Highlights
-TTP threatens attacks in Pakistan due to US aerial drone attacks
-Mehsud has proven the TTP is capable of perpetuating additional attacks
-Pakistani government unlikely to counter the threat posed by the TTP in the near to medium-term
Following a weekend of violence, including a suicide bombing targeting a Shiite mosque in Chakwal city on April 5, 2009 and a suicide bombing targeting a paramilitary camp in Islamabad on April 4, 2009, Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) leader Baitullah Mehsud is threatening additional attacks against targets throughout Pakistan.
Mehud’s Intentions
Mehsud claims the United States’ (US) use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) is provoking him to conduct at least two attacks per week within Pakistan, referring to them as “revenge” attacks.
We believe Mehsud linking the use of aerial drones with additional attacks is indicative of the success the UAVs are having in not only pressuring Mehsud, but also killing several of his top lieutenants. Despite the threats, we do not believe the US will cease the use of aerial drones in targeting top al Qaeda and Pakistani Taliban leaders. As a result of their continued use, it is likely that Mehsud will fulfill his promise of conducting additional attacks in Pakistan, likely focusing on large-scale attacks outside of the tribal areas.
Mehsud’s Capabilities
Based in South Waziristan, Baitullah Mehsud has grown increasingly emboldened in recent months, claiming responsibility for several high-profile attacks in Pakistan and even issuing a threat against the White House. On April 1, Mehsud was quoted as saying, “Soon we will launch an attack in Washington that will amaze everyone in the world.”
Mehsud is unlikely to possess the resources or the global reach to successfully perpetuate an attack on the US mainland at this time. Yet, his comments suggest the militant leader is growing more aggressive. Despite his perceived inability to conduct large-scale attacks far outside of Pakistan, Mehsud and his TTP organization have proven their capabilities by attacking high-value targets in some of Pakistan’s most secure locations.
The March 30, 2009 combined small-arms assault in Lahore and the April 5, 2009 attack against the Shiite mosque illustrated TTP’s operational capabilities. As the TTP has already demonstrated its ability to mount attacks inside Pakistani cities, well beyond its base of operations in South Waziristan, we believe Mehsud will follow through with his threat to conduct two attacks per week.
Escalation in Violence
By linking additional attacks to the US use of drones, Mehsud is trying to influence the Pakistani government and people to abandon all support for the United States. While Mehsud is likely to succeed in generating increased opposition to Washington’s UAV strikes, we do not believe the US will cease drone operations in the near to medium-term. Nor do we assess the Pakistani government has any intention of severing relations with Washington.
Likely Targets
While Mehsud’s traditional operations are largely confined to Waziristan and the border districts/agencies in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), the TTP is likely to continue the recent trend of attacking major urban centers outside of the tribal areas.
As seen in previous attacks, the choices of targets are mixed, including both civilian and security infrastructure, complicating efforts by Pakistani security forces to counter the growing threat Mehsud poses. The TTP leader has proven able to attack a wide range of targets, including high-level events, well-secured government facilities, and religious infrastructure.
Despite enhanced security, we anticipate near to medium-term TTP suicide operations throughout Pakistan, particularly targeting Lahore and Islamabad. In the long-term, Mehsud’s capabilities are expected to continue growing, potentially fulfilling his intention to target the United States.
