Highlights
– Sri Lankan troops claim to be just two kilometers from Kilinochchi
– Officials have pledged to crush the guerrillas by the end of the year
– Tamil lawmakers threaten to resign from India’s parliament unless PM Singh presses Sri Lanka to stop a military offensive against Tamil Tiger rebels
Thirty-three government troops were killed on October 18, 2008 marking the country’s biggest battlefield loss in months, as fighting between the Liberation Tamil Tigers of Eelam (LTTE) and the Sri Lankan military intensified.
President Mahinda Rajapaksa said on October 6, 2008 that government forces were a mere two kilometers away from Kilonochchi, the LTTE’s administrative capital. Since that time, reports have indicated that government forces breached the final LTTE defense line protecting the town.
With plans to end the war by the end of the year, we expect a stepped up offensive in the coming weeks and months as the Sri Lanka military continues its assault on LTTE strongholds.
Sri Lanka Says Troops Seize Key Rebel Village
According to military reports, troops seized a strategic village from separatist Tamil Tiger rebels following a two-month battle, cutting off a key supply route and moving the government one step closer to capturing the militants’ de facto capital in northern Sri Lanka.
Significant gains have followed a massive government push against LTTE strongholds in recent weeks. Though casualties have been high on both sides – and numbers of killed are difficult to come by with a media blackout in the region – it appears that the Sri Lankan military has made deep cuts into the final defensive barriers of the Tamil capital.
The battle for Vannerikulam village, about 15 miles west of the rebel capital, was particularly difficult because the LTTE had built a six-mile-long dirt mound from which they had a clear view of the surrounding territory.
With supply routes slowly being choked off from LTTE territory, and the Sri Lankan military finally in a position to encircle rebel forces, the situation appears to be largely in the government’s favor. We expect clashes to grow more violent as the Sri Lankan government gets closer to Kilonochchi. Additionally, we expect suicide bombings to increase in the near-term.
Indian Constraints May Limit Colombo’s Moves
President Mahinda Rajapaksa said on October 6th that government forces were a mere two kilometers away from Kilonochchi, the LTTE’s administrative capital. Additionally, recent reports indicated over the weekend that government forces had breached the final LTTE defense line protecting the town.
As pressure mounts on the rebels in Sri Lanka’s northern and eastern provinces, India’s Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh, is preparing to send his foreign minister to Sri Lanka to deliver a stern warning to the Colombo government amid reports that one of the most crucial battles in the 25-year war against the Tamil Tigers is quickly approaching.
Nearly 40 politicians from the ruling Dravida Munnettra Kazhagam (DMK) party in India’s Tamil Nadu state submitted their resignations on October 17, 2008 in an attempt to put pressure on the government to intervene in Sri Lanka. Tamil Nadu is home to about 55 million Tamils who have ancestral links with the Tamils in Sri Lanka. The DMK is allied to Singh’s Congress party and it gave the government two weeks to take action or face being brought down.
Facing pressure by his own government to crush the LTTE, while at the same time expecting constraints from Prime Minister Singh, has left Sri Lankan President Rajapaksa in a difficult situation. In the near-term, Rajapaksa will have to tread carefully to help his allies in the Indian government not lose an important political bloc while at the same time not losing the opportunity to end the conflict with the LTTE.
Outlook
In the near to mid-term, the military will face significant challenges as the rebels exploit the monsoon season to their advantage. The heavy rains will make the army’s tanks less effective on soggy ground and poor weather will also mute the power of the air force.
With Sri Lanka forces close to finally overpowering the LTTE, however, it is unlikely that India’s petitions for greater diplomacy and restraint will have much effect on Colombo’s decision-making. However, Velupillai Prabhakaran, head of the LTTE, has been a resourceful and resilient adversary to the Colombo government for some time and we do not expect the rebel movement to fall in the near-term, despite the gains made by the Sri Lanka military.
