Highlights
– Ethiopian troops have completely withdrawn from Somalia
– Al-Shabaab militants enter Mogadishu 24 hours after Ethiopian troops withdraw
– Concerns grow over another militant Islamist rule over Mogadishu, situation in Somalia will worsen in the near to mid-term, as militant group will employ strict Sharia Law over capital city
On January 15, 2009, Ethiopia withdrew the last of its remaining troops from Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu. The pullout is part of a general Ethiopian withdrawal from Somalia that began on January 12, 2009. However, the United States (US)-designated terrorist organization and al-Qaeda affiliated group, al Shabaab, took over the vacated capital less than 24-hours after the troops departed. Capturing abandoned bases, al Shabaab militants spread their presence over the capital. Locals voiced their concern to nearby media channels stating that the move recalled the actions of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) in December 2006, when militants defeated the ruling warlords and overtook the capital (Previous Report).
Although some Somalis hope the withdrawal will lead to a more unified and effective government, others fear the power vacuum will trigger increased fighting among insurgent groups that battled the Ethiopians. With the take over by al Shabaab militants and other affiliated Islamist groups, it is likely that the political and social environment will worsen in the coming months. In the near term, Islamist groups will likely battle over territorial gains and gradually shift their focus to spreading Islamic Sharia law throughout Somalia in the mid-term.
Recalling the Islamic Courts Union
In a move similar to when Islamic Courts Union (ICU) militants captured Mogadishu two years ago, al Shabaab militants swept in quickly after Ethiopia withdrew the last of its troops. At least seven people were killed in the Lower Shabelle region on January 15, 2009 in fighting between a local militia and the most prominent insurgent group, al-Shabaab. Following the takeover, al-Shabaab said it will now focus its attacks on African Union peacekeepers based in Mogadishu, as the group stands firm against any foreign presence in Somalia.
However, al-Shabaab is not alone in this new leadership position. Local reports show that fragments of the ICU are also involved in the takeover and are holding their own former Ethiopian bases as hubs. According to one ICU spokesman, “Our forces have taken control of areas deserted by the Ethiopians in order to maintain security.” If both groups decide early on that they are working towards the same goal, it is likely that they will engage in a power-sharing agreement in the mid-term. However, in the near-term, we expect that the groups may clash over territorial gains.
The Weak Becomes Weaker
The Transitional Federal Government (TFG) has been unable to fight back the militants and has effectively retreated to it headquarters in Baidoa. In the coming months, as al-Shabaab militants and ICU members battle over leadership and territorial domains, it is likely that the TFG will seek international help from agencies, such as the United Nations and the African Union, to ward off the militants and return to its previous home base in Mogadishu. However, violence and instability in Somalia will continue for the near to mid-term. Militants will likely use this time to recruit more fighters into their midst as part of their campaign to spread the rule of Islamic Sharia law and to rid their country of any foreign presence.
