Highlights
– More than 4.2 million Salvadorans were eligible to vote on January 18, 2009
– The win gives the FMLN momentum for the upcoming presidential election
– No group gained a majority in the Legislative Assembly
Election results in El Salvador on January 18, 2009 determined that the Farabundo
Marti Front for National Liberation (FMLN), a former guerrilla group that laid down
its arms in 1992, won the most seats in the national Legislative Assembly, giving it
an effective boost towards securing a presidential win in March 2009 and becoming
another leftist regime to join the greater trend within Latin America.
As recent poles indicated consistent numbers with this election, it is likely that FMLN
will not be challenged in its winnings, despite the country’s precedent for fraudulent
elections and civilians distrust over political tampering. It is likely that the new
administration will focus on bulking up social programs and local law
enforcement in the near to mid-term – rather than on the extreme socialist agendas
of other leftist nations in the region or of its former guerrilla ideals.
Background
The FMLN was formed October 10, 1980 as an umbrella group for five leftist guerilla organizations, known as the Fuerza Populares de Liberacion Farabundo Marti (FPL), the Ejército Revolucionario del Pueblo (ERP), the Resistencia Nacional (RN), the Partido Comunista Salvadoreño (PCS), the Partido Revolucionario de los Trabajadores Centroamericanos (PRTC), all of which were armed and fighting a US-backed military dictatorship. The FMLN waged a civil war with the state for 12-years until 1992 when both sides agreed to sign the Chapultepec Peace Accords that established the FMLN as a legitimate political party and the second major party in ARENA. In 1995, the five major internal parties within the FMLN dissolved themselves in order to make a more unified and fluid body.
Legislative and Executive Influence
After counting 56 percent of the votes on January 19, 2009, the progressive party won 36 of 84 deputies, more legislators than any other party, and gained control of several key cities, such as Santa Ana, the main departmental city of La Union, as well as all municipalities’ surrounding San Salvador. Furthermore, the number of its mayoral offices increased to over 80. Preliminary results tallied that the FMLN earned 49 percent of the total vote while ARENA secured only 40 percent.
The FMLN majority victory in the January election gives the former guerrilla party a great amount of momentum heading into the last two months of the presidential race in El Salvador. The FMLN candidate for president, Mauricio Funes, is a relatively moderate politician, and likely a strategic pick for the party shooting for its first presidential win.
• Leaders from the Council on Hemispheric Affairs, call Funes “a very non-revolutionary … Teflon-coated candidate preaching moderation.”
In addition, since the FMLN did not secure enough seats to rule the National Assembly entirely, the legislative bodies will have to strike deals and negotiate, while the smaller bodies will likely act as moderators on any extreme initiatives. The ARENA Party has never been in the position of an opposition group and we speculate that the group will be obstinate to cooperate in general politics. However, in order to approve any new legislation the FMLN and ARENA will need to work together, especially on measures that will require a two-thirds majority, or 56 votes, from the Legislative Assembly.
Outlook
A presidential victory for the FMLN would place El Salvador among more than a half-dozen Latin American nations that elected leftist leaders in recent years, including Venezuela, Bolivia, Nicaragua, Argentina, Honduras, Guatemala, Ecuador and Brazil.
However, El Salvador relies heavily on foreign investment, as well as remittances from Salvadorans living abroad and it is unlikely that the FMLN will take a radical leftist approach like several of its counterparts in the region. The FMLN will likely focus on winning public approval by initiating social programs to alleviate wide-spread poverty and to strengthen law enforcement in local municipalities to eradicate crime in the near to mid-term. We believe it is likely that Funes will secure the presidency in March 2009, as public polls indicate that civilians are unhappy with the status of the country that resulted over the last two decades ruled by the ARENA party.
The US Embassy in El Salvador has not indicated any specific threat of violence or protest in the region in response to the vote, however past elections commonly displayed vote buying practices, the use of false identifications, the transportation of foreigners or persons from outside municipalities, as well as the use of an inaccurate voter registry that operates from an outdated consensus. The public, especially student groups, are the most active in expressing concern over falsified election results and political brigades and tensions have been escalating since April 2008. As we feel it is unlikely there will be any threats targeting US Citizens in the near to mid-term, the nation is experiencing an unprecedented political shift and it is advised that all travelers and residents remain cautious in the near to mid-term.
