Highlights
– Ruling Workers Party (PT) candidate unexpectedly defeated in Sao Paolo
– PT coalition partner’s win in Rio de Janeiro offsets Sao Paolo defeat, indicates coalition still maintains support
– Mayoral support and President Lula’s endorsement likely to have largest impact on deciding next president
Over the weekend of October 25-26, 2008, thirty mayoral runoff elections occurred within Brazil, 11 of which took place in state capitals. Mayoral elections are generally seen as strong indicators of presidential elections, as mayors are key forces to securing votes for presidential candidates they endorse. During the first round of mayoral voting on October 5, 2008, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s (Lula) coalition allies won races in 13 of the 26 state capitals, indicating the strong impact of President Lula’s high approval rating. Lula’s Workers Party (PT) currently governs 17 of the country’s 79 largest cities, and its coalition partners control a number of smaller cities and towns.
While runoff elections resulted in some surprises for President Lula’s party, the ruling coalition will likely retain power through the 2010 presidential election, with President Lula’s endorsement carrying the strongest weight for any candidate.
Workers Party Defeated in Sao Paolo
In Sao Paolo, the country’s largest city, incumbent Mayor Gilberto Kassab of the conservative Democrat Party beat Marta Suplicy of the Workers Party by 21 percentage points. Despite enjoying support from President Lula and holding former positions as Sao Paolo mayor and tourism minister, Suplicy’s loss demonstrated the waning power of the party within this key city.
The loss increases pressure on Lula’s Worker Party to ensure his designated successor is elected in the 2010 presidential race, likely leading the party to concentrate campaigning activities in the area in the mid to long-term.
Rio de Janeiro Win Boosts Hope
In the second largest city of Rio de Janeiro, the Workers Party scored a victory in the win of a candidate from its coalition member party, the Democratic Movement Party. Eduadro Paes beat former guerilla Fernando Gabeira of the Green Party by less than two percentage points. Despite, or perhaps because of, Gabeira’s notorious background, he was supported by several Brazilian investors, including former central bank chief Arminio Fraga and billionaire Eike Batista.
Gabeira had originally finished the first-round voting on October 5th six percentage points behind Paes, and was unable to make up the deficit during the run-off vote on October 26. Gabeira had hoped to join a number of other former revolutionaries who currently hold government positions in Brazil – in 1969, the president’s social communication minister and current chief of staff, a potential presidential contender in 2010, both assisted Gabeira in the protest kidnapping of a United States (US) ambassador. Rio’s conservative elite was likely unable to look past his revolutionary background, and see his recent image as an “anti-corruption” campaigner.
Presidential Elections in 2010
While the Workers Party did not fair as well as expected in Sao Paolo, the success of the coalition in Rio de Janeiro, as well as wins for PT in the state capitals Recife and Fortaleza, will likely maintain the coalition’s governmental majority in the mid-term. While President Lula’s high-approval rating among the general population will make his endorsement a coveted pledge among potential candidates, global economic downturn is expected to have negative consequences on Brazil’s economy, and could hurt approval for President Lula’s economic successes in the near-term.
President Lula must continue to demonstrate his successful growth for the country to maintain his popularity, as well as ensure the successful win by his designated successor. The loss by the PT candidate in Sao Paolo demonstrates that the party will not have a guaranteed victory in 2010, but likely hopes to capitalize on President Lula’s successes to retain power.
