Highlights
– Mullah Omar calls for unity between Afghan and Pakistani Taliban
– Taliban leader wants an end to indiscriminate killing in Pakistan
– Afghan and Pakistani Taliban expected to increase cooperation for annual spring offensive
On March 5, 2009 an unknown group of militants bombed the mausoleum of renowned Pashto poet Abdur Rehman Baba just outside of Peshawar in Pakistan’s North-West Frontier Province (NWFP). Pakistani media outlets have called the bombing “an attack on Sufism.” The attack destroyed Baba’s grave and badly damaged the mausoleum, echoing one of the Afghan Taliban’s most infamous acts of ‘cultural cleansing’, when the group destroyed twin 1,500-year-old Buddha statues in Bamiyan in 2001.
Suspicion surrounding the most recent incident has fallen on the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) organization or the Afghan Taliban, but there is reason to believe the attack did not have the support of Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar.
Mullah Omar recently issued a letter wherein he called on Islamists operating in Pakistan to cease fighting. Omar is ordering pro-Taliban groups in Pakistan to begin focusing on the Afghanistan jihad, specifically targeting North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) forces. We believe Mullah Omar’s letter was part of a larger strategic attempt to unite both the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban to concentrate and ready forces for the annual spring offensive in Afghanistan. The expected arrival of 17,000 more United States (US) troops is likely to embolden Omar in his calls for Taliban forces to unite and shift focus to southern Afghanistan, where most of the new troops are expected to be stationed.
The Letter
The Guardian claimed to have received part of Mullah Omar’s letter, which reportedly stated:
“Attacks on the Pakistani security forces and killing of fellow Muslims by the militants in the tribal areas and elsewhere in Pakistan is bringing a bad name to Mujahideen and harming the war against the U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan.”
Following Omar’s letter, the Taliban leader reportedly sent envoys to the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) to discuss a potential shift in focus with Pakistani Taliban leaders based in the area. While Pakistani Taliban leaders, including the infamous Baitullah Mehsud based in South Waziristan, have pledged support and loyalty to Mullah Omar, we do not expect to see a dramatic shift in focus by the TTP leaders to the Afghan theater.
The letter followed a recent decision made by three senior Pakistani Taliban leaders in North and South Waziristan to put aside their differences to unite for war in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and the US. In addition to Baitullah Mehsud, North Waziristan leader Hafiz Gul Bahadar and South Waziristan leader Mullah Nazir created a Council of United Mujahideen and openly supported both Osama bin Laden and Mullah Omar in their goal of global jihad.
The move by FATA-based Taliban leaders is indicative of a change in strategy. While the decision was meant to establish a unified organization to enhance effectiveness in combating Afghan, Pakistani, and NATO forces, the move also may indicate that the three leaders understand unity is needed for survival. The surge in Afghanistan, several Pakistani military offensives in the tribal regions, and continued US drone air strikes are having a crippling effect on the TTP’s operational capabilities and ability to move freely in the tribal areas. A unified Taliban organization in northwest Pakistan that swears allegiance to Osama bin Laden and Omar would increase the operational effectiveness of the TTP for the near to medium-term in the wars in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Goals and Unity
The letter issued by Mullah Omar to Pakistani Taliban leaders is indicative of the Afghan Taliban’s growing concern with the tactics employed by Baitullah Mehsud and other Waziristan-based leaders. Omar has stated on several occasions the killing of fellow Muslims negatively impacts the image of the movement and harms the Taliban’s overall goals.
We believe the primary motivation for the letter is to unite the Taliban movement in time for the spring offensive and the arrival of additional US troops. Omar has always believed the primary focus of the movement should be attacking NATO forces operating in Afghanistan. The new partnership in Waziristan and loyalty toward Mullah Omar will likely result in a slight increase in the flow of cross-border fighters and suicide bombers.
Despite the creation of the Council of United Mujahideen and pledge of loyalty to Omar, the TTP movement in northwest Pakistan is plagued by divisions, threatening to fracture the organization into warring factions. While their worldviews are similar, the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban have different near-term goals, primarily in terms of priorities on where to wage jihad. We do anticipate increased cooperation between the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban in the near to medium-term, primarily in terms facilitating the movements of militants across the Afghan-Pakistan border. However, Mehsud and other Waziristan-based leaders are unlikely to cease attacks in Pakistan.
The Pakistani Taliban’s unwillingness to end attacks in Pakistan, and its larger objective of overthrowing the central government in Islamabad, will likely result in medium to long-term divisions and disagreement, potentially affecting the group’s ability to implement large-scale attacks. We expect an intense and fierce beginning to the Taliban’s annual spring offensive, especially as NATO is likely to employ a more aggressive and confrontational strategy in the south.
