Highlights
– Car accident kills Prime Minister Tsvangirai’s wife
– Accident comes less than a month after Tsvangirai formed a unity government with President Robert Mugabe
– Tsvangirai publicly claimed the car crash was accidental, however, political motives are still being dissected
On March 6, 2009, Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai and his wife, Susan Tsvangirai, were traveling together in the south of Harare when a truck sideswiped the Prime Minister’s vehicle, killing Mrs. Tsvangirai and injuring the Prime Minister. There is no evidence suggesting foul play or malicious intent behind the incident. Despite Tsvangirai’s claims, his party, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), remains skeptical about the authenticity of the accident, as political tensions soared in recent months over a fragile power-sharing deal. After months of struggle, Tsvangirai and the MDC formed a unity government with President Robert Mugabe at the end of February (Previous Report).
MDC members believe some element of Mugabe’s ruling party, Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF), may be behind the accident since the crash occurred just two days after Tsvangirai delivered his inaugural speech to the parliament after being sworn in as prime minister. Zimbabweans are concerned over the repercussions of the incident. Resentful over the power-sharing agreement, ZANU-PF party members may use this mourning period to reorganize a campaign against the MDC. The nation’s morale is also at its lowest in years, which could raise the potential for civil unrest in the near to medium-term. We anticipate the recent incident will add more political turmoil to the nation’s grievances in the near term.
National Woes and Tense Relations
The new government faces an array of problems, including food and fuel shortages, massive hyperinflation, and a large-scale cholera outbreak – which has infected nearly 88,000 people and killed 4,000 others according to the World Health Organization. Zimbabwe’s worsening economic woes caused army soldiers – angry over unpaid wages – to riot through the streets in December 2008 (Unrest Incident).
Refusing to step down after facing election defeat and serious international pressure, President Mugabe agreed to a power-sharing deal in September 2008 (Previous Report). Zimbabweans and Western governments are hoping the new administration can deliver political stability, but relations between the MDC and the ZANU-PF remain tense.
The MDC ministerial nominee Roy Bennett, who was accused of links to a conspiracy to assassinate President Mugabe, is still in custody, and police arrested a magistrate who ordered for his release on March 6th. MDC members believe the arrest, which happened on the day MDC ministers joined the unity government, is a political maneuver by hard-line Mugabe supporters to destabilize the new administration.
Civil Unrest Increases in Near to Medium-Term
With no sign of appeasing political and social tensions, we believe civil unrest will increase in the near to medium-term. MDC’s “foul-play” accusations regarding Tsvangirai’s allegedly “staged” car accident intensified friction between the two parties and will likely slow the power-sharing government process in the near-term.
Zimbabwe’s declining economy and continuing cholera crisis proceeds to affect the vast majority of civil society and Zimbabwe’s neighbors. Until tensions simmer between the two parties and the unity government establishes its ruling authority, socio-economic conditions will worsen and potentially breakout in civil unrest in the near to medium-term.
