Highlights
– Threat level of a terrorist attack nearing “critical”
– Counterterrorism chief claims the country is increasingly being mentioned in international terrorist chatter
– Film’s release is likely to provoke potentially violent unrest in the Netherlands and Islamic countries in the near-term
Likely to heighten tensions within the Muslim community in the Netherlands and abroad, a Dutch politician of Iranian origin, Ehsan Jami, is expected to release a ten-minute film titled “Interview with Prophet Mohammad.” Set for release on December 10, Human Rights Day, the film depicts the Prophet Mohammad in an interview setting wearing a mask. Jami plays the role of interviewer, asking questions on issues including sexual preference, Judaism, women’s rights, and leaving the religion. It is unclear which media outlet or website will broadcast the film. The Liberal Party of the Netherlands and the right wing Party for Freedom and Progress (PFF) have promised support in assisting Jami for disseminating the film.
• Jami previously had planned to release an animated short film about the life of the Prophet Mohammad. The animated film was to include a controversial scene involving the Prophet Mohammad and one of his wives. However, Jami abandoned plans to finalize the film due to fears of inadequate protection by Dutch police and after calls by Dutch Minister of Justice Ernst Hirsh Ballin to not increase tensions within Dutch society.
Jami’s film will likely continue to cast a negative light on the Netherlands in Islamic communities and nations regarding the country’s tone of debate on Islam. Moreover, with its deeply segregated second and third generation Muslim immigrant communities trapped between crime and poverty, the Netherlands will continue to be a likely target for homegrown and international terrorists in the near-term. If the new film is indeed released or leaked, potentially violent protests will likely occur in Amsterdam, and other major European cities in the near-term.
Threat Level Nearing Critical
According to the office of the National Coordinator for Counterterrorism, the threat level for a terrorist attack stands at “substantial,” one level below the highest rating of “critical.” A substantial threat level suggests that “there is a realistic possibility that an attack will occur” and “ radicalization and recruitment are taking place on a significant scale (Source).” Moreover, the nation’s Counterterrorism chief, Tjibbe Joustra, recently stated that the threat is approaching the highest level. Although not disclosing specific details, Joustra claims the country is consistently included in terrorist chatter and conversations abroad.
Fitna
According to CT Chief Joustra, the current threat level is mostly a consequence of the controversial anti-Islam short film, “Fitna,” released in March 2008 and made by Party for Freedom (PVV) MP Geert Wilders. Following the film’s release via a file sharing website, protests erupted across several countries including Pakistan, Afghanistan, Indonesia and Malaysia. However, while authorities have arrested several suspected Islamic extremists in the Netherlands in recent years, there have not been any domestic terrorist attacks.
Leading up to the release of “Fitna,” heated debate suggested that violent protests would ensue once the film was released. However, while some peaceful protests did occur in Amsterdam, the widely feared violent demonstrations failed to develop. Likely a contributor is the fact that the film showed a compilation of images already public from terrorist attacks in the United States and Spain. Moreover, premier Jan Peter Balkenende reinforced the government’s stance on the film. In an official statement from the Ministry of General Affairs, Balkenende stated:
“The film equates Islam with violence. We reject this interpretation. The vast majority of Muslims reject extremism and violence. In fact, the victims are often also Muslims. We therefore regret that Mr. Wilders has released this film. We believe it serves no purpose other than to cause offence. But feeling offended must never be used as an excuse for aggression and threats. The government is heartened by the initial restrained reactions of Dutch Muslim organizations (Source).”
Outlook
While the reaction to “Fitna” was largely regarded as mild, Jami’s film is likely to be more controversial in nature as it directly depicts the Prophet Mohammad, something that is forbidden in Islam. The decision to publish the controversial Danish cartoons that depicted the Prophet Mohammad in 2006 highlighted the potential consequences of such a publication as widespread violent protests ensued on a global level. In the same way, Jami’s film will likely place the Netherlands at a more serious risk for targeting through violent unrest and or Islamic terrorism in the long-term.
