– Protest leaders call off siege of Government House
– Clashes between protesters and residents leave two dead
– Opposition tempered for now, likelihood of renewed protests remains high
Protest leaders agreed to end their three-week siege of Government House on April 24, 2009, as armed troops appeared on the verge of removing the demonstrators by force. The decision to end the campaign came after several days of violent confrontations between protesters and government troops that resulted in two dead and over one hundred wounded.
For now, it appears that Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has dodged a rather large bullet, but we remain concerned that red shirts may yet again take to the streets in support of their exiled leader, Thaksin Shinawatra.
Momentum Shifts in Favor of Abhisit
After the opposition’s success at forcing the cancellation of the ASEAN summit, it appeared for a time that the red shirts were beginning to gain the upper hand over the current government.
By the weekend, armed soldiers had fought running street battles with pro-Thaksin protesters who appeared both determined and unafraid. Soldiers were met with burning tire fires, gridlocked intersections, and petrol bombs as they attempted to reestablish some semblance of order throughout the city.
Stores closed their doors while foreign governments advised their citizens in Bangkok to remain indoors and to avoid wearing red or yellow shirts for fear of being swept up in the political violence.
At what appeared to be the height of protesters vitriol, following the death of two demonstrators, the tide began to turn. By nightfall on April 13, soldiers began to surround demonstrators who had occupied the grounds of Government House. Given the seething rage that many demonstrators were feeling, protest leaders decided that a violent confrontation would likely result in a number of Thaksin supporters arrested and possibly even killed.
In what appears to be a well-calculated and better executed strategic maneuver, Prime Minister Abhisit took advantage of the precarious position in which the demonstrators found themselves, ordered the arrest of four protest leaders, and provided state-owned buses to shuttle the remaining protesters home.
Having regained control over his office and, more importantly, his country’s capital, Abhisit, along with his supporters, has managed to temporarily diffuse a potentially devastating political situation. The move, if exploited properly, may provide Abhisit with the domestic and international credibility to move the country away from its recent political state of flux and back towards its relatively recent status as a thriving democratic Southeast Asian economy.
Court Issues Arrest Warrant for Thaksin
Following the successful mediation at Government House, a Thai court has issued an arrest warrant against fugitive billionaire Thaksin Shinawatra and twelve other presumed protest leaders.
In addition to the outstanding charges against Thaksin that drove him into exile in 2006, the deposed leader now faces charges that he incited his followers to break the law and cause unrest, a crime punishable with seven years in jail.
The move will likely result in one of two possible scenarios. The first is that the charges will reignite the passion to protest that was smothered by yesterday’s departure from Government House. Red shirts will return to the streets and attempt to reoccupy Government House or gridlock the city as they have done before. Thaksin will cry foul louder still, motivate his supporters to return to the streets and fight for their ousted leader.
The other possible scenario is that the new charges will have the dampening effect that Abhisit and his supporters likely hope it will. Red shirts will feel defeated and demoralized by the new charges, further distancing the chances that Thaksin will be able to return to Thailand. Thaksin will stop communicating with his supporters remotely and reconsider his plan to return to Thailand.
Whatever the scenario, the outcome will depend on who – either Abhisit or Thaksin – turns out to be the stronger politician. Motivating their respective followers will likely determine whether Bangkok becomes the city of perpetual unrest, or whether it returns to the financial tiger it once was.
Outlook
Lacking the institutional support necessary to maintain a prolonged campaign against a sitting government, we believe that Thaksin and his red shirts have lost what momentum they once possessed. In the near-term, we expect some sporadic protests, but with far lower numbers than what we have witnessed previously. Red shirts may attempt to mount a renewed campaign sometime in the future, but until they find an equally charismatic advocate for the poor, one who has not been exiled, we do not expect the group to be able to institute the changes they have so desperately been fighting for these past several weeks.
