Highlights
– “Dear Leader” may have suffered debilitating stroke
– Who will succeed Kim Jong Il still remains unknown
– Significant political reforms unlikely in the near to mid-term
Kim Jong Il, the leader of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), has not been seen in public since August 14, 2008 fueling speculation that the “Dear Leader” may be gravely ill. After failing to attend a large military parade on September 9, 2008, media speculation – fueled mostly by anonymous South Korean, Chinese and United States intelligence leaks – has skyrocketed as to the whereabouts of the leader of one of the world’s few remaining communist states.
Most speculation centers on Kim Jong Il’s alleged recluse lifestyle, excessive indulgence in alcohol and taste for extravagance. Whether King Jong Il is as excessive and eccentric as the media suggests, the fact remains that little substantive information exists on the man, his personality, and his current state of health. What is known with greater certainty is that the man is roughly 66 years old and has been the head of the most secret regime in the world for the past fifteen years. Further, should Kim Jong Il be gravely ill, it is likely that a transition will occur –versus the collapse of the communist state – and will likely occur without the outside world’s awareness or influence.
Likely Successors
If history is any guide, Kim Jong Il will likely nominate one of his sons as his successor, just as his father, Kim Il Sung, nominated his son as successor in 1973. However, Kim’s eldest son was disgraced by an attempt to visit Tokyo Disneyland under a false passport, his middle son is allegedly too ‘girlish’ for Kim’s taste, and his youngest son is allegedly a mere 22-years old. Further, unlike his own tutelage under his father, rarely have any of the sons appeared in public with Kim.
Kim Jong Nam
Kim Jong Il’s first marriage was to a famous North Korean movie star named Song Hye-rim. With her, Kim fathered his first son, Kim Jong Nam. As eldest son, it appeared that Jong Nam would have been groomed as his father’s successor a number of years ago. However, in 2001, Jong Nam was arrested in Japan along with two women and a young boy, allegedly his son, attempting to visit Tokyo Disneyland. The event was allegedly viewed critically by Kim and has likely removed Jong Nam as a possible successor.
Kim Jong Chol
As Kim Sung Il looked unfavorably on his son’s first marriage, the relationship eventually eroded freeing Kim to pursue other women. Shortly after his first son was born, Kim met and later married a famous dancer named Ko Yong Hui. In 1979, Young Hui gave birth to Kim’s second son, Jon Chol, and in 1981 she gave birth to Kim’s third son, Jong Woon. With Jong Nam apparently disgraced and living in China, and Jong Woon the younger, and therefore less likely to succeed, Jong Chol may yet rise to his father’s position of power. However, further complicating matters is the speculation that Kim does not see Jong Chol as sufficiently ‘mannish’ to replace him and as such may have suggested that his youngest, Jong Woon, would make for a better replacement.
Chung Sung Taek
As Kim Jong Il’s children are both too young and inexperienced to lead, some analysts suspect that the most likely successor – albeit temporarily – would be Chang Sung Taek. Formerly vice-director of Korea’s Worker’s Party, and brother-in-law to Kim, Sung Taek was assumed to be a likely successor to Kim’s rule until his sudden ouster in 2004.
On November 25 2004, South Korea’s National Assembly heard testimony that Song Taek had been purged from his position as vice-director. However, in October 2007, the Korean Central News Agency confirmed that Chang had been promoted to the newly recreated post of first vice-director of the Workers’ Party of Korea, with oversight responsibility for the police, judiciary, and other areas of internal security.
Though Kim may have once wished to remove Sung Taek from a position of power to assure a smooth transition to one of his sons, Kim’s age and health may have influenced his decision to bring his brother-in-law back into the fray until his chosen successor is better suited to fill the role. Often seeing accompanying Kim in public, and allegedly head of North Korean foreign affairs before his purging, Sung Taek will likely play a major role in the transition that takes place after Kim’s passing.
Outlook
If Kim Jong Il died suddenly, power is likely to pass to a military junta, or to Chang Sung Taek directly, as few signs have emerged that Kim has chosen any one of his sons to be his successor. Unlike his father, Kim has not been seen in public with one or any of his sons, and but for one meeting with China’s Hu Jintao, none of the sons has had any significant face time with foreign officials.
Should one of the sons become heir-apparent, it is likely that Jong Chol will assume the role. Until he has been properly groomed for the position, however, some form of collective leadership is likely to emerge, perhaps headed by Chung Sung Taek acting as a temporary public figurehead and mentor to the young leader. However turbulent the transition, it is unlikely to significantly change the status quo in North Korea. The regime’s grip on power is unlikely to wane significantly with the loss of the “Dear Leader” and Western governments are likely to continue to face an enigmatic and nuclear-armed regime for the foreseeable future.
