Highlights
– Pakistan launches crackdown against LeT-linked charity Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD)
– Despite crackdown, tensions between India and Pakistan remain high
– Pakistan unlikely to implement further anti-terrorism measures targeting the LeT in the near to mid-term
Since the November 26, 2008 attacks in Mumbai, tensions between India and Pakistan have been running high, prompting speculation that the two countries are heading toward a fourth war (Previous Report). In the wake of the attacks, both countries are actively engaged in talks attempting to improve relations and seeking to avoid conflict.
The international community, particularly the United States (US) and United Kingdom (UK), are actively involved in urging restraint in India and demanding the Pakistani government aggressively crack down against radical elements throughout the country, specifically in Pakistani-administered Kashmir where the group Lashkar-e-Toida (LeT) is primarily located.
Despite being blamed for the Mumbai attacks, the LeT has continued to deny responsibility, claiming to only target Indian forces and defense installations as part of its larger effort to force India out of its portion of the disputed Kashmir region. After weeks of reluctance and intense pressure from New Delhi, the Pakistani government began to crack down on the LeT, potentially avoiding a near-term armed conflict with India.
However, despite some initial anti-terrorism measures targeting the LeT, it is largely an attempt by Pakistan to appease India and the international community instead of a determined effort to weaken and permanently eliminate the Kashmir-based group. Pakistan’s civilian government remains weak and a large-scale crackdown on the LeT and other linked groups will largely mean reigning in the powerful Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency, something that does not appear feasible given the current state of affairs. In addition, a large-scale crackdown targeting the LeT and its major charity organization may result in further instability and violence. Overall, Pakistan’s unwillingness to reign in militant groups operating on its soil will foster a tense environment between New Delhi and Islamabad in the near-term.
Targeting the LeT
On December 12, 2008, the Pakistani government raided multiple offices, two schools, and a religious seminary run by Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD) in Pakistani-administered Kashmir, a charity regarded as a front group for the LeT. JuD offices were also raided in Multan, Bahawalpur, Rahim Yar Khan, Lahore, Karachi, and Quetta.
The raids followed the announcement by Islamabad that it would follow the recent decision by the United Nations (UN) placing Hafiz Saeed, founder of the LeT, on its terrorism sanctions list of people and organizations linked to al Qaeda and the Taliban. In addition, Pakistani authorities claimed that Saeed had been placed under house arrest at his residence in Lahore. Pakistani intelligence also reported that Maulana Masood Azhar, head of the militant Jaish-e-Mohammad (JEM) group, had been detained, but details regarding his whereabouts were unknown.
While the Pakistani government largely views the arrests and closure of multiple offices as concrete steps, India continues to demand that Pakistan do more. India has welcomed the initial steps, but New Delhi is looking for more concrete and long-lasting steps to weaken and eventually eliminate the LeT and other Kashmir-based groups. It is unlikely Pakistan will take further steps against the LeT or other linked-groups in the near-term, primarily because Pakistan is yet to fully blame the group for the attacks in Mumbai and continuing to demand “credible information and evidence.”
Violation of Air Space
On December 14, 2008, tensions intensified over allegations made by Pakistan that India “inadvertently” violated its airspace. Pakistan’s Air Force claimed that Indian attack aircraft flew over the Pakistani-administered part of Kashmir and the eastern city of Lahore. However, New Delhi denied the reports of an airspace violation.
The US believes that India’s air force began preliminary preparations for a possible attack against Pakistan in the immediate aftermath of the Mumbai attacks, likely planning to target LeT camps in Pakistani-administered Kashmir. Pentagon officials claim that India’s Air Force “went on alert” following the terrorist attack, indicative of how close the two nuclear-armed neighbors were to conflict.
There appears to be no evidence to suggest the latest supposed violation of air space was part of a larger plot to attack terrorist camps in Pakistan. However, in the past, both sides have been careful to avoid such territorial violations, as small mistakes or miscommunications can potentially lead to the outbreak of conflict. With tensions as high as they are, additional violations of air space, inadvertent or not, are likely to be avoided at all costs in the near-term.
Outlook
The overall question surrounding Pakistan’s latest attempts to crack down on LeT members and offices is whether the country is willing to abandon support for groups that have traditionally assisted in its conflict with India. Despite shutting down LeT offices and placing Hafiz Saeed under house arrest, Pakistan does not appear willing to go any further in the near to mid-term.
Evidence of this can be seen in Pakistan’s reluctance to accept India’s assessment that the LeT was responsible for the Mumbai attacks, or the fact it originated from Pakistani soil. India is adamant in demanding that Pakistan do more, including shutting down camps in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, a demand that is unlikely to be met in the near to mid-term.
Tensions between India and Pakistan will remain high for the near to mid-term, especially with Indian leaders recently labeling Pakistan as the “epicenter of terrorism.” Calls by New Delhi for further measures against the LeT are likely to go unheard, ultimately leaving the potential for armed conflict open. However, while India has ruled out military action, another LeT sponsored operation against India or its continued ability to operate freely in Kashmir will likely force India to respond militarily, primarily through the targeting of camps in Pakistani-administered Kashmir.
