Highlights
– Latin America remains potential shelter of Islamic extremists
– Increased anti-US sentiment among leaders allows for Iranian influence
– Iranian presence in region over the long-term could worsen security situation
Latin America has historically had the potential for becoming a coordination sanctuary for Islamic extremism (Previous Report). United States (US) Intelligence officials have admitted that since as early as the 1990s, they have monitored the region out of concern for possible spreading radical Islamic influence.
More recently, due mainly to post-2001 US-led operations in both Iraq and Afghanistan and interest in neighboring nations, namely Iran, Islamic extremists have been and will continue to be interested in below the radar safe havens located outside the Middle East. As such, Latin America remains a tempting shelter and will be a security concern for the mid to long-term.
The Potential For Attack
The recent spread of leftist, populist leaders in the region and their growing relationships with predominantly anti-US nations has further increased the threat of Islamic extremists impacting the US via Latin America. At this time, however, there is no significant intelligence indicating there is an impending threat and/or that any particular extremist group has the capability to attack the US via a Latin American corridor. However, diminished US influence in Latin America in recent years has led to the development of increasing anti-US sentiment, both politically and culturally, and to the creation of potentially radical Islamic-friendly nation-states.
The US Department of State’s (DoS) annual Country Reports on Terrorism highlights that “there were no known operational cells of Islamic terrorists” in the region, but it maintained that “pockets of ideological supporters and facilitators in South America and the Caribbean lent financial, logistical, and moral support to terrorist groups in the Middle East.” Thus, the threat of a transnational terrorist attack remains moderately low for most countries in the hemisphere at this time, but the growing role of anti-US actors in Latin America continues to swell the possibility of future conflict.
For example, nations such as Nicaragua and Venezuela, with their outspoken anti-US leaders, Daniel Ortega and Hugo Chavez respectively, have been forging stronger relationships with Iran, a nation whose alleged support of Islamic extremism and continued noncompliance with its international obligations relating to the development of weapons of mass destruction programs has given and will continue to impact US interests. Most recently, leftist Ecuadorian president Rafael Correa signed up to twelve agreements in the fields of industry, energy, oil, banking, health and commerce with the Middle Eastern nation (Source).
The Consequences of Influence
As officials in Washington continue to denote the Iranian regime as the world’s “central banker of terrorism,” trade and investment deals between Iran and Latin America have bellied to well over US$20 billion. This figure is likely to rise in the years to come, thereby allowing Iran to continue altering the balance of power beyond its immediate borders through regional proxies (Previous Report).
An influx of trade and investment does not in and of itself threaten the US or its interests; to the extent further Iranian inroads in the Americas are contained (Source). However, these issues should be continually scrutinized with vigilance. With US resources tied-up elsewhere in the world, and Iran’s track record of fueling the activities of Hamas , the Palestinian Islamic Jihad , and Hezbollah , for example, it is unlikely that Iran’s growing presence in Latin America is solely humanitarian or constructive in nature (Previous Report). By his own words, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is spreading Iranian influence so that like-minded nations may unite over a “common enemy” — doubtlessly alluding to the US.
A Look Ahead
With numerous Latin American governments making only slight headway in improving their counterterrorism capabilities and tightening of their border security, the threat of increased Islamic radicalism remains moderate in the region. The combination of corrupt, weak governments and ineffective institutions has limited true progress in the fight against extremism. This is also exemplified in Mexico where the government is fighting an increasingly corrosive war on drug cartels.
Amplified Iranian influence in the region likely worsens the security situation by boosting anti–US sentiment and introducing potentially radical-Islamic sympathizers into Latin America. While it is the sovereign right of any nation to trade with or invest in any other nation, that alone does not justify the spread of radical-Islamic, anti-US rhetoric and/or action, which is synonymous with Iran’s current regime and ideology.
Under the guise of foreign aid, humanitarian missions, and trade, Iran will continue to bolster its posture in Latin America. As such, the US should posture to counteract the Middle Eastern nation’s influence by continuing to support pro-US, democratic governments in the region through direct and indirect foreign aid and enhancing the ability of friendly nations to combat and prevent the spread of extremism.
