Highlights
– Alleged explosives plot raises security concern for soft targets
– Police release seven suspects amid a lack of evidence
– Growing political debate on the role of Islam in the multicultural Dutch society to increase probability of militant attacks
Dutch law enforcement and intelligence agencies are faced with a growing threat from Islamic fundamentalism and radicalization in segregated communities of North African origin. In the past few years, several Dutch Islamic militants have been jailed for planning terrorist attacks in the Netherlands. Despite the presence of this threat, the increasingly polarized country has so far avoided a large-scale attack similar to that of Spain’s Madrid train bombings and Britain’s Tube bombings. A recent investigation into an alleged terror plot in Amsterdam is further evidence soft targets in the Netherlands remain a common security vulnerability in future terror plots.
Alleged Plot in Amsterdam
On March 13, 2009 an anonymous phone call from an unregistered cell phone in Belgium informed Dutch police three people were planning to target a major department store in southeast Amsterdam with explosives. Dutch police arrested seven people, all Dutch-Moroccans, searched houses in the Dutch capital and ordered the closing of a major entertainment and shopping district near the Ajax football stadium. Belgium police also searched several houses. Authorities claimed the tip was unique, in that it provided names, addresses, and warned the alleged conspirators wanted to cause maximum casualties in busy areas.
Police released all seven suspects a day later after finding no evidence linked to terrorist activity. Among those freed, one suspect is related to an Islamic extremist who blew himself up in 2004 as police raided an apartment while investigating the Madrid train attacks. Police are still searching for the suspect who provided the information from Belgium. The threat of a terror attack remains at “substantial”, the second highest level on a four level scale.
Political Debate Fuels Immigrant Militancy
In the near-term, police will likely maintain a strong presence in the shopping area closed last week. As demonstrated by counterterrorism initiatives in the United Kingdom and the United States, we believe Dutch law enforcement anti-terror officials will seek to harden soft targets against a copy-cat styled attack similar to the November 2008 Mumbai terror attacks.
Dutch officials claim the country is consistently referenced in terrorist chatter abroad over anti-Islam politics and the controversial short anti-Islam film, Fitna. We believe the country’s growing debate over the role of Islam in its multicultural society will continue to polarize the country, thereby increasing the probability for a militant attack in the near-term. With the country’s rapidly growing Muslim immigrant community trapped between crime and poverty, the Netherlands will continue to be a fertile recruiting ground for homegrown and international terror groups in the near-term.
