Highlights
– Two dead and over 400 injured in most recent clash with police
– Short-term resolution to impasse unlikely
– King to meet with Prime Minister in coming days
Thailand’s political stalemate took a violent turn October 7, 2008 when protestors clashed with police officers near the country’s parliament building. The result was at least two dead and over 400 injured after police fired Chinese-manufactured tear gas to disperse the crowds obstructing all exits from the building.
In response to what protestors have labeled harsh police tactics, another protest has been planned for later this week. Anti-government activists claim that the Chinese manufactured tear gas cartridges are more dangerous than US anti-crowd measures, and blame one death and numerous injuries on the devices.
In what many anti-government activists are hailing as a regal endorsement, Thailand’s Queen Sirikit attended the funeral of Angkana Radappanyawuthi, the 28-year-old protestor killed when struck by a canister fired by police.
The tacit regal endorsement, coupled with the opposition’s seemingly endless resolve against Prime Minister Wongsawat, is likely to lead to the dissolution of the current ruling coalition and Wongsawat’s eventual ouster.
Current Impasse Difficulties
Speculation abounds about how or when the current crisis in Bangkok will resolve itself. A middle ground appears seemingly unreachable given the demands of the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD), an assortment of businessmen, intellectuals and upper-class elites that purport to support the monarchy.
PAD wants the current prime minister, Somchai Wongsawat, to resign and for Thailand’s structure of government to be revamped into a system of representation wherein roughly 70 percent of parliamentarians would be appointed while a mere 30 percent would be elected. Claiming that support for the People’s Power Party (PPP) is based on misguided and ignorant rural class voters based predominantly in Thailand’s agricultural areas, PAD has openly advocated a class-based struggle in favor of the wealthy.
PAD’s recalcitrance, coupled with the PPP’s unwillingness to call new elections, has created a veritable impasse between the two sides with neither entirely certain whether a compromise is even possible.
Possible Resolutions
With PAD protestors vowing to intensify their campaign in the coming days, we foresee the following scenarios as possible resolutions to the current stalemate:
• Though General Anupong Paochinda has stated explicitly that he sees no positive resolution from another military coup – it would be the country’s eighteenth – should violence increase in the streets the possibility remains that the military may unseat the current coalition.
• Prime Minister Wongsawat may decide to order the police to crackdown on protestors, but that decision is not likely given the strong likelihood that a violent clash with protestors could reinvigorate absentee protestors that have returned to their homes.
• The crisis may continue on for weeks longer, possibly months, as PAD is composed of well-financed and determined individuals who appear to have the means to continue their campaign into the foreseeable future.
• As the country’s Election Commission has already found the ruling PPP guilty of vote buying, there is a strong possibility that the Supreme Court will uphold the lower court’s verdict and disband the party. However, the PPP has already set up a shell political party for just such a contingency that would enable their members to run for, and likely win office again.
• PAD’s protestors have waned over the many weeks since the Government House, the prime minister’s office, was overrun. The chance exists that the campaign could fizzle out should PAD fail to gain any concessions from the government in the near-term.
• King Bhumibol, largely silent since the PAD began its campaign, is scheduled to meet with Prime Minister Wongsawat in the coming days. The monarchy has resolved a number of Thailand’s political disputes in the past, and continues to wield significant influence in the country’s internal affairs.
Any solution to the political crisis will require bridging the gap between the country’s royalist bureaucratic elite who are supported by the country’s urban middle class and the pro-Thaksin forces supported by the country’s rural masses. With such divergent positions between the two sides, a quick and painless compromise is almost entirely out of the question.
Outlook
Given the financing and apparent cohesion of PAD support – the group continues to lay claim to the grounds of Government House and was able to surround and largely shut down parliament – we anticipate the protests in the country’s capital to continue into the near to mid-term. With results from the Supreme Court still pending, coupled with the upcoming release of the country’s National Counter Corruption Commission report of a decade-long malfeasance case against the prime minister, PAD may be waiting to make its final push after those results are released.
In the meantime, the country’s rural population appears resentful of PAD’s characterization of the group as ‘misguided and ignorant’ but have yet to organize against the PPP. While we do not expect the country’s leadership to encourage the rural population to act as buffer against the urban elite, the chance exists that clashes could yet occur should the PAD continue to make disparaging comments against the group.
