Highlights
-Taliban and other Islamic militants escalate attacks on female education institutions and other Western influences
-Violence in Swat Valley threatening the stability of Pakistan
-Further violence expected despite promise by Pakistani military to crackdown on militants
As the war in southern Afghanistan intensifies and increased focus is being placed on Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) as a major haven for Taliban and al Qaeda militants, the violence occurring in Swat Valley until recently has been largely ignored.
The United States (US) and coalition countries operating in Afghanistan have demanded on a number of occasions Pakistan to further crackdown on militants operating in the semiautonomous tribal areas, sparking Islamabad’s latest offensive in Bajaur Agency and increased fighting along the border of Mohmand Agency. However, for Pakistan, instability or the complete loss of Swat Valley could prove more devastating if not addressed immediately.
Swat Valley has nearly 1.3 million residents and is within approximately 100 miles from Peshawar, Rawalpindi, and Islamabad. After more than a year of fighting, nearly the entire Valley is under Taliban control, representing the militants’ farthest advanced eastward into Pakistan and threatening the stability of the Pakistani state. However, the Taliban’s latest offensive in Swat Valley targeting girls’ schools and other Western influences has proven even more troublesome and may potentially spread to other parts of the country.
Until recently, the 11-month old civilian government of President Asif Ali Zardari has virtually ignored the violence and rapid decline of law and order in Swat Valley. In the near-term, the security presence in Swat Valley is expected to rise. However, with the Taliban having firm control over the area, fighting is likely to intensify with the government unlikely to achieve its desired results and goals in the near to mid-term.
Targeting Girls’ Schools
The latest “reign of terror” is being spearheaded by radical cleric Maulana Fazlullah. Local Taliban leaders often use portable radio transmitters to relay their message across Swat Valley. Residents of Swat Valley are being threatened against participating in “un-Islamic” activities, including selling DVDs, watching cable television, singing and dancing, criticizing the Taliban, shaving beards, and allowing girls to attend school.
Despite all the activities deemed “un-Islamic”, it has been the Taliban’s campaign targeting girls’ schools that has caught the attention of the Pakistani government. Over the past two years, the Taliban and other Islamic militants have attacked more than 170 schools in Swat Valley, mostly for girls. However, the number of attacks has grown significantly following the January 15, 2009 deadline set by militants demanding an end to classes for girls above Grade 4. Taliban militants threatened to blow up any schools that violate the ban.
In the near-term, we are likely to see a temporary decline in the number of schools attacked, primarily because students in Swat Valley are on vacation until March 1, 2009. NWFP officials stated that girls’ schools would remain open despite the Taliban threat. The likely decline in attacks and the fact students are currently on vacation will provide the government enough time to formulate a strategy to protect the schools located throughout Swat Valley. However, any strategy or attempt by Islamabad to establish control in Swat will result in increased violence and instability in the near-term, but is needed to create long-term peace and stability.
Formulating a Strategy
Recent actions by Taliban militants have largely made a mockery of the government’s attempts and pledges to protect schools and other infrastructure around Swat Valley. On January 24, 2009 the government deployed troops to guard specific institutions in Mingora, the Valley’s main town. However, putting nearly 25 soldiers each at 16 locations is hardly a committed and effective effort to stem Taliban-led violence.
The situation in Swat Valley has gotten so bad that Haji Adeel, a senator and senior leader of the Awami National Party, which heads the ruling coalition in the NWFP, recently stated that no governor, chief minister or the prime minster can travel to the area.
The military has reportedly begun implementing a new strategy, one that focuses more on consolidating and securing main supply routes, urban, and rural areas by deploying additional troops. The Army currently has four brigades in Swat and is preparing to secure Mingora and its outer-perimeters. If stability and peace is going to be restored in Swat, the Army must play a larger role, as the local police force has been largely ineffective.
Stabilizing Swat Valley
Since the beginning of the military operation in 2007, the security situation in Swat Valley has gone from bad to worse. According to Prime Minister Yousuf Gilani, the use of military action must be accompanied by a political strategy. However, before an effective political strategy can be employed, peace and stability need to be restored, most likely by military force.
Current political divisions and low morale among security forces operating in Swat Valley will negatively impact the country’s efforts to stem rising violence. Fazlullah, who reportedly has thousands militants under his command, represents a clear national security threat and is unlikely to be subdued easily. The Taliban remain firmly in control of large swathes of Swat Valley and will continue enforcing their strict version of Islamic Law.
While we anticipate additional troops and security forces deployed to Swat Valley, the near-term consequence will be increased violence targeting the military and police, as well as the traditional targets, such as schools. Fazlullah and his force of Taliban militants are unlikely to be pushed out of Swat Valley in the near to mid-term, continuing to threaten the stability of Swat and the cities within close proximity, including Islamabad.
