Highlights
– Defying analysts and experts, Kim Jong Il chose his youngest son as successor
– Communist regime may possess as many as six nuclear weapons
– Incoming Obama administration likely to maintain status quo with Pyongyang
Around January 8, 2009, Kim Jong Il allegedly chose his youngest son, Kim Jong Un, to be his successor, surprising analysts and experts alike. According to the Yonhap News Agency, South Korea’s state news agency, Kim Jong Il may have finally elected a successor due to concerns over his health – Kim allegedly suffered a stroke in August. The selection comes amid worsening relations with Seoul and at the same time uncharacteristically positive gestures towards the United States (US). The scenario represents an exceptional opportunity for all parties involved to address the stalemate that has existed since six-party talks failed late last year.
Kim Jong Il’s Youngest Son
According to the Yonhap News Agency, Kim Jong Il has chosen his youngest son, Jong-un to be his heir, following in the footsteps of his father and Confucian tradition. According to the news report, senior officials of North Korea’s Communist party were instructed to pass the message down the ranks. However, conflicting reports are circulating which suggest that Kim Jong Il’s eldest son, Kim Jong Nam, has returned from self-imposed exile in Macao and may also be vying for the position of heir. While initially considered the likeliest choice as his successor, Jong Nam lost favor with his father after he was caught attempting to enter Japan on a false passport in 2001.
Although the youngest son, reports have suggested that Kim Jong Il is most comfortable with Jong Un’s intelligence and demeanor, particularly in light of Jong Nam’s indiscretions. Additionally, Kim’s middle son, Kim Jong Chol, is allegedly too effeminate to assume the role. As Jong-un is only in his mid-20s, it is likely that Jang Song-taek, Kim’s brother-in-law and a senior party official, would act as the heir’s guardian. With Kim appearing to have recovered from what some are describing as a stroke, Jong-un’s role will remain largely ceremonial. Should Kim pass in the next several years, there exists the distinct possibility, however, that the military will not permit Jong Un’s ascension, instead deciding to rule by military decree.
Pyongyang Claims to Have Weaponized Plutonium
Though North Korea has appeared to make some conciliatory gestures towards the United States on the eve of President-Elect Obama’s inauguration, its stance towards its southern neighbor has grown increasing vitriolic in recent weeks. Calling South Korean President Lee Myung-bak a “traitor” and accusing him of preparing a military provocation against the communist regime, Pyongyang appears to be adopting a heightened military posture against Seoul. Seoul’s Yonhap news agency said that the South has significantly increased its forces along its border with the North, though the presidential office and the Defense Ministry denied the report.
The heightened tensions come after Selig Harrison, a scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and expert on North Korea, said North Korean contacts told him that the country had “weaponized” enough plutonium for four to five nuclear weapons. The aggressive policy is likely an attempt to take advantage of the transition in US governance and to show a strengthened North Korean resolve, particularly in light of Kim Jong Il’s choice of a successor. We expect South Korea to remain on high alert in the coming weeks as North Korea attempts to position itself in a both aggressive and yet open stance in order to potentially take advantage of what could be a new US policy towards Pyongyang.
North Korean Debacle Awaits Obama
After uncharacteristically refraining from criticizing the United States in its annual New Year’s message, North Korea has allegedly contacted the Obama transition team through its United Nations mission office in New York. According to the JoongAng Ilbo newspaper, quoting a Seoul government source, Pyongyang may be attempting to determine whether Obama’s posture towards the regime will differ markedly from previous US administrations. According to the source, when referring to the response by the Obama transition team, “negative opinions far outpaced the positive views”.
The move to send Vice Foreign Minister Kim Kye Gwan to Obama’s January 20 inauguration was made last month, but according to the Yonhap news agency, US officials had already rejected the idea. The move, if true, constitutes what appears to be a conciliatory move by Pyongyang to redefine the US-North Korea relationship on the backs of an otherwise stalled agreement over the status of North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. While President-elect Obama is unlikely to move quickly to entertain Pyongyang’s advances, we do expect Obama’s posture towards the recalcitrant regime to be significantly more flexible than that of his predecessor. In the near to mid-term, we expect nuclear negotiations to restart between the two countries with concessions to follow by both sides shortly thereafter.
