Highlights
– FARC Secretariat Jose de Jesus “Gaitan” Guzman killed in military raid
– Former ‘Mono Jojoy’ camp discovered after five year search
– “Plan Rebirth” will remain a threat, despite recent military successes in the near to medium-term
The Colombian army indicated that Jose de Jesus “Gaitan” Guzman, the alleged leader of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia’s (FARC) ‘Antonio Narino’ commander group, was killed in a raid on February 28, 2009. Guzman was also the communications boss of the Eastern Bloc, a faction of FARC.
The capture of ‘El Negro Antonio’ commanders group and the death of Guzman, as well as the army’s recent discovery of the former base of ‘Mono Jojoy’ in Meta, constitutes the third military success against the FARC during the week of February 23, 2008. Despite these successes, FARC will remain a significant threat to the Colombian government, especially as the group continues to take actions in accordance with its “Plan Rebirth”.
Mono Jojoy
On February 28, 2009, Colombian media outlets reported that the Colombian armed forces discovered a jungle camp that served as the home base to ‘Mono Jojoy,’ one of the seven FARC secretariats. The camp was located primarily in caves in the La Macarena region of the Meta province, southeast of Bogota. They were stocked with ammunitions and medical supplies. The Armed Forces indicated that federal forces had been searching for the camp for five years.
• Defense Minister Juan Manuel Santos, a presidential candidate for the upcoming 2010 elections, announced to a group of reporters in Bogota that the FARC “used to feel safe. . . Now they are living in caves they use to hide away.”
“Plan Rebirth”
Despite the Colombian military’s successes against the FARC, especially throughout 2008, the FARC and its new leader Alonso Cano, from the ideological wing of the organization, launched a new tactic they call “Plan Rebirth.”
Mention of the plan was first discovered in October 2008, when security forces captured several laptop computers and memory sticks from a raid on FARC principals. The new rebel strategy of Plan Rebirth, includs plans to:
• Increase urban attacks;
• Wage a war of attrition on two fronts – both militarily and economic;
• Build up finances through extortion and drug-trafficking;
• Expend more effort on political indoctrination to counter growing desertion;
• Consolidate territorial control, particularly in the areas where drugs crops are grown;
• Launch a campaign of political work, both nationally and internationally, to recover lost ground and increase followers, particularly in urban areas.
Although the FARC has decreased to around 8,000 members from more than double that in 2002, the rebel group has managed to conduct four bomb attacks already during 2009. Pundits are beginning to ponder the groups resurgence.
Defense Minister Santos argued to local media outlets that Plan Rebirth “seeks to give the sensation, through terrorist acts, that the FARC is still alive and kicking” but does not represent the true state of the organization.
Rebels have increased their extortion demands and have attacked those that do not pay.
• On February 24, 2009, two people were killed when a bomb exploded at a Blockbuster in an upscale area of Bogota. The victims were a young female and a Blockbuster employee. The blast also destroyed eight vehicles and damaged more than a dozen nearby buildings. Authorities said the store was apparently targeted after its owners refused to pay extortion money to the FARC.
Outlook
It is likely that the Colombian military will continue to gain advantages over the FARC in the near to medium-term. We do not forsee the fall or disappearance of the rebel organization in the near-term. The organization continues to display its ability to conduct operations, even in cities. We assess that the new FARC leader, Alfonso Cano, will likely remain focused on the political ideology the organization was founded to garner in the long-term. Additionally, we believe that Plan Rebirth will likely be a catalyst to unite remaining FARC members for increased operations throughout 2009.
