Highlights
-Student groups are committed to continue protests despite police force
-Attorney General’s Office determines government polls “fraudulent”
-February 15, 2009 term limit referendum likely to fail
Mainstream media reported on January 15, 2009, that the Venezuelan National Assembly gave final approval to President Hugo Chavez’s referendum to revoke term-limits on the presidency, as well as all other elected positions. The vote passed with an overwhelming majority, however, the Venezuelan public remains extremely divided over the reforms. A strong “No Vote” campaign, largely headed by student groups, has coordinated marches and protests across the state to combat the referendum that they argue is unconstitutional.
Chavez supporters and police have come into violent conflict with opposition groups in recent weeks and it is likely that the trend will continue in the near-term, as the February 15, 2009 referendum approaches. Although polls regarding the general consensus vary, we predict that the referendum will fail as it did in 2007.
Background
Chavez initially proposed the referendum in November 2008 after “Chavista” candidates won a majority of the municipal elections in the state, indicating the scale of his influence in the region. In mid-December 2008, at the initial National Assembly debates over the referendum, Chavez supporters held a large rally in Caracas and allegedly submitted approximately 4.7 million signatures to legislative offices in support of the vote.
However, opposition groups have also turned out it great numbers, in a bloc campaign for the “No Vote.” The opposition’s main concern is that the referendum is unconstitutional, as Chavez, in December 2007, lost a similar vote to rewrite 69 articles of the Constitution, including measures to abolish term limits; the Venezuelan Constitution establishes that a bill can only be submitted once in a presidential term of office.
Student Opposition
Student groups are widely organized against Chavez and have coordinated relentless protests, marches and demonstrations in efforts to thwart the referendum. Students have confronted the National Electoral Council (CNE) to adjust voter rolls to allow recently turned 18-year-olds to register to vote and have attempted to coordinate marches to the Supreme Court offices.
On January 20, 2009, in Caracas, thousands of students from public and private universities across the state protested with the campaign slogan “NO” painted on their hands and waived signs in protest.
While student organizations commonly attempt non-violent protest, violent clashes between them, Chavez supporters and security forces are common during demonstrations. Student leaders claim that they aim to defend the constitution and argue that the government continues to wrongfully accuse them of being violently motivated, while they state police forces “try to stir up trouble.”
Several hundred students were diverted away from the Supreme Court on January 20, 2009 to streets surrounding the nearby Brion Square where police used tear gas, rubber bullets and pressurized water jets to repel them, as they were instructed to do so by President Chavez.
The government accuses students of being “fascists” bent on “destabilizing” democracy and the nation and often imply that the youths are “spoiled brats of rich parents.” However, despite heavy police retaliations against the groups, student leaders have announced that the marches and demonstrations will persist, arguing that they have the “right to express their disagreement with the Supreme Court.” One student leader in Caracas stated:
“We could not rally at Morelos Square because there were armed groups. Then, I wonder why the state security corps…attack white-handed students instead of armed gangs.”
Additionally, the Movement Towards Socialism (MAS), initially in support of Chavez after he was first elected in 1999 has since become an opposition group that rejects what is views is the government’s attempt to “criminalize popular protest.”
Polls
Although the majority of public opinion polls in Venezuela maintain that voters are still uncomfortable with the referendum, independent surveys remain varied for both sides. Currently, polls from Datanalisis determine that 52.1 percent of voters reject the referendum, will 37.7 percent support it, while 70 percent of the “Ni Ni”, or undecided vote, are inclined to reject the amendments. However, native conversationalists argue that the poll does not include opinions regarding the recent extension of re-election rights to all elected officials.
In contrast, the Chavez government released reports from the Venezuelan Institute for Data Analysis (Ivad) and the 21st Century Research Group, stating that trends favor the amendment by nearly 10 points. However, The Attorney General’s Office announced on January 26, 2009 that these results were “fraudulent.”
Outcome
Polls indicate that the President’s popularity has decreased in recent months. When gas prices peaked in July 2007, Chavez increased social spending by 26 percent. However, due to the global economic crisis and the reduction in global demand for oil, it is likely that Venezuela will not be able to support the budget expansion in the mid to long-term, a major component for Chavez supporters.
The United Socialist Party (PSUV) will likely continue to back Chavez in the near-term. However, we determine that popular opinion in Venezuela believes that PSUV supports the President due to the fact that there is “no one else” to lead and they fear a civil war in his absence. Although Chavez lost the referendum in 2007 by a narrow vote of 51 to 49 percent, we believe that it is likely Chavez will lose the referendum by an even greater margin on February 15, 2009.
