support among the public, and now appears to be losing the support of the military. Without military support, Saakashvili’s legitimacy would be severely weakened and his ability to maintain control would be jeopardized. A disorganized opposition movement and signs the revolt in Mukhrovani was an isolated incident decreases the likelihood of Saakashvili losing complete control of Georgia in the near-term.
Russia is likely to welcome the latest events in Georgia, primarily because it could scare some European NATO allies that regard the Saakashvili government as increasingly unstable. While it remains possible that Russia was at least tacitly involved in the Mukhrovani incident, the long-term effects for Saakashvili will prove to be dire and may result in his removal from power.
