Highlights
– President Zardari reinstates Chaudhry as Chief Justice
– Prime Minister Gilani and Nawaz Sharif empowered over crisis
– President Zardari’s ability to command and govern now in question
On March 15, 2009, President Asif Ali Zardari’s government avoided a major confrontation with Pakistan Muslim League – Nawaz (PML-N) head Nawaz Sharif by agreeing to reinstate fired Supreme Court Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry. The future of Chaudhry has been a major concern for Sharif, who himself was recently barred from participating in government over corruption charges.
Since joining a coalition with President Zardari’s Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), Sharif has demanded that Chaudhry be reinstated. Zardari’s reluctance to do so sparked the latest political crisis, resulting in widespread civil unrest throughout Pakistan’s major cities.
The announcement by Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani that Chaudhry would be sworn back in on March 21, 2009 is a major blow to President Zardari and signals a historic victory for Pakistan’s lawyers’ movement, which has become increasingly vocal in recent years. While Zardari has promised to reinstate Chaudhry in the past only to rescind the decision, we believe the latest promise by Zardari and Gilani to bring back the Chief Justice will be fulfilled. By reinstating Chaudhry, severe levels of political and social instability have been avoided, but political conflict between Sharif, Gilani, and Zardari will likely to remain in the near to medium-term.
Forcing Reinstatement
Gilani’s announcement followed intense negotiations with opposition Sharif and his followers. Sharif refused to compromise from the primary reason behind the collapse of the coalition government between the PPP and PML-N last year. Reinstating Chaudhry was the central issue for his formidable opposition to Zardari, allowing him to often compare Zardari’s policies to those of Pervez Musharraf.
By Sunday night, Zardari was forced into compromise in order to avoid sending the country into further chaos. Two of his cabinet ministers quit in recent days, a ban on a major news station was only being partly enforced by satellite-TV providers, and security forces were not enforcing Zardari’s demands to keep Sharif under house arrest. Sharif was able to lead thousands of government opponents toward the capital, ultimately forcing Zardari to concede.
By caving to the demands of Sharif, the political dynamics in Pakistan have shifted. Sharif’s PML-N, the Jamaat-i-Islami, and Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf have established themselves as decisive forces ready to challenge Zardari’s power. The reinstatement of Chaudhry is a political victory for Sharif in which he is likely to maneuver himself into a position of more power and influence within the government. However, before this could take place, the government would have to rescind the Supreme Court decision that barred Sharif and his brother from holding elected office. We expect this decision in the next two months.
A Weakened President
We note the significance in Prime Minister Gilani making the announcement regarding Chief Justice Chaudhry reinstatement. Gilani played a key role in orchestrating a deal to prevent the crisis from spreading into mass unrest and is likely to take over leadership of his party and country from a defanged Zardari. Prime Minister Gilani came out on top in this crisis, followed to some extent by Army Chief General Ashfaq Kiyani. Despite Kiyani’s intervention in the politics behind the crisis, we maintain the view that Kiyani remains opposed to taking a more proactive role in government.
Zardari’s position is untenable. We expect Sharif to position himself to better challenge Zardari, forcing his resignation. Yet, when that occurs, the most likely candidate to replace him will not be Sharif, but Prime Minister Gilani.
