Highlights
– Al-Qaeda members attack South Koreans in Yemen twice in three days
– Suicide bombers trained in Somalia, part of regional parent group al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula
– Al-Qaeda in Yemen continues to threaten foreigners and foreign economic interests in Yemen
Al-Qaeda in Yemen (AQY) suicide bombers attacked a group of South Korean tourists on March 15, 2009 and a South Korean convoy transporting the victims’ families and government officials on March 18 . The tourists were taking pictures in Shibam, a United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) World Heritage Site, when a young man asked to pose in a photo with the group. Seconds later, the 18-year-old suicide bomber detonated his explosives-laden vest. The blast killed four South Korean tourists and their Yemeni guide, and injured three others.
In the second attack, a 19-year-old suicide bomber on a motorbike detonated an explosive device as he approached a Korean convoy on its way to the airport. The convoy was carrying the family members of the tourist victims, as well as several South Korean government officials. The attacker miscalculated the timing of the detention, failing to destroy any of the passing vehicles. Both attacks demonstrate AQY’s ability to penetrate security measures at the tourist site and carry out consecutive attacks in a relatively short period of time, illustrating growth in the group’s capabilities and an improvement in its organizational skills.
AQY has not targeted South Koreans in Yemen in the past. With roughly 200 South Koreans currently living in Yemen, that community has never been a priority target for AQY. However, South Korea’s recent interest and investment in Yemeni oil has made it a viable target for AQY. Intelligence gathering from the recent attacks also shows the migration of al-Qaeda operatives in the region and their willingness to work towards a shared goal of expelling foreigners and foreign interests from their county. We believe similar attacks against foreigners, specifically those whose governments have an economic interest in Yemen, will continue to occur in the near to medium-term.
Regional Al-Qaeda Members Unite
The Ministry of Interior arrested 12 people linked to the March 15th attack, finding documents planning the bombing, as well as evidence indicating the young man was trained for the attack in Somalia. Given Somalia’s reputation as a terror-breeding safe haven and its close proximity to Yemen, it is likely that Somalia serves as a safe training camp for potential AQY members.
Al-Qaeda announced that Saudi Arabia and Yemeni militants joined forces several years ago. The Saudi Arabian al-Qaeda branch, known as al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), effectively became the parent organization of AQY. Since that time, a decline in AQAP’s organization and leadership left AQY fending for itself. In January 2009, al-Qaeda announced Said Ali al Shihri, a Saudi national who was recently released from Guantanamo Bay, is now the second-in-command of AQAP. Since the announcement, AQY and AQAP have reunited, recruiting fresh, young members at home and from neighboring countries, including Somalia. This method of recruitment and training abroad will continue. Now that the organization has reorganized itself, we expect further attacks against similar targets in the near to medium-term.
Foreign Economic Interests in Yemen Primary Targets
We suspect that AQY and its affiliates attacked the tourists because of South Korea’s recent investment in Yemeni oil. The Korea National Oil Corporation Yemen LT is a two-month old company that will allow South Korea to tap into Yemen’s resources. This has ushered in a new group of targets for AQY. South Koreans are not the traditional “Western” targets al-Qaeda has been attacking, but their interest in Yemeni oil has grouped them with other more traditional al-Qaeda targets. We believe foreign nationals and governments with a vested economic interest in Yemen will remain a primary target for AQY militants in the near to medium-term.
