Highlights
– Operation Cast Lead did little to alter Hamas’ standing in Gaza
– Unemployment remains debilitating, creating fertile ground for recruitment
– With no willing or able alternative in Gaza, Hamas remains as influential as before
On December 19, 2008, a six-month truce between Hamas and Israel ended. One week later, Israeli forces entered the Gaza Strip and began Operation Cast Lead, an effort to end rocket fire into southern Israel. After twenty-two days of fighting, the Palestinian Center for Human Rights claimed 1,417 people had been killed, 926 of which were civilians.
Israeli figures for the death toll dispute the Palestinian figures, stating that 1,200 people were killed, the majority of whom were men of fighting age. Whatever the true numbers, over one and a half million people remain in the area and Hamas continues to be the sole governing authority left in the Gaza Strip.
Though isolated, unrecognized internationally, and largely ill equipped to begin the rebuilding process, Hamas remains the principal provider of health care, social welfare, and religious and educational services in the territory. With a semi-effective underground economy – due largely to the intricate tunnel network with Egypt – the recent onslaught has failed to destroy Hamas as either a political or terroristic entity.
Caffeinated and Indoctrinated
Following Operation Cast Lead, and the two years of isolation that Gaza has faced since Hamas won parliamentary election in 2006, the territory has experienced a massive brain drain as economic opportunities and development have dried up.
Of those Gazans who did not have the finances or ability to manage a permit to leave the territory, many remain out of work. Prior to the recent conflict, unemployment had reached as high as 43 percent in Gaza. We expect that number has since increased markedly.
In an attempt to provide work for Fatah members remaining in the Gaza Strip, the group has sent funds to a number of its recruits. Specifically, the group has funneled money to supporters in Gaza in an attempt to keep them from participating in a Hamas-led administration. The result has been an explosion of neighborhood coffee houses.
The young, including recent graduates and those continuing their studies, spend much of their time at the many coffee houses that have been set up in Gaza. While Fatah may be attempting to slowly reestablish itself in the Gaza Strip, reaching out to idle youth, the group’s limited presence in the region will likely preclude a strong presence in Hamas territory for the near term.
With little educational or economic opportunity for so many young, restless males, and no opposition group willing or able to provide an opposing alternative, the entirety of the Gaza Strip remains fertile recruiting ground for additional fighters to Hamas.
Forecast
Hamas receives some funding from Iran, but primarily relies on donations from Palestinian expatriates around the world and private benefactors in moderate Arab states. These donations, coupled with the tunnels that support the area’s underground economy, will continue to support the organization for the near to medium-term.
With poverty in the Gaza Strip affecting 65 percent of the population, roughly one million people, and Hamas as the only genuine provider of aid to those afflicted, there is little reason to believe the group will lose major public support in the near term. As long as the Israeli blockade continues, the group will be able to apportion much of the blame for worsening conditions in the Gaza Strip on Israel.
Hamas may not have improved militarily, acquired many more advanced rockets or launching systems, or even improved its public image as a result of the recent conflict, but neither did the group appear to lose support or end up much worse off than it was before. Hamas, for the time being, remains the only governing body that the people of Gaza have, and for that reason alone, the group will endure.
