Highlights
– Egyptian army cadets clashed with policemen in southern Cairo
– The retaliatory attack came after a police officer arrested and allegedly abused a cadet a few days earlier
– Army cadets and police officers are the two most powerful institutions in Egypt; their recent clash will likely lead to an increase in social and political unrest in the near to medium-term
On March 9, 2008, a group of Egyptian army cadets charged a police station in Helwan, a southern suburb of Cairo. The clash left at least five policemen and three cadets injured (Unrest Incident). The attack came after a local police chief arrested a cadet on March 5 for loitering on a street corner and refusing to show any identification. The officer took the cadet to the police station, where policemen allegedly beat him and held him overnight. After his release, the cadet and his fellow recruits surrounded the station, chanting anti-police insults and throwing firecrackers and stones. The police fired gunshots in retaliation, wounding three cadets.
Egypt is largely run as a security state. Many Egyptians are reluctant to stage mass protests because of the popular notion that state security officers are “above the law.” We are concerned over the repercussions of such a break in the status quo, should the issue escalate into further violence. We are also concerned over the potential for increased unrest and unruly behavior, should the populace begin to loose faith in the authority of the security forces. Recent events may be the impetus for Egyptians to take to the streets despite their pre-existing fear of strong government reprisals. Should mass protests follow, the government will be hard pressed to maintain its current hold on domestic stability.
Extent of Chaos in Egypt
Although there is a history of tension between police officers and military forces, rarely has that tension escalated into violence. Power struggles have occurred in the past, but mostly resulted in bureaucratic bickering between the two. Civil society generally fears police officers – mostly for their reputation of torture and abuse – while military cadets are more respected for their service. After the March 9th incident, however, Egyptians may begin to lose faith in the military as well.
The confrontation illustrates the extent of disorder in Egypt, where even army cadets, known for their discipline and restraint, can behave like a mob. It also indicates the extent of resentment many Egyptians, including members of the armed forces, feel toward the police in Egypt. A number of factors likely contributed to the severity of the recent security clash, particularly low wages for newly hired soldiers and poor conditions within the army.
The government, as well as the army, did not respond to the clashes, except to restrict the publication of any details concerning the incident. It will be difficult to suppress much of the incident, as a bystander posted mobile phone footage of the clash on a blog campaigning against police brutality and corruption. As many Egyptians have campaigned and called for protests over the Internet, and social networking blogs are gaining popularity in Egypt, it is highly likely that many Egyptians, especially the youth, will be provoked by the video footage of the clash. The incident will likely raise further awareness of worsening social conditions in the Egypt.
More Violent Unrest on the Horizon
Civil unrest is on the rise in Egypt. Security forces clashing with police will likely add to the deteriorating conditions. The security presence in Egypt is essential to maintain law and order. Should Egyptians start to fear the police and security forces less, they will be more inclined to stage protests, thereby increasing the level of political unrest in the country.
Egypt’s preoccupation with geo-political events in the region has left the country absent of any real problem-solving mechanisms at home. If the government continues to occupy itself with pressing regional conflicts and neglects to effectively address the nation’s dire socio-economic crisis, there will likely be more violent unrest in the near to medium-term.
