Highlights
-Rwandan troops capture Congo’s most powerful rebel leader, Laurent Nkunda – longtime Rwandan allay
-Tutsi rebels had grown disenchanted by Nkunda, regarded as an “authoritarian megalomaniac”
-Mixed emotions have stemmed from Nkunda’s arrest: some hope it will usher in a new era of peace, while many fear it is a risky gamble that could renew hostilities in the war torn central Africa region
On January 22, 2009, in a surprising reversal of alliances, Rwandan troops marched in solidarity with Congolese troops and converged on Laurent Nkunda’s stronghold in the small town of Bunagana on the Ugandan border to arrest him. The former rebel leader has been sympathetic to the Congolese Tutsi and a longtime ally to the Tutsi-dominated government of Rwanda. However, Rwanda detained Nkunda last week as part of an alleged agreement with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which opened the way for thousands of Rwandan soldiers to cross the border in a joint operation to hunt down Rwandan Hutu militiamen. The DRC welcomed the surprise arrest, in hopes that it would indicate a new era of peace and mark the end of the central African nation’s Tutsi rebellion. However, few believe the country’s problems are over and many fear the unprecedented and unpopular deal with former enemy Rwanda is a risky gamble that could lead to more violent unrest in the near to mid-term.
Reversal of Alliance
Since Rwanda’s 1994 genocide, which killed over 800,000 people and spilled war into the DRC, the region has been entangled in conflict. As a result of the genocide, Hutu militants sought refuge in the DRC. However, the militia’s presence gave birth in 2004 to Nkunda’s rebellion, whose raison d’etre was defending minority Tutsis against Rwandan Hutus.
Nkunda’s political and military career began during the Rwandan Genocide, when he joined the Tutsi Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) who fought against the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), the military of the genocidal Hutu-led government. After the RPF defeated the FDLR, Nkudna has always fought alongside the Tutsi-led Rwandan government against the Hutu militias in the DRC.
Nevertheless, Nkunda drew international attention late last year after his forces advanced to the outskirts of the regional capital, Goma, forcing more than 250,000 people from their homes. According to local news sources, Rwanda was under immense international pressure to use its influence over the Tutsi rebellion to end the crisis.
Moreover, supporting rebels have grown disenchanted by Nkunda, who they increasingly regarded as a “flippant, authoritarian megalomaniac,” and is believed to have allegedly “embezzled money from rebel coffers.” Growing discontent with the rebel leader ultimately resulted in Nkunda’s arrest last Thursday. Rwandan troops turned on him as part of a breakthrough deal that included 4,000 Rwandan soldiers entering the DRC to hunt down Hutu militants. The Rwandan government assures that Nkunda is safe and not in prison, however, the outcome of the leader’s arrest could result in devastating consequences from his loyal supporters.
Potential For More Bloodshed Increased
The expulsion of Nkunda may have removed Congolese President Joseph Kabila’s main internal enemy and allowed the central government to take back large portions of previously held rebel territory, however, inviting Rwanda into the DRC is a huge political risk that could seriously endanger and destabilize the country. Rwandan troops are largely unpopular after occupying the eastern province from 1998 – 2002, along with Uganda.
A number of international aid group warn Rwanda’s fierce army could also provoke similar retaliatory attacks by Hutu militias, and civilians could die in the crossfire of any new violence. Ultimately, if the Rwandan troops can put a significant dent in the FDLR leadership, then the chances of stabilizing the eastern province look promising. However, if operations lead to more unrest of the local population, with Rwandans still present and the Tutsi rebels not integrated into the area, the DRC will have a hard time justifying the operation and will likely lead to more renewed violence in the near term.
